Negotiations to bring the United States back into a key nuclear deal with Iran resumed in Vienna on Thursday amid signs of progress – but also under the shadow of an attack this week on Iran’s key nuclear facility.
WHAT DO THEY TRADE ON?
In 2015, Iran signed an agreement with the US, Russia, China, Germany, France and Britain that was intended to set limits on Tehran’s nuclear program to prevent it from building a nuclear weapon – something it insists it does not do not want to do.
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In return, Iran was relieved of the sanctions imposed by the powers, including oil exports and access to the global banking system. Iran was allowed to continue its nuclear program for civilian purposes, with strict limits on how much uranium it could enrich, the purity with which it could enrich it, and other measures.
Prior to the agreement, conservative estimates were that Iran was within five to six months to produce a bomb, while some feared it would be within two to three months. With the protection of the agreement, the ‘outbreak time’ would be more than a year.
FILE – In this April 10, 2021 photo released by the official website of the Office of the Iranian Presidency, President Hassan Rouhani, on the right, listens to the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, while exhibition of Iran’s new nuclear achievements in Tehran, Iran. Negotiations aimed at bringing the United States back into the nuclear deal with Iran will resume on Thursday, April 15. The issue is how to revive a 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers, which was intended to set limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in order to make it impossible to build a nuclear weapon. (Iranian Presidential Office via AP, File)
But in 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the agreement and criticized clauses that facilitated restrictions on Iran in phases – and also the fact that the agreement would eventually expire and Iran would be allowed to do what he wanted with its core technology. He also said there should be renegotiations to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and local influence such as the support of militant groups.
The crippling US sanctions that followed took their toll on Iran’s economy, but could not bring Tehran back to the table to broaden the deal as Trump wanted. Instead, Tehran gradually exceeded the restrictions set by the agreement to pressure the remaining members for economic relief.
In February, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said of Iran’s estimated outbreak time that “we are up to three or four months away and heading in the wrong direction.”
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WHAT IS BEING DISCUSSED NOW?
US President Joe Biden has said he wants to rejoin the agreement, but that Iran must stop its transgressions.
The European Union has invested the talks in the hope of doing just that. Although a US delegation is present in Vienna, they do not meet directly with Iran. Instead, diplomats from the other countries commute back and forth between the two sides.
In the run-up to the talks when they began last week, Iran said it was prepared to return to full compliance with the agreement, but that the US should first abandon all sanctions imposed under Trump.
However, it is complicated. The Trump administration has also added sanctions against Iran outside those related to its nuclear program, including allegations of terrorism, human rights violations and for the country’s ballistic missile program.
FILE – On this Saturday, January 15, 2011 file photo, a section of Arak heavy water core facilities is seen, near the central city of Arak, 250 kilometers southwest of the capital Tehran, Iran. In a statement following a virtual meeting on Friday, April 2, 2021, the chairmen of a group of senior officials from the European Union, China, France, Germany, Russia, Britain, and Iran stated that the participants emphasized their commitment to preserve discuss the JCPOA and modal to ensure the return to its complete and effective implementation. “(AP Photo / Fars News Agency, Mehdi Marizad, File)
Yet there are signs of hope. The talks quickly passed the “who’s going first” debate and are already starting to pay attention to the details, said Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an Iraqi at the Royal United Services Institute.
“It’s a very good development that these working groups are actually talking and looking at the nitty gritty,” she told The Associated Press.
For Iran to return to the agreement, it must return to uranium enrichment to no more than 3.67% purity, stop using advanced centrifuges and, among other things, drastically reduce the amount of uranium it enriches.
Despite the challenges, Tabrizi said the task ahead is not as complicated as the task the group faced in 2015 because they already have an agreement to refer to.
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HOW LONG will the talks last?
There is no specific time frame. The diplomats involved say the issues could not be resolved overnight, but they are hoping for a solution within weeks rather than months – for several reasons.
The original agreement was reached after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is widely regarded as a moderate, first took office. Due to the deadlines, Rouhani will not be able to run again in the upcoming June elections, and he hopes that he can leave office again and that Iran can sell oil abroad again and gain access to international financial markets.
Meanwhile, the US could face much stricter negotiations if they do not reach an agreement before Rouhani leaves. Hard liners in Iran reject the nuclear deal, saying it has not provided enough economic relief and is a slippery slope for more pressure on Iran. This does not necessarily mean that they would end talks if elected, although it would complicate matters, said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Chatham House Policy Institute’s Middle East and North Africa program.
FILE – This file photo released on November 5, 2019 by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Central Iran. Negotiations to bring the United States back into a major nuclear deal with Iran will resume in Vienna on Thursday, April 15, 2021 amid signs of progress – but also under the shadow of an attack this week on Iran’s key nuclear facility. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, file)
There is another reason to move quickly: In February, Iran began restricting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections of its nuclear facilities. Instead, it said it would keep the surveillance material of the facilities for three months and hand it over to the IAEA if sanctions were granted. Otherwise, Iran said it would delete the surveys.
WHAT OBSTACLES COULD GET IN THE WAY?
Many, as recent events have shown. Over the weekend, Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility was sabotaged. It is not clear what exactly happened, but an eclipse damaged centrifuges there.
The attack is widely believed to have been carried out by Israel, which opposes the nuclear deal, although the authorities did not comment.
Iran says Israel explicitly hopes to derail talks with the sabotage. Rouhani said he still hoped the talks would yield a result – but the attack made things complicated. First, Iran responded by announcing that it would increase uranium enrichment to 60% purity – much higher than ever before – and install more advanced centrifuges at the Natanz plant.
And in the wake of the developments, both sides increased the rhetoric.
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On Wednesday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final verdict on all state affairs in the Islamic Republic, dismissed all offers seen so far in Vienna as ‘not worth looking into’. Yet he said he has confidence in his negotiators.
Blinken, meanwhile, said Washington had shown its seriousness by participating in the indirect talks in Vienna, but with Tehran’s recent announcements, “it remains to be seen whether Iran shares the seriousness of the goal.”