The Buffalo Bills boast one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. That was not the case a year ago.
The bills for 2019 were offensively mediocre. They averaged less than 20 points per game. Josh Allen was still an inexperienced quarterback prone to staggering decisions. Buffalo drove an elite defense to a playoffs and won a bunch of bad rock fights along the way.
This year’s Bills are different. They scored nearly 10 more points per game (29.1). Allen developed into a Pro Bowler and NFL MVP candidate. Their pass attack, always one of the weakest in the league, is now fifth in yards per game and sixth in yards per attempt.
“Offensive, they are at the top of the league in almost every category, starting with the leaderboard,” Bill Belichick said last week as his New England Patriots prepared him to present the Bills on Monday Night Football. ‘
Here’s a look at how much Buffalo’s offense has improved since last season:
2019
Points per game: 19.6 (23rd)
Yards per game: 330.2 (24th)
Yards per game: 5.19 (22nd)
Passes per game: 201.8 (26th)
Site per pass attempt: 6.29 (20th)
First time per game: 19.6 (T-20th)
Offensive DVOs’ Offensive DVOA: 21st
Violation DVOA: 20th
2020
Points per game: 29.1 (sixth)
Yards per game: 386.7 (fifth)
Sites per play: 6.02 (sixth)
Passes per game: 278.5 (third)
Recruits per pass attempt: 7.53 (sixth)
First time per game: 24.2 (second)
Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA: Sixth
Violation DVOA: fourth
How did they do it? More consistent and responsible play from the upside, Allen certainly helped. But he has benefited immensely from probably the NFL’s most important off-season addition: wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Diggs, who was acquired by the Minnesota Vikings for a first-round pick and two late-rounders, was no different in his first season in the AFC East. The 27-year-old entered Week 16 and was first in the NFL in reception (111) and third in reception (1,314). He is a true no. 1 player – a top 10 player in his position – and his presence completely changed the violation of the bills.
Aside from his own production, Diggs’ arrival also starred Cole Beasley, John Brown and newcomer Gabriel Davis in more natural roles than no. 2/3/4 options bumped, giving the Bills a deeper and more balanced wide stall. Brown, Buffalo’s leading target in 2019, has been delayed this season due to injuries, but Beasley is enjoying an excellent year in the lockery, setting the career high in catches (79) and yards (950) with two more games left.
“(Diggs) it helped a lot,” Belichick said. “He’s the leading receiver in the league. He targeted a lot. He made some amazing plays. Sometimes he went up and took the ball away from defenders – plays that you think are going to be incomplete, and he ends up with the ball. … He added a lot to the team. ”
Belichick’s Patriots allegedly started for Diggs last season and spoke to the Vikings about the then disgruntled receiver before being handed over to Buffalo. New England eventually chose not to make any major moves, signing two cheap free agents in Damiere Byrd and Marqise Lee (who picked up later in the season) and ignoring a happy draft outlook on the position.
The hope was apparently that N’Keal Harry would take a major leap in the second year, Mohamed Sanu would look more like the player in Cincinnati and Atlanta, and Julian Edelman would stay healthy and productive. None of that happened.
Harry averages 2.5 catches and less than 25 yards per game. Sanu was cut in the training camp. Edelman limped the first six games, ended up on an injured reserve and has not played since. Byrd and especially Jakobi Meyers had good seasons, but also not the player the team wants at the helm of his receiving corps.
New England ranks 20th or worse in each of the eight offensive categories listed above, including sixth to last in points per game.
The list of problems with this 6-8 Patriots group is a long one – erratic quarterback play, zero production from the close position, big problems in the defensive front seven, and so on – but finding a legitimate number 1 receiver should be at the top of their to-do list out of season.
Luckily for New England, the harvest of free agents this year includes several players who will fit that profile (or at least be an upgrade of their current options). Allen Robinson, starring Chicago Bears, is the lead role, followed by the likes of Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Will Fuller. Also on the list are names like Corey Davis, TY Hilton, Marvin Jones, Curtis Samuel, Keelan Cole and Nelson Agholor.
The Patriots rarely make big money for big spreads – Robinson is likely to fall outside their preferred price range – but they are expected to enter the spring with about $ 60 million in salary caps, fourth in the league. They have the resources to improve this position group – and it is necessary.
The offensive explosion of the Bills is proof of how valuable a real no. 1 catch can be. If the Patriots want to bounce back from their worst offensive campaign in two decades, they can not continue without one.
Thumbnail via Mark Konezny / USA TODAY Sports images