This is a new year and we are looking at what 2021 could mean for electric pickups, electric cars, higher volumes and more.
Last summer, I called 2021 the year of the electric car, and today, on the first day of the year, we discuss some trends that we think will make it happen.
Electric bowls
This is not so important everywhere, but in the US, pickups are crucial to accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles.
Pickups are the largest segment of passenger vehicles, and unless that changes, we need electric pickup options to accept electric vehicles.
2021 is the year that the first options for electric pickups are coming, although I have tempered my expectations compared to earlier in 2020.
At this point, I’m confident that our Rivian R1T, at least some Hummer EVs, might deliver a Lordstown Endurance pickup to some fleet customers, and that’s what it’s about.
Officially, Tesla says the Cybertruck should arrive by the end of 2021, but I doubt it, since the truck is in production.
I like to keep my hopes up and be pleasantly surprised.
As for the Ford F150 Electric, the carmaker has already delayed it until mid-2022.
Therefore, I think the actual volume of electric pickups delivered in 2021 will be relatively low, certainly compared to the total volume of pickups in the US, but the beginning of deliveries of electric pickups is still an important milestone for electric vehicles in the United States. USA.
This will slowly start to change the minds of pickup truck buyers and lay the groundwork for more models and higher volumes, which is likely to be in 2022-23.
Higher volumes of electric motors
Although the volume of electric pickups will be small in 2021, there is a larger amount of electric vehicles that will be introduced this year.
The premium segment will be largely electric this year with the Audi Q4 e-tron, Mercedes-Benz EQA and BMW iNEXT all coming on the market.
As so many excellent electric vehicles start to populate the premium segments, it becomes difficult for buyers of premium electric cars to buy a petrol vehicle.
In the higher premium segment, the launch of the Lucid Air looks a few delays good for this year. I do not expect a significant volume from them in 2021, but they have exciting things in terms of technology and performance. If successful this year, it could set them up in 2022.
As for cheaper vehicles, Nissan is finally succeeding the Leaf with the Ariya electric crossover, and it should come in decent volume.
We also have electric vehicles such as the VW ID.4 and Mustang Mach-E, which were technically launched in 2020, but will deliver much higher volumes in 2021.
But if we talk volume, we should be talking about the Tesla Model Y in 2021.
The vehicle launched in 2020 and Tesla has achieved volume production, but it will increase massively in 2021.
Let us not forget, Tesla plans to start manufacturing Model Y at three more factories (Gigafactory Berlin, Gigafactory Shanghai and Gigafactory Texas) in 2021, which will result in Model Y being produced in 2021 in four different factories on three different continents.
I have no doubt that the Tesla Model Y will reach an insane volume of production and deliveries in 2021.
Battery cost and performance
It is not surprising that I think 2021 will keep the trend of lower battery costs and performance improvements going.
We even have to see some car manufacturers reach the regularly discussed $ 100 per kWh milestone.
This will not only make EVs cheaper for the total cost of ownership, but also make the price tag clearer for more people in the industry, which should accelerate electrification plans at many carmakers left behind.
Consumers’ focus on electric vehicles
By ElectrekWe have been encouraging the idea for some time that there is going to be a big shift in the mindset of car buyers when it comes to electric vehicles.
They are going to see the future resale value of petrol-powered cars go down and take this into account with their purchase of new cars – which has resulted in a huge increase in the demand for electric vehicles.
We expect that by 2025 only a small fraction of buyers of new cars will not see the benefits of electric vehicles, and that they will be able to find an electric car that fits the right price point.
Most industry analysts only see this happening in 2030-2040, but we do not agree.
As usual, analysts will accelerate their timeline in 2021 as it becomes clearer, and hopefully automakers will adjust their plan as it is clear that the industry as a whole is not yet ready for the shift.
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