Russell Wilson’s trade speculation suffered a major blow this week. Reports emerged Tuesday that the Seattle Seahawks have notified the Chicago Bears that they will not be trading their star quarter at this point. The next day, Willie Keeler set out the secret meeting between John Schneider and Ryan Pace, Bears GM, in Fargo. It’s the weekend now, and we all know how these talks ended: Russell Wilson is still in Seattle and Andy Dalton is investigating real estate in Illinois. But how valuable was the trade package that Chicago offered?
The Bears were so invested in Wilson’s trading that the offer allegedly included three first-round picks, a third round of 2021, and two “entrees” (air deals around beginners, as one of the apparent stakeholders has since been released) . At first glance, three choices from the first round sound like a big offer. But any team with Russell Wilson on quarterback will immediately become a playoff game, and teams playing in January usually do not finish in April with a high first round. How valuable is the late first round?
Due to the expanded format, the Bears were able to come to a wildcard spot last season with an 8-8 record. As a result, their first round pick in 2021 will be 20th overall. Since the Houston Texans joined the NFL in 2002, teams that made the playoffs would get 21-32 picks. However, with the extensive play-off matches, teams that leave in the game card round can already choose in 19th place. In April, the Washington football team received the distinction of being the first team to do so – one place ahead of the Bears.
If a Mitch Trubisky / Nick Foles team could make it to the playoffs, a Russell team under Bears could be the permanent Super Bowl favorite. The two future first-round picks will likely continue to land somewhere between 19 and 32 in the following years. I want to look at some ways to appreciate this choice. First, I want to look at players selected in previous years in this series. Because the Bears offered three choices, I will look at the three most recent concepts. Second, I’ll look at the draft value of the draft using a value chart to see what Seattle can get if they use Chicago’s package as leverage on draft day.
View value based on previous player selections
Since the 2018 draft, teams that have selected between 19 and 32 have selected a total of 42 players, and not six got at least one Pro Bowl nod or All-Pro pick (1st or 2nd team). Below is the outline.
5 players selected between 19-32 since 2018 have made at least one Pro Bowl
- Dallas 1.19 (2018) – Leighton Vander Esch, LB
- Detroit 1.20 (2018) – Frank Ragnow, C.
- Baltimore 1.32 (2018) – Lamar Jackson, QB
- Oakland / LV 1.24 (2019) – Josh Jacobs, RB
- Minnesota 1.22 (2020) – Justin Jefferson, WR
5 players are selected as the first or second team All Pros
- Frank Ragnow (2020)
- Lamar Jackson (2019)
- Leighton Vander Esch (2nd team, 2018)
- Calvin Ridley (2nd team, 2020) – selected at 1.26 by Atlanta in 2018
- Justin Jefferson (2nd team, 2020)
In addition to these names, other players have been selected who are likely to be pro bowlers or at least long-term starters in the NFL – players like Montez Sweat, Noah Fant, Kenneth Murray and Jordyn Brooks – but none of these players. would replace a franchise fullback like Russell Wilson. Although I personally love watching Lamar Jackson play, the 2019 All-Pro and MVP is closer to a payday and he has the same playoff record as Wilson during the past three seasons (1-3). The possibility that a quarter will fall at 19 or later that could replace or even approach Russ is highly unlikely in most concepts, and this seems particularly unlikely in 2021, where in the first fifteen appearances there were five QBs in many sketch shots.
View the draft value using the Rich Hill graph
If Seattle were to try to pack Chicago’s picks together in an attempt to trade the concept, how much leverage would they have? Rich Hill or Pat’s pulpit created an updated draft select value chart in 2017 based on actual trades that have taken place since the CBA in 2011. According to Davis Hsu, this graph is much closer to the methods the Seahawks use than the traditional Jimmy Johnson map.
According to the most recent version of this chart at Draftek, Chicago’s first round in 2021 is valued at 269. The reason for evaluating future selections varies, among other things, depending on the team and the expected strength of the draft class (Chicago’s acquisition of Russell Wilson would probably factor in this), but a common method is to make a future selection as one. round later for each year in the future. The first rounds of Bears 2022 and 2023 will be the same as their second and third rounds of 2021.
Using this formula, the Bears trade package has a cumulative value of 482. If we look at the chart above, it would theoretically be enough to move up to Bengal, the fifth overall pick in 2021, and within reach of the Hawks ‘s choice in fourth place. But it all depends on whether Cincinnati or Atlanta will have any interest in buying their choice. And even if Seattle can make a deal to move up, PFF’s latest mockery has three QBs coming off the board in the first three picks. I find it hard to imagine that Carroll and Schneider would feel comfortable giving up their franchise quarter just to get the chance to set up Trey Lance.
At this point, it’s pretty clear why Pete Carroll made his contribution to ensure that this trade does not decline. Quite simply, as Mookie recently remarked, if Seattle had traded Russell Wilson, they would have willingly begun a full-scale rebuild. Uploading the first few rounds sounds intriguing; young, talented players with fifth-year options can be of paramount importance in drawing up a competitive roster. But using this method to replace a franchise quarter is not a sustainable success model. Excuse me now as I sit back and remind myself that Chicago used Russell Wilson, and all they ended up with was a shipment of Andy Dalton jerseys for their pro shop.