As Bernalillo County is on track for green reopening, the data expert weighs the prospects
After reporting about 700 cases per day at the end of November, the country has an average of 7 days of 117 days as of Thursday afternoon, which shows improvement but is still above the point of about 54 cases needed to to reach green level.
The state began the red-to-green framework in December, which created two requirements for the provinces to reach the green level. For two weeks, they will both have to have a positive percentage of less than 5% and stay below an average of 8 cases per 100,000 people.
As for the latter measure, the 7-day average of 117 cases in Bernalillo County is 17 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
For more perspective, KOB 4 spoke with Hubert Allen, a biostatistician in New Mexico who graduated from the Johns Hopkins program outlining national information on COVID-19.
“We have had a lot of decline in the highest increase in outbreaks,” he said.
He wonders if some people have shied away from being tested during the recent winter storms, but he thinks the data is promising nonetheless.
Asked when Bernalillo County could jump into the green, Allen said, “I would still say it’s four to six weeks if you want to pin me down.”
The Secretary for Health and Human Services in New Mexico, dr. David Scrase, said that the vaccine could prevent a future boom and that people’s behavior could do the same.
“Will human nature change? And I think it can. I think we learn. We saw what happened when we last and the time before let it down, and I think a lot of people lost family members and friends in that big third wave. ”
State leaders stress that all New Mexicans must continue to use security measures.