BANGKOK – According to the rules of the Vietnamese Communist Party, its head must resign at the age of 65 or after two terms. The dogmatic leader of the country, Nguyen Phu Trong, would not qualify for re-appointment at either point.
But that did not stop the party from seizing power, as it closed its congress once every five years on Monday, giving it a third term in an effort to project unity and deter more pragmatic challengers. .
Mr. Trong, 76, who was weak after ten years at the helm of the party, has been re-appointed general secretary in one of the few remaining communist dictatorships in the world. Mr. Known for his conservative ideological stance, Trong made