DPReview has just released its annual prediction video for the camera industry where Chris and Jordan discuss what they think will come from the top producers. I think they are mostly on the nose.
2020 was a kind of year of ‘upset of the apple cart’. I think that if it were not for the COVID-19 pandemic, we would have seen different decisions from the big camera manufacturers, and that many of them looked at what they could do this year, and if they found that they had another years could wait take them to it.
If I look at next year, this is what I (along with Chris and Jordan) think you can expect from the big names in 2021.
Canon
Chris and Jordan are properly in their analysis of Canon’s position: the company is really in good shape as far as the top point is concerned. Just after the launch of the EOS R, Canon spent a majority of its time expanding its lens setup. By the time it finally released the R5 and R6, there was a robust lens library to back up the two cameras.
The thing is, almost everything Canon sells in the RF line is extraordinarily expensive, making it challenging for anyone on a limited budget to get a tone in Canon’s mirrorless pool. The DPReview video duo believe we will see cheaper Canon camera equipment in 2021, including an RP replacement, and I agree with them.
One area that is a bit of a game map is what Canon plans to do with its M-mount. As Jordan says, the ‘M50 Mark II was a kind of embarrassment.’ It is true. The camera does not deserve the “Mark II” name because Canon actually gave it a firmware upgrade and offered it for sale. I’m absolutely not confident in these hot tasks, but I do think Canon will like it. I do not get the idea that the company wants to make smaller sensor products in the RF line, and the M line is a perfect place to provide such support, while the RF line still pays attention to those who have a full frame want.
Canon is hard to predict because even though it’s still early in the mirrorless game, it looks like the company is so well positioned to do what it wants. The company’s mirrorless strategy seems to be paying off, and now there’s so much flexibility where Canon can take its brand that it’s hard to predict. Canon fans actually just have a lot of reasons to stay optimistic.
Pentax / Ricoh
I think if you paid attention, it’s easy to guess what Pentax / Ricoh is going to do in 2021: not much. We get the Pentax K3 Mark III, maybe a new GR under the Ricoh brand, and maybe one Pentax lens, but the company has repeatedly underestimated it for years. Leadership has said time and time again that it will never produce a mirrorless Pentax product and to see how long it takes the company to make lenses for its DSLRs, I believe them. There’s no way Pentax can compete at the current pace, even if it’s produced an amazing mirrorless ILC: you’ll have to wait 5 or 6 years before a flexible first-party glass library is available to use. . n camera.
I’m a little excited to see how the K3 Mark III integrates on-sensor stabilization, as we’ve not seen that technology in a DSLR before (at least I could be wrong). Apart from that, there is little to say about Pentax / Ricoh.
Fujifilm
I have to admit that I can not predict Fujifilm. I like the cameras, but I’ve never been a ‘Fuji guy’. Jordan has a small list of expectations for the company in 2021, which is mainly focused on the company’s video capability. Fujifilm has steadily increased its video game over the past two years, stepping into Panasonic’s micro-four-thirds space. I think what Jordan is saying here is a clever guess: expect them to give video shooters more.
I also agree that it would make sense to let Fujifilm play a bit more with medium format cameras. At the moment, the cameras are large, bulky and still relatively expensive. Fujifilm can try to compress the excellent 100-megapixel sensor into a smaller, cheaper and even more accessible body.
Leica
Chris apparently does not think we will see many cameras from Leica this year, but there are rumors that do not agree, such as an indication of a more affordable rangefinder as well as a new CL camera in early 2021.
In the last two years, Leica has made quite a few cameras and I think Chris’s opinion that we would rather see more optics from the company this year is a pretty safe bet. The L-Mount can use interesting, faster glass. I also think that Leica should utilize its ability to make interesting lenses as opposed to the current trend of strong, soulless glass. I hope we see them play a bit in that space.
We’ll get more on this in the Panasonic section, but Leica’s autofocus should work: it’s not a good sign that the SL2 did not win me over before using manual focus lenses. Unlike Panasonic with DFD technology, Leica has only a capable contrast-based system without the intelligence behind it. Leica should either just license what Panasonic has, or it should add phase detection. This middle ground in which it sits works for no one more than a hobby.
Nikon
Nikon has been featured in the news repeatedly this year, mostly due to its financial situation. Things do not look good, but I do not believe we are near the end of Nikon. No, instead I think the company will do what it keeps threatening: make more mirrorless lenses and manufacture another DSLR.
Jordan’s prediction of a Z-mount sports body to compete with the Sony a9 is a fair guess, and I agree that we’ll see a new Nikon sports body in 2021, but it could be either a DSLR or be a mirrorless. I’m not sure if Nikon has the technology to make a high-performance sports performance still very good, but we know it can do that with DSLRs.
Sigma
Sigma is primarily known as a lens manufacturer, but also technically a camera manufacturer. While Jordan says he hopes to see a Foveon mirrorless camera, I doubt it. I have been saying for years that I expect them to use the technology again and always predict that ‘this year will be the year’.
I think I’m done with the hope there.
I bet we do see a compact, street / travel-oriented mirrorless camera from Sigma, but I doubt it uses the Foveon sensor. It’s been so long since it was seen in a camera, that at this point I have to believe that Sigma is having trouble making it a compelling option when it comes to the market.
What’s more likely is an “I-Series” camera that matches Sigma’s latest compact primes.
Olympus
Chris and Jordan are the same as me: it’s hard not to believe it’s just the beginning of the end for Olympus. Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) acquired the brand last year and it is hard not to believe that it will slowly cause the brand to die off.
However, financially speaking I do not know how it makes sense for JIP. The purchase of Olympus was not cheap and to make the brand slowly disappear does not seem to me a significant financial strategy. I have a little more confidence that Olympus will stay for a while than Chris does, but it’s really hard to see. We rarely see new owners of camera brands in this industry, so it’s hard to look at situations from the past and as a barometer of what we see now. Unfortunately we will have to wait and see.
Panasonic
Panasonic is my favorite camera brand, and I can not say. I switched to the Panasonic with the GH4 and now like to use the GH5, S1, S5 and S1H. There are many who do not use Panasonic products, who say that the company’s DFD technology is bad and that the insistence on autofocus on contrast never goes anywhere, but I do not agree. I think Panasonic will stay with DFD and improve it. If Panasonic were to use phase detection at this point, it would already be.
I’m with Jordan too: I’m 100% confident that we’ll see the GH6 this year as a video-focused micro-four-third camera that will have at least the same specifications as we see in the a7S III. I do not think video shooters want more resolution, and as such it will be a camera that will focus on absolutely shooting 4K performance.
Sony
I think if a7 IV were a normal year, it would already be on the market. Sony has taken a very conservative approach until 2020, because let’s be honest, the company does not have to take any more risks: it owns the mirrorless space. However, it will not last forever, but with Canon’s breathing, and as such we are definitely going to see Sony release some impressive new products in 2021, with an a7 IV.
I think Sony will also make a stronger case for its APS-C line, and hopefully leave the a6000 style behind. Fujifilm can use strong competition, and I think Sony recognizes that.
Some of the older G-Master lenses also need a refresh – I look at your 24-70mm f / 2.8. I’m pretty confident that we’ll be seeing new versions of these lenses this year with updated optics and the brand new autofocus motors.
Do you agree with Chis and Jordan? What did I miss or get wrong? What are your forecasts for 2021? Let us know in the comments.