The latest developments
There are two important updates to our winter storm forecast from Sunday morning:
1.) Precipitation is slower than expected in southern New Jersey.
2.) The temperature is even warmer than expected in the southern half of the state, with a rainier start for most.
After analyzing the current situation and the latest model guidelines, I believe these developments will affect the storm timeline, but not the total snow totals. My last card for snow accumulation is exactly the same as the one I published Saturday afternoon, except for the addition of the green-blue contour to indicate the precipitation types more specifically.
Timeline
The precipitation will spread from south to north early Sunday morning, between approx. 05:00 and 09:00 In the southern half of the state – about south of Mercer and Monmouth – you will probably see rain or a soft mix start. In northern New Jersey, I expect for the expensive snow.
The storm of the storm is pushed back slightly. Things will start really downhill 9 of 10 am This is when localized heavy snow tires will reduce vision and cause the fastest accumulation. (Snow showers can reach an inch or two an hour.) Even coastal areas can fall to moderately-heavy snow in the early afternoon. The heaviest things should protrude around 14:00
As the storm system pulls away, we see that the light to moderate snow ends between west and east 14:00 and 17:00
Total
Same card as last time. Although the mixing potential is a good reason to lean more towards the bottom of my prediction series than above.
The lovely spot of the storm, roughly along the Turnpike corridor through southern and central NJ inland, should be seen around 4 to 6+ inches of snow. The “plus” is important – although I do not think we will have a large snowfall of 8 or 10 inches, such overachievement is possible, depending on the tire structure. (The NAM model was even very positive about the possibility on Sunday morning, so let’s not discount the possibility of a big snow event yet.)
In the north, you probably fall out of the tires of “pouring snow”. Still, 2 to 4 inches is enough to hoe. And it will be particularly striking with more than a foot of snow on the ground from last Monday’s snow bomb.
Along the south coast I keep a 0 to 2 inch snow forecast. I think this is where the biggest uncertainty lies in this prediction. Models painted a beautiful snow scene along the Jersey Shore until Sunday afternoon. So here’s a chance for more than 2 inches. On the other hand, the temperatures are pretty hot (as of this writing 43 degrees in Atlantic City and Cape May). So I think it’s reasonable to like both no and some on the table.
Impact
No matter what falls out of the sky, it’s going to get pretty unpleasant and sloppy by the middle of the day. This will go a little further than ‘conversation snow’. Travel will be very difficult during the peak of the storm, from mid-morning to early afternoon.
Even for those on the way to The Big Game, roads can be in a rough shape on Sunday night. Hopefully, crews against snow removal will come down largely under the rush hour traffic of Monday morning. I could see some schools and businesses opening (or going virtual) on Monday as plowing continues.
Meanwhile, no wind is expected to be a problem during the storm. You may encounter gusts of more than 20 km / h. This will keep the risk of power outages and near snowstorms low.
And due to the light wind, storm surges and floods on the coast will not be a problem either. With only a few inches of water elevation, not a single tide meter comes along the Jersey Shore near the flood stage.
The extended forecast
Arctic air returns to Garden State on Sunday night, accompanied by a stormy northwest wind. Overnight, low temperatures will drop in the teens, with wind chills in the single digits. Brrr!
A series of storm systems will give us extra shots of winter weather this week. Although we are honest enough, we do not yet have the precipitation on precipitation types and potential accumulations. The first impulse would take place on Tuesday and could be mainly rain. Another complicated storm in the time frame from Thursday to Friday could be more striking, with a solid snow accumulation on the table.
We will address this later. One storm at a time, please.
Coverage plan
I’m on your radio Sunday, across the Townsquare New Jersey Weather Network, until we start turning noreaster. I will update regularly on the web, app and social media throughout the day.
Our news team is also ready to address issues with power outages, traffic and transportation, closures and cancellations, etc. To communicate.
Be smart, stay safe and keep warm. And enjoy the snow!
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and real-time weather updates.