Joe Douglas can borrow the title for this Jets season from NBA superstar LeBron James. That’s the decision for Douglas.
The 44-year-old general manager will not make a special TV announcement for the first time, but he needs to find out who his quarter for 2021 and possibly beyond will be in the coming weeks. Will Douglas stay with Sam Darnold for a fourth season and hope that a new coach and a better cast will help him improve? Will he draft a No. 2 quarterback overall and trade Darnold? The decision consists of so many layers and can be seen in so many ways that it is the most fascinating call for an executive and a franchise in recent sporting history of New York.
“This is the biggest decision of his career,” said former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. ‘This is probably the biggest Jets decision in 40 years, I do not know. This is huge. ”
If you misunderstand this, the Jets will be looking for a new GM in a few years. If you get it right, Douglas will bring the Jets back from the desert in which they wander in the past decade.
The decision has several layers to investigate. Let’s set aside for our purposes the possibility of trading for Texans star Deshaun Watson, who currently seems unlikely. Let’s focus on Darnold versus colleagues, led by BYU’s Zach Wilson.
The Darnold Debate
The Jets set Darnold No. 3 in 2018 in hopes of finding their franchise quarterback. Instead, he was a disgraced player. There are moments of brilliance interspersed with more plays that make your head scratch. Injuries and illnesses cost him ten games and prevented him from playing a full season.
The debate now raging on Talk Radio and Jets Twitter about Darnold is also taking place within the organization. There are some who see the untapped potential held back by a poorly surrounding cast. Others are ready to go on.
It’s impossible to make a case for Darnold using statistics. Since 2018, there have been 42 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 500 passes. Darnold’s QB score of 78.6 is 41st out of 42. Only Josh Rosen’s 63.5 is lower. Darnold has been intercepted 39 times, the fifth most picks over the past three years.
On the other side of the debate, people point out that Darnold only turns 24 on June and has not received much help in his career. Robert Saleh would be his third head coach in four years. Mike LaFleur would be his third offensive coordinator. The franchise has been unstable since Darnold arrived. The GM who drafted him, Mike Maccagnan, was fired after Darnold’s first season.
Then there is the talent around him – or the lack thereof. Darnold played along with an ever-changing cast of players. That’s how many different starters he played in each attacking position: 15 wide receivers, nine tight ends, seven backs, seven left-backs, five right-backs, five right-handers, four center-backs and four left-handers. Of the 56 players, none made a Pro Bowl as a jet.
Darnold’s coaching is also in question. Former head coach Adam Gase’s last offense in the NFL in the last two years. Gase, who was appointed to fetch the best in Darnold, admitted he failed the quarterback. Darnold has scored a pass rate of 100 or higher in seven games in his career. Four of those came in his rookie season, three in 2019 and none last year as he apparently deteriorated.
This leads to the question of how much better Darnold can be in the LaFleur offense and whether Douglas can improve the offense this year through free agency and the concept, something that will give pro-Darnold people hope.
“I think he’s sometimes been put in situations that are hard to develop,” said Matt Bowen, who played seven seasons in the NFL and is now an ESPN analyst. ‘If you have a number of head coaches, who want a number of players, and if you have a talent deficit, it’s sometimes difficult to evaluate. You need to go back to the properties. I think Sam Darnold does have high-level qualities in the position. The question for the Jets is: Will these characteristics fit in with LaFleur’s offense? What I think is one of the best offenses in the NFL today. ”
Saleh and LaFleur bring the Kyle Shanahan offense with them from San Francisco. This is an offense considered quarterback-friendly because of the great emphasis on movement, game-action and roll-out. Darnold has always been good at moving, and the LaFleur offense can maximize that. There are many coaches and executives around the NFL who privately agree with Bowen and still see the superstar potential in Darnold and believe that in real offense he can realize his potential.
However, another factor in the Darnold decision is finances. Darnold has another year on his rookie contract at $ 4.6 million. There is also a fifth-year option for 2022, which is $ 18.9 million. The Jets are unlikely to choose the option. If they stick with Darnold, it means they have to move on to this year or commit to an extension to him. However, if they set up a quarterback, they will start again with a quarterback on his rookie contract and at least five years of team control.
Many in the league believe the Jets could get a second round for Darnold, in addition to a middle round this year or next year.
