What’s worse than 2020 in America?

The year began with protests. Led by a new law that sets the first religious test for Indian citizenship, Muslims and secularists have arranged noisy sit-ins. Protesters feared that the government would combine the new law, which promotes naturalization for non-Muslims from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, with a proposed national register of citizens to deny the Muslim minority of India. The pandemic cut short the protests, but not before the Hindu-Muslim clashes in Delhi in February killed more than 50 people, most of whom were Muslims.

India is slowly responding to the virus threat, but at the end of March, Mr. Modi suddenly declared a nationwide exclusion with only four hours notice, leaving many people in cities without jobs, money or transportation. The television screens soon filled with images of thousands of newly unemployed migrant workers moving to distant villages.

Experts differ on the question of whether Mr. Modi’s closure was a disaster or a reaction that nevertheless saved lives. Either way, India is one of the countries that hit the pandemic the hardest. As for the total formally reported cases, it only leaves the US behind. On Tuesday, 10.2 million Indians captured Covid-19 and 147,901 died. Given sketchy reporting in poorer parts of the country, the true numbers are almost certainly higher.

In terms of officially recorded cases and deaths per million people, India looks better than most Western countries, but worse than its Asian counterparts, including densely populated Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. East Asian success stories like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam are almost in a different universe.

The Indian economy slowed even before the pandemic, thanks in part to a bizarre cash ban in 2016 and the rock-wide nationwide imposition of a complex tax on goods and services. The pandemic pushed it over a cliff. The International Monetary Fund estimates that India’s gross domestic product will shrink by 10.3% by the end of the fiscal year, the worst performance since independence in 1947. Among the group of 20 economies, only Argentina and Italy are likely to contract more sharply. In terms of per capita income, India has lagged behind Bangladesh.

In addition to the problems of mr. Modi, China has chosen the moment of disorder in India to investigate weaknesses along a controversial 2,200-mile border on the Himalayan border. In May, hundreds of troops of the People’s Liberation Army pitched tents in areas claimed by both countries, blocking Indian access to traditional patrol routes and threatening access to an Indian strategic air base. In June, Chinese troops armed with nail-laden clubs and iron bars were wrapped in barbed wire braided with Indian soldiers. The clash killed 20 Indians and an unspecified number of Chinese, the worst loss of life on the border between China and India in more than 50 years.

India has responded by banning numerous Chinese applications including TikTok and WeChat,

and by strengthening military cooperation with the US, Japan and Australia. But despite diplomatic talks, a heavy military build-up on both sides and eight rounds of military negotiations, the PLA troops show no signs of evacuating the newly occupied area five times as large as Manhattan.

What does all this mean for mr. Modi? It depends on whether Indian politics follows its traditional pattern of punishing leaders who fail to deliver on their promises, or whether it has entered a new phase of Hindu nationalist rise.

If history offers clues, he has cause for concern. In 1971, Indira Gandhi comfortably won her second national election. Two years later, amid high inflation, student protests erupted in much of the country threatening national stability. In 2009, the Congress Party went to the polls with the largest national mandate in nearly two decades. Two years later, a growing anti-corruption movement undermined the legitimacy of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Yet the prediction of mr. Modi’s downfall be premature. To begin with, he dominates Indian politics in a way that has not been seen since the 1980s. Many of the local media act more like a lap dog than a watchdog, which strengthens the government’s talking points and saves its critics. The opaque fundraising system gives the ruling Bharatiya Janata party a fatter purse than all its opponents combined. Many ardent supporters believe that India is in the early stages of a glorious Hindu revival. These are not people who tend to switch loyalties based on IMF projections.

Meanwhile, the incompetent leader of the Congress party, Rahul Gandhi, a dynastic politician of the fourth generation, symbolizes a faltering opposition short of ideas and charisma. Last month, the BJP and its allies retained power in Bihar, the third most populous state of India.

The year ends as it began, with protests. Since the end of November, tens of thousands of farmers on Delhi’s borders have been campaigning to protest meaningful but politically risky new laws that give the private sector a greater role in agriculture. Mr. Modi can overcome this challenge as he has had others in the past as well. But 2020 was the most difficult year he has experienced as prime minister.