What is my chance of getting COVID-19 after I have been vaccinated?

A new report shows that 5,800 people who were fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused COVID-19, developed infections anyway.

5800 may sound like a lot to people – and experts fear that the number reported without context could lead to greater hesitation about vaccines. However, it is important to note that these numbers, with the permission of the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), make up a very small fraction of the total number of vaccinated Americans.

As of two days ago, 125.8 million (38.3%) of the U.S. population received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and 78.5 million (23.9%) were fully vaccinated. Vaccinations for virtually any disease will be ineffective in at least a handful of cases, because even a vaccine that is almost completely effective will eventually be given to individuals for whom they do not work.

Nevertheless, one of the goals of mass vaccination is to give life back to what it was like before the pandemic. While it is reassuring that the CDC added in its email to CNN that ‘to date no unexpected patterns have been identified in case demographics or vaccine characteristics’, the possibility that a vaccine does not work is still there, and the public still needs to be informed. about what it means.

Salon asked public health and medical experts for answers on how we should respond to the news of ‘breakthrough infections’ – the technical term for a situation in which someone falls ill with a disease they have been vaccinated to prevent.

How do the COVID-19 vaccines work?

First, note that not all vaccines work the same way. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines use a new technology. These vaccines, known as mRNA vaccines, contain a piece of RNA from the SARS-CoV-2 virus that is associated on the surface of the virus with one specific protein – not the whole virus. After being injected into the body, they learn to recognize proteins associated with the dangerous pathogen. It currently requires two shots to be inoculated using these mRNA vaccines; Pfizer CEO recently said a third shot may be needed).

In contrast, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine – which has been put on “pause” by the FDA due to a rare blood clot issue – is a conventional vaccine, which means it uses a weakened or dead form of the pathogen to boost your immune system. lead. to fight the virus. That vaccine only needs one shot.

What is the chance that someone gets a breakthrough infection?

Dr Monica Gandhi, a doctor of infectious diseases and professor of medicine at the University of California – San Francisco, told Salon in an email that the chance of getting a breakthrough case after she was fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine ‘very low’. She pointed to the extremely small percentage of Americans who had breakthrough cases (far, far, far below 1%) and also quoted data from the CDC MMWR study that analyzed the actual effectiveness of health workers as well as first-class responses. as well as the press release from Pfizer on April 1st. (She added that we do not yet have analog data for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.)

“The chance of individuals being fully vaccinated becoming infected with any variant of SARS-CoV-2 is limited,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, leader of Columbia University’s Pandemic Response Initiative, told Salon in an email. At the same time, he added that no vaccine is ‘100% effective’, which should guide how we experience the vaccination movement.

“90% protection is excellent – but it also means that if you vaccinate 1 million people, up to 100,000 can have a breakthrough infection,” Redlener explained. “That said, most of those who do become infected will have few serious illnesses and / or not survive. The difference between those who are single vs. [two] doses of Moderna or Pfizer’s vaccine are just a matter of level and sustainability of the immune response. ‘

In other words, even if you are vaccinated and then get COVID-19 later, you are unlikely to have a serious case.


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Is there anything that makes it more likely that someone will get a breakthrough after they have already been vaccinated?

There are a number of “reasonable hypotheses” about this, but it is not yet known, said Dr. Russell Medford, chair of the Center for Global Health Innovation and Global Health Crisis Coordination Center, explains.

“While the reported CDC data reinforces our confidence in the high efficacy of our current vaccines, more research is needed to determine which specific factor (s), of the individual, the vaccine and the virus, can predict a given individual for infection on the virus after vaccination, “Medford told Salon in an email, which can range from the details of the vaccines and virus strains to the person’s age and underlying health conditions.

Dr Alfred Sommer, dean of emeritus and professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University, told Salon that “the risk of infection and especially serious illness is reduced by vaccination, but not completely eliminated.” Sommer explained that potential risk “increases the greater the person’s exposure to infected people, and the amount of virus (and infectiousness of the variant) to which they are exposed.”

In other words, being close to infected people and often being exposed to the virus is more likely to lead to an infection regardless of the vaccination.

Everything, from the degree of exposure to someone and the contagion of their variant to the specific functioning of their immune system, can affect things, “Sommer warned. Vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of infection and the severity of the disease, but does not guarantee against it. ”

How often should I get tested for COVID-19 after being vaccinated?

Sommer pointed out that if you are fully vaccinated, there is no reason to be tested regularly for the presence of the virus unless you are experiencing COVID-19 symptoms. If you start to experience the symptoms, you should also take care not to infect others, despite the fact that their vaccination means that they are less likely to get the disease.

Finally, they need to make sure they get the right kind of test, Sommer said. This is because an antibody test will reveal the presence of antibodies as a result of vaccination. “A test they get should test whether the virus is present,” Sommer explained.

What activities can people safely resume after being vaccinated?

Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, told Salon in an email that people can take baby steps to resume normal life, but still need to be careful.

“People who have been fully vaccinated can be in small groups of others who have been fully vaccinated,” Benjamin explained. “Mask wearing is still recommended if you use people who are not in your regular group, or large groups, even if everyone has been vaccinated. This may change if we gain a better understanding of the risks of infection and transmission among vaccinated.”

Redlener said that life was gradually returning to normal, although he, like Benjamin, insisted cautiously.

“With the proviso that there should be no relaxation of public health protocols, such as masking and social distance, we will soon see more people traveling, attending events – think concerts, sporting events and theater,” Redlener said. “Even small gatherings of family and close friends indoors without masks are permissible if everyone is vaccinated and the amount and time of contact is limited.”

Gandhi expressed optimism.

“They can resume all activities after being vaccinated, but must maintain masks and distance themselves in public spaces to be polite to others who have not been vaccinated, and also because some places in our country still have a high number of circulation issues,” Gandhi explained. ‘As Dr. [Anthony] Fauci said yesterday: “The vaccines protect you, so go get vaccinated – that’s the message.” “She added that Fauci said that if you are fully vaccinated and in the vicinity of other vaccinated,” you should not worry about it at all. Zero. ‘

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