Virtually all Congress Democrats and even some Republicans have condemned President Trump’s incitement to revolt at the Capitol. Virtually all Congress Democrats and even some Republicans want Trump out of office as soon as possible. It looks like the US House of Representatives this week is likely to accuse Trump for a second time, with at least five Republicans likely to vote in favor. Allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as first reported by the New York Times and subsequently confirmed by ABC News, say McConnell believes Trump has committed unpredictable transgressions and supports the Democrats going forward moves with accusation.
Where does all that we leave leave? It’s complicated. It seems quite likely that Trump will remain in office until January 20, while the House will mostly accuse Trump of a party vote, but that the Senate will not take an accusation before January 20, when President-elect Joe Biden amp accepted. We will still have to wait to see how it all unfolds to know for sure. Either way, we know that one big step in this process took place Tuesday night: the House passed a resolution calling on Vice President Mike Pence and the remaining members of Trump’s cabinet to amend the 25th Amendment. to call and remove Trump from the presidency.
This vote was historic – the House voted to accuse three presidents (including Trump) but has never before formally proposed that the president be removed by his cabinet. At the same time, the mood has no real impact. Pence said in a letter to Pelosi released before the vote that he and the Cabinet will not try to force Trump out of office via the 25th Amendment. So Tuesday’s vote was only a prelude to a separate vote on Trump’s accusation, which could take place as soon as Wednesday. House Democrats have promised to accuse Trump for the second time if Cabinet does not remove him.
The vote on Tuesday night on the 25th Amendment, although symbolic, does help us to understand some of the dynamics within the two parties – especially if you agree with last week’s vote on whether the outcome of the election in November should confirm, consider. Here are four things we learned …
Most republics of the House still strongly support Trump.
Only 83 of the 204 Republicans in the House who participated in the vote were against the attempt to effectively disqualify the presidential votes in Arizona. Only 64 of the House of Representatives’ 202 votes cast were opposed to the attempt to disqualify Pennsylvania election results. In other words, a clear majority of Republicans in the House voted to ban the presidential results from Arizona and Pennsylvania, joining Trump’s effort to disqualify the votes of swing states where he now lost. And it was votes that were held after Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol.
On Tuesday night, the number of Republicans in the House who were willing to ask for Trump to be ousted was even lower – only one, Illinois Representative Adam Kinzinger, supported the resolution to remove Trump. There may be Republicans voting for accusation, but not the 25th resolution (more on this). But it seems likely that the vast majority of Republicans will take action against any attempt to remove Trump from office, regardless of the method.
The upcoming accusation vote will be the fourth vote in the span of a week, effectively being a proxy for how loyal a House Republican is to Trump and strong pro-Trump voters. And it turns out that most Republicans of the House will have taken Trump’s side four times already, despite an attack on the Capitol inspired in part by Trump’s words, which resulted in five people being killed and easily led. to members of Congress and even Pence. killed.
It is noteworthy that the strong support for Trump among Republicans in the House cannot be shared in the Senate. Only eight of the 51 Republicans in the Senate support efforts to challenge the results in Arizona, Pennsylvania or both states. Unlike McConnell, allies of Representative Kevin McCarthy, the top Republican in the House, did not suggest that McCarthy be open to Trump’s accusation. That said, it is not clear that many Senate Republicans support the 25th Amendment or even try to accuse and remove Trump. (In a moment more on that).
There was a big difference between confirming Biden’s victory and asking for Trump to be removed.
The 63 House Republican members who confirmed the election results in both Arizona and Pennsylvania were from across the ideological and geographic spectrum – some were fairly moderate members from more liberal areas, such as Representative John Katko of New York, but some were also conservatives from more right-wing areas, especially the No. 3 Republican in the party’s leadership, Liz Cheney of Wyoming.
But to remove for Trump seems, even for these Republicans, a bridge too far. Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan, Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington, Katko and Cheney indicated that they would support accusation, although they did not also do the 25th Amendment process like Kinzinger. But overall, there are few indications that most of these 63 members will vote for accusation.
Accusations in the House do not really need Republican votes, as Democrats are in the majority and will most likely sit behind accusations. But this House sentiment can also be an indication of things in the Senate …
It is not clear exactly what the Republicans of the Senate are going to do.
McConnell, while pushing the idea of being frustrated with Trump, also suggested that the Senate could not really begin an indictment until Jan. 19, according to a memo he sent to Republican senators sent by Washington Mail was obtained. If the Senate wanted to oust Trump right away, I think they would figure out a way to do that. What is more likely is that McConnell wants to send the message publicly that he is personally angry with Trump, but does not necessarily require Republican senators to go on the record with a vote. Remember that McConnell just won a six-year term in 2020 and that he is 78 years old. He is probably not so worried about the fact that he will be elected as an inadequate pro-Trump in 2026 and will lose a Republican primary if he decides at the age of 84 to run for a term again. But younger Republican senators, those with presidential ambitions and / or those running for re-election next year may want to avoid a vote to defend Trump or remove him from office.
It is therefore not clear that McConnell would move to a vote before January 20th. There is still no remorse about GOP senators requesting the Senate to convene immediately after the House prosecutes Trump, nor is it clear that there are close to 18 GOP senators would not need to remove him from his to remove amp. So, unless something dramatically changes in the attitude of GOP senators, Trump is likely to remain in office on January 20th.
By the end of this month, with a 50-50 Senate and Vice President Kamala Harris as the deciding vote, Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer will be the majority leader. There are few precedents for this, but some legal experts believe that the Senate could convict Trump by a two-thirds vote on the charge of indictment, even if he is not in office. Then, by a simple majority, the Senate can vote to disqualify Trump from holding office again. But I must emphasize: we have no idea if any of this will happen. Wouldn’t Trump, especially Biden, prefer Trump to focus on the Democrats ’policy agenda, as opposed to Trump trying to punish? Would Republicans in the Senate work together to condemn Trump and declare him incompetent again? Would a disqualification from Trump to hold other offices meet legal challenges?
Democrats reprimand Trump like no other president has been reprimanded.
All 222 Democrats in Congress who participated in Tuesday’s vote support the call for the 25th Amendment. Accusation is also likely to be a unanimous vote among Democrats. This is not surprising – in 2019, all but 232 House Democrats supported Trump’s accusation of his plan to force the Ukrainian government to investigate the Bidens. There has been some turnover in terms of members, but the vast majority of House Democrats have already tried to force Trump out of office and probably feel comfortable re-casting such votes, especially in light of the horrific incident last week at the Capitol.
By combining today’s 25th Amendment resolution with the 2019 indictment, Democrats have ensured that Trump will be punished by the House of Representatives in a way no previous president has: Both are charged and requested by the president’s cabinet to remove from office. No president has been charged in two separate cases (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton have been charged on several articles, but in the same series of House votes). House Democrats are almost certain they will make Trump the first this week.