John Krafcik, the former manager of the automotive industry who took over Google’s self-driving car project in 2015, is stepping down as CEO of Waymo. Waymo, which was spun off as a separate subsidiary of Alphabet in 2016, accomplished much during Krafcik’s five-and-a-half-year tenure. Yet Krafcik failed to live up to the lofty expectations he faced when he took charge.
Until 2015, the Google self-driving car project was led by engineer Chris Urmson. At the time, Google CEO Larry Page believed the technology was almost ready for commercialization, and he hired a motorist – Krafcik – to manage the practicalities of turning the technology into a delivery product.
Krafcik spent his first few years negotiating partnerships with automakers. Talks about a possible partnership with Ford fell apart in early 2016. Krafcik then cost a smaller deal with Fiat Chrysler to buy 100 hybrid Pacifica Minivans – a deal that was later expanded to 500 minibuses.
In early 2018, Waymo announced plans to buy ‘up to 20,000 Jaguar I-PACE electric cars and’ up to ‘62,000 more Pacificas. Around the same time, Waymo said it plans to launch a driverless commercial taxi service before the end of 2018.
In short, Waymo expected his self-driving taxi service to be a big business now.
Things did not go according to plan
If that had happened, Krafcik would have been well positioned to lead Waymo as it expanded from a small pilot project in Arizona to a large enterprise with tens of thousands of vehicles in dozens of cities. With a deep understanding of the logistics in the automotive industry and strong relationships in the automotive industry, Krafcik could ensure that the process of integrating Waymo’s technology into Jaguar and Chrysler vehicles, and then manufacturing a bunch of them, runs smoothly. .
But that did not happen because commercializing self-governing technology turned out to be more difficult than Waymo’s leaders – and many outside analysts, including myself – expected in 2018. Waymo did launch a commercial service in December 2018, but it comes with a big star: at launch, all vehicles still had a safety driver behind the wheel, but all but to ensure the service was useless would be.
It will take almost two years – until October 2020 – before Waymo stops using safety drivers for most commercial rides. There are now signs that Waymo’s service is finally expanding beyond its initial market. Over the past few months, the company has intensified the test in San Francisco, speculating that the Bay Area could be the second market after Phoenix.
But the pace of growth looks icy compared to the expectations the company set a few years ago. A Waymo spokesman told Ars that the company’s fleet “has more than 600 vehicles in all our locations”. Six hundred vehicles are less than 1 percent of the 82,000 vehicles Waymo ordered three years ago.
It is not clear why. Maybe Waymo is gradually expanding for security reasons. Perhaps the vehicles require so much human supervision at the rear that the service is unprofitable, even without a safety driver. Maybe it will just take time for Waymo to expand the infrastructure needed to support thousands of vehicles in a bunch of cities.
And to be honest, it’s not clear whether Krafcik owes it. It is possible that self-government is just an inherently difficult problem, and Waymo would have struggled to bring his technology to market under any leader. It’s not like anyone else in the industry has jumped on Waymo.
But the slow pace of self-driving technology certainly makes Krafcik’s expertise in the automotive industry less relevant. Regardless of the limitations that Waymo’s growth may hold, there are certainly not enough vehicles.
Krafcik is succeeded by a few former Waymo executives who will serve as co-CEOs. Dmitri Dolgov is an engineer who has been part of the Google Motor Driving Project since 2009 and was previously Waymo’s Chief Technology Officer. Tekedra Mawakana joined Waymo in 2017 to lead its policy shop and rose to chief operating officer in 2019. Dolgov will focus on improving Waymo’s technology, while Mawakana will be responsible for the business strategy.