‘If you sit here and tell me we’re going to take a quarter, because we think he’s going to be as good as Sam Darnold in the next three years, if not better, and that’s putting our financial roster back in order, can not sit here and be like ‘No, that’s stupid’, especially with the financial flexibility, ‘Orlovsky said. “But I know that too: if you play a quarterback and he’s just OK and Sam Darnold goes somewhere else and plays well, woo, good luck.”
The College Option
It would have been simple if the 2020 Jets had not won two games in December. We would talk about Trevor Lawrence, the child who must not miss, who is going to be number 1 overall. Instead, the quarterback is cloudy at number 2.
There is no consensus no. 2-quarter in this draft. Zach Wilson of BYU has gained the most momentum since the season ended, but he also played a scheme for cupcakes. Justin Fields in the state of Ohio has the most impressive qualities. North Dakota’s Trey Lance is a bit of a mystery after just one game last season and 17 at college. Alabama’s Mac Jones has won many games with the Crimson Tide, but had an All-Star team around him.
The Jets’ draft board will stand alongside the four quarterbacks … and one other.
“I would put Sam Darnold on the draft board,” Bowen said. ‘I would say where do we rate him based on his college and pro tape? If you rate him higher than Wilson and Fields, you stay with him. It’s as simple as that. If you do not do this, you move him. ‘
The Jets also need to evaluate what they can still do with the No. 2 pick if they retain Darnold. They can trade it for a package of concepts for a team that has fallen in love with one of the quarterbacks. They can take the best non-quarterback in the draft to help Darnold. It could be a wide receiver like Ja’Marr Chase from LSU or DeVonta Smith from Alabama, or it could be Penei Sewell’s offensive suit to pick alongside Mekhi Becton, the first round last year.
‘I’ve never been a big fan of Darnold. He’s a converting machine. That’s what he is, ”said Dan Shonka, a longtime NFL scout who is now the general manager of OurLads scouting services. ‘But that being said, I think if I were Joe Douglas, I would set up Penei Sewell in that packing place. Now, you have some attachments for the bookends as long as Becton can hold out. ”
Shonka is not as high on Wilson as others. Wilson has been shooting up media concept talk for the past two months. Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms even judged him last week as Lawrence. Shonka has reservations about the BYU full-back, who knocked on a poor schedule in 2020. He leaves him as the no. 5-back player behind Lawrence, Jones, Fields and Lance prestige. Shonka also questions Wilson’s endurance because of his slight 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame and the fact that he has already undergone shoulder surgery.
“You hear the herd mentality out there with Zach Wilson,” Shonka said. ‘I want to tell you Zach Wilson can not keep in the National Football League. He’s a narrow shoulder. He is very accurate, smart man, good anticipation and all that. But he’s not a real big guy. ‘
Orlovsky is a bigger fan of Wilson, who he says has qualities he thinks will pass on to the NFL.
“Wilson plays a FOMO style of football – fear of missing out,” Orlovsky said. “He made me say more than a quarterback on tape this year, ‘Holy fudge.’ There is a lot to keep in his game. He has fast hands. He reminds me of that [former MLB star] Omar Vizquel. He is fast fast with his hands. ”
Fields’ lane was the opposite of Wilson’s. His popularity peaked in the College Football Playoff semifinals with his performance against Clemson. If the draft had been the next day, he would have been the number 2 choice. But his game has since been picked out.
“I think Fields is incredibly talented. He is deliberate, “said Orlovsky. “You have to find out if he’s going to develop from that, because now it’s not good to be deliberate in the NFL. For a man who is incredibly athletic, he does not play super fast. Are you confident he will do it? ‘
Bowen believes the deliberate nature of Fields play is due to the offense in the state of Ohio that contains deep, longer-developing routes. He argues Fields often waited for the receiver, rather than processing slowly.
Bowen said Fields has skills that cannot be learned.
“The traits are important,” Bowen said. “They have to matter, because you can not create it.”
Lance and Jones also both have fans, but they seem less likely to be candidates for the Jets at No. 2.
The final decision
Douglas now has to call in one of the toughest seasons ever for evaluating prospects. He cannot hold private workouts or even have dinner with colleagues. He will attend Pro Days, starting with Lance’s on Friday, and debating with scouts and coaches on the way to making the call that will determine the Jets’ near – and possibly long-term – future.
Douglas has been working for 21 months. The next month plus until the first round on April 29 could be the legacy of the Jets.
“I always think general managers put a stamp on their football team,” Bowen said. Joe Douglas has not done it yet. So what will it be? I think that’s it. This is what the decision is going to mean. ”