Which COVID-19 vaccine is the best? The correct answer is that it depends on which factor is most important to you.
Comirnaty (BNT162b2), the vaccine developed by BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) and his great partner Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), had the highest overall efficiency in testing at the late stage. But Modernsay (NASDAQ: MRNA) efficiency for mRNA-1273 was almost as high. The biotechnology has also developed a formulation that does not meet the strict ultra-cold storage requirements that Comirnaty does.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has just reported an OK, but not too impressive efficacy result for the vaccine. However, it only requires a single dose – a big plus. Then there is Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX). The biotechnology announced excellent efficacy and safety results for its COVID-19 vaccine last week. The downside is that the results of a British study are coming. It will be a few more months before the results of Novavax from a study in the US and Mexico become available.
The same ‘it depends’ answer also applies to the question of which one is the best COVID vaccine. Here’s how I think Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax stand on different types of investors.
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For income investors
Let’s start with a relatively easy comparison. Income investors want dividends. We can immediately remove BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax from litigation because they do not currently have dividend programs. That leaves only Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer.
If your primary focus is on returns, Pfizer is the best choice. Its dividend currently yields more than 4.3% compared to 2.4% for J&J. Although Pfizer’s dividend going forward will be slightly lower now that it has divested its Upjohn unit, its return should still be higher than Johnson & Johnson.
On the other hand, if you place a higher priority on dividend records, J&J is the obvious choice. The health giant is a Dividend King with an impressive 58 consecutive dividend increases.
For value investors
It is also not a difficult decision to choose the best COVID vaccine stock for value investors. Value investors usually focus on metrics based on earnings or sales. This excludes BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax from the list.
Based on any of the most commonly used valuation values, it appears that Pfizer is the winner over Johnson & Johnson. Pfizer shares, for example, are trading at less than 11.5 times expected earnings. J&J shares are trading at almost 19 times expected earnings.
For growth investors
Now for the hardest choice: choose the best of these stocks for growth investors. The tables are turned this time. Neither Pfizer nor Johnson & Johnson has the potential for sales and earnings as large as the smaller biotechnology stocks.
We can also exclude BioNTech. It should split any sales for Comirnaty with Pfizer. The company also has no other pipeline candidates in the late stage of testing that could be on the market in the near future.
So what growth share wins in a match between Moderna and Novavax? I’m going with Novavax. Most importantly, Novavax’s market capitalization is much smaller than that of Moderna. This will give Novavax more room to work if it gets its COVID-19 vaccine emergency permits (which I trust it will be).
This is another reason why Novavax is the better choice for growth investors. The biotechnology still has several key catalysts underway for the NVX-CoV2373 coronavirus vaccine, including potential UK approval, late US / Mexico study results and potential US emergency authorization.
Novavax also has another promising candidate that has a high chance of winning regulatory approvals – flu vaccine NanoFlu. If approved, NanoFlu could become a lure in itself. As an added bonus, Novavax is exploring the potential of developing a COVID / flu vaccine combination with NVX-CoV2373 and NanoFlu.
Several winners
My opinion is that Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson are a good choice for more conservative investors, especially retirees and others who want an income from dividends. I think Novavax is the best choice for more aggressive investors who want strong growth.
The good news, though, is that all of these stocks can be winners in the long run. Moderna offers a teasing platform based on its messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. BioNTech also has promising mRNA vaccines and therapies being developed, plus candidates using other approaches. I suspect that investors who bought one of these shares will not regret it in ten years.