AUGUSTA, Ga. – For the first nine holes on Saturday, the points list on the Masters was packed. After a weather delay, Hideki Matsuyama blew the second nine at Augusta National and shot 30 here en route to a 7-under-65-year-old in the only lap at this spot.
So can anyone catch him? If so, who?
We tackle the biggest questions at the end of the final round at Augusta National:
How much did an hour of rain on Saturday change these Masters?
Bob Harig: It would be hard to say that it was anything other than great. Matsuyama increased, and the momentum stuck for Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. The latter two were in jeopardy when the horn sounded, but little could go after it. Thomas played the last nine holes in 3 over par, including a triple 8 on the 13th hole that led to a 75; he said it’s like playing two different courses. Spieth made a nice birdie in 10th place, but could only pass one more to go to position 72 with a deviating position. Meanwhile, Matsuyama is warming up, making an eagle and four birdies and adapting him better than mitigating conditions that seem to confuse others while allowing him to perform.
Michael Collins: The delay changed everything – and nothing changed. Momentum is not easily quantified. What it did do was slow down the greens. Matsuyama adapted the fastest. If there had not been a delay, would it have happened? It’s a movie that Disney can make about a parallel universe.
Wright Thompson: Here’s a bit of post hoc ergo propter hoc (shouting ‘West Wing’ fans), as it’s hard to know if Matsuyama’s boom was due to the delay or due to his ease with the later holes. But it is impossible to ignore his run when the rain stops and he gets out of his car in the parking lot, where he is moving through his phone. The hour of rain has changed the Saturday round a lot, it seems.
Mark Schlabach: What was surprising to me was that some players like Matsuyama took advantage of the friendlier conditions and adapted quickly. While other players like Thomas, Spieth, Tony Finau and Justin Rose struggled to adapt to the slower greens. I think there is no doubt about the long delay of JT and Rose and others, but they all played the same track. I do find it ironic that Matsuyama, who is not exactly known for his ability, was able to do it better than anyone else.
Nick Pietruszkiewicz: Before it rained, Rose was down at 7 and kept a one-stroke lead. The track was lightning fast. When the players returned, they found a very different Augusta National. The place was receptive. Approach shots that pulled and went over the green before the rain came were now checked. Downhole holes do not have to be careful. And Matsuyama took advantage and presented a show. Is it fair to say it was all because of the rain? No. But … he was ten to ten holes before the course changed. He played the last eight, all after halftime, in 6 under.
Who on this leaderboard has the best chance of chasing Hideki Matsuyama?
Hairy: Xander Schauffele. He is the highest ranked number 6 in the world and four times winner who has competed in several majors, and he has the advantage of playing with Matsuyama. By being in the last group, Schauffele gives an advantage as he can see the player he needs up close.
Collins: Shovel. He tends to a serious low round. Now that he’s in the final group with Matsuyama, he can quickly exert the most pressure if Matsuyama slips. Schauffele will not be afraid for the moment.
Thompson: I would say Will Zalatoris because I want it to be true. For this I have no factual basis, only a deep love for the underdog and a tendency to dominate such feelings.
Schlabach: I was tempted to take Schauffele before the tournament started, but resisted taking the bait again. But the man has to win a major at some point, right? He is too talented and has been there too many times not to win at least one. He has had seven top-10 majors in his career, including top-six finishes in each of his U.S. Open results. He finished second behind Tiger Woods at the 2019 Masters and finished 17th in November. Schauffele almost missed the part of the process. I think he’s looking forward to being in the final group on Sunday.
Pietruszkiewicz: Logic, and most of the rest of this crew, says Schauffele. I’m with them. Although he does not win here, he has a strong history: after a T-50 in his first appearance, he has had a T-2 and a T-17 the past two. And Schauffele is one of the few within the reasonable margin of four strokes. On top of that, an early exchange of birds with Matsuyama changes everything in a hurry.
Which of the top 10 on the leaderboard do you trust the least?
Hairy: It’s hard to go further than someone who is more than four strokes back because it takes a lot to try to catch a player from so far behind. So, among the four players standing at -7, the choice is Zalatoris, simply because it is his first Masters, and those who are here for the first time usually do not win. It’s actually 42 years since such an event. Zalatoris is more than capable on this stage and made a sixth position at the US Open and performed very well in his first appearance in Augusta National. But Sunday pins and Masters pressure are a lot to overcome.
