If Matthew Stafford can command such a great trade subject, what is the youngest, better Deshaun Watson in the world?
This is the question that everyone in the NFL is thinking about late Saturday night. The problem is using the Rams-Lions trade, as a yardstick is not quite an apple-to-apple comparison for some reason.
If the Texans deviate from the “zero interest” position this week and decide to fulfill Watson’s trade request, they will want two choices of the first round, two second rounds and two young defensive entrees “at least,” according to the Houston Chronicle.
The Rams traded two picks in the first round, a third round pick and quarterback Jared Goff to the Lions for Stafford.
But one complication is that not all choices in the first round are equal.
The Rams, who have not picked a first-round pick since 2016 due to a series of deals, have won at least nine games in each of the past four seasons and therefore usually deserve a pick after the top 20. The draft position could fall lower in the future as Stafford elevates the Rams to a Super Bowl candidate.
The Jets and Dolphins – two of Watson’s top suitors – hold the no. 2 and no. 3 in the NFL Draft in 2021.
Using the old Jimmy Johnson scorecard for draft pick, the Jets pick is worth 2,600 points and the Dolphins pick (which originally belonged to the Texans) is worth 2,200, while the Rams are at 25 no. now belongs to the Jaguars) is only worth 720 points. In other words, a top three pick is worth three firsts in the Rams series.
The other complication is Goff’s contract. While Watson is considered a fair market value under a $ 156 million four-year deal until 2024, Goff’s recent performance is not equal to his big deal.
The Rams would be caught adding Stafford’s $ 20 million salary cap hit and the $ 134 million four-year extension to Goff. So, they absorbed a $ 22.2 million kill to dump Goff’s salary.
The Lions allegedly wanted a bigger comeback to take on Goff’s contract – hence the additional draft picks when other teams were willing to part with a higher pick for Stafford in the first round.
Since the Rams are the hook for the proportional bonus money, the Lions only undertake one or two years commitment with Goff as their starter. He could be released after 2022 without a dead cap for the Lions.
If the reported price for Watson is correct, the Jets could share in the draft compensation without much impact. They have four choices from the first round, two choices in the second round and three choices in the third round over the next two drafts.
The most important part of the Jets is to add two young defensive starters. The Texans would almost certainly claim emerging star defensive lineman Quinnen Williams as one of the two.
There may be a case arising from the demand for third-year pro Williams, such as asking for a third-round pick in the first round to go with the rest of the package.