Collins: Corey Conners. He doesn’t hit enough greens and just posts OK. I struggle to believe that he is the one who is going to catch lightning in a bottle as opposed to an accident.
Thompson: Sal Zalatoris. Sigh.
Schlabach: Dare I say Matsuyama? He has not won in more than three years; his last win was at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational in August 2017. This is only the second time he has completed a major round with a lead; he shared the 36-hole lead during the 2017 PGA Championship and finished for fifth place. However, what worries me most about Matsuyama is his putter. He achieved 166th place in the Masters in strokes he achieved: sit (-.296 strokes). Clearly, he took advantage of the slower and softer greens after the rain delay and needed only 25 holes in the third round, which was equal to Abraham Ancer for the least in the field. On Sunday, the greens of Augusta National will be firmer and faster, and the locations of the pins will be much more treacherous. On top of that, she will shoot nerves on all cylinders.
Pietruszkiewicz: I know that winning the Valero Texas Open last week was supposed to make me feel more confident in Spieth. For some reason it does not. Did you see some of the places he hit it on Saturday? You can not ask Augusta National the magic too many times. Finally, the big numbers appear – and he already has a triple and a double on the map this week. So, no, I do not trust him.
How far is too far back?
Hairy: No one wins back by more than six strokes. There are too many players to contend with, even if Matsuyama is struggling. That said, I like Justin Rose to shoot a low number, just like Thursday. He struggled a bit to hold the lead and shoot 72-72 after his opening 65. He is now four behind, he knows and loves the track, and he is well aware that he can make a low number set. And he will probably have to do it.
Collins: Spieth at 5 below is on the edge. Does he look like a man ready to drop the second round of 65 at the Masters this week? (This is what Matsuyama did on Saturday). If you answered yes, you’re related to him or her caddy. Schauffele is the one I think will shoot Sunday 66 and Matsuyama will force to follow up his big Saturday round.
Thompson: I think 4 below is too far back and, with the reasoning, I think Spieth can charge a Sunday fee. He was up and down, and the process of climbing again – in the strong headwinds of fame and expectation – certainly brought toughness, self-awareness and confidence.
Schlabach: It’s probably six shots back if Matsuyama struggles and does not make me look like a dummy. Spieth is the only man with a green jacket and the only candidate to have won in the past year, but he will have to draw better than he has had so far.
Pietruszkiewicz: History suggests that only four players – Schauffele, Rose, Zalatoris and Marc Leishman – have a chance. They all stand within four shots of Matsuyama. No player has fallen behind more than four since Nick Faldo won the green jacket in the collapse of Greg Norman in 1996. The last winner of any major of more than four strokes back is Phil Mickelson at The Open in 2013 at Muirfield. But let’s go beyond logic. Why? Well, why not? So … do you remember how I said I did not trust Spieth? Well, he’s also the one I think can charge the Sunday and put electricity in place. It is he who can cause this reduced number of customers to make enough noise that you would think Augusta National was full. If anyone comes back from the road, it’s Spieth. So that means my answer is that 6 shots back is the limit.
OK, who won?
Hairy: Schauffele in a strange good place. He has nothing to lose. Four shots is a lot to make up. He has not won in more than two years, despite giving himself several changes. He will have to hit many more greens than Saturday (11), but Schauffele certainly has the ability to shoot a low one – and Matsuyama may need help.
Collins: Matsuyama. He does not let bad shots bother him and draws inspiration from Tsubasa Kajitani, the 17-year-old woman who won the Augusta National Women’s Amateur last week, just before the opening of these Masters.
Thompson: Matsuyama. He is ready and ready for the spotlight.
Schlabach: Shovel. The man is over because he won a major. He liked to play with the red-hot Matsyuama on Saturday; he will especially enjoy chasing him down on Sunday. I think Schauffele learned from his mistakes in the last round in 2019.
Pietruszkiewicz: Shovel. He’s been here before. He came close. And being forced to be aggressive from the start can help. He has to chase if he wants a green jacket. He posted 4 under 68 on Saturday. I think he’s going to lower a few strokes on Sunday and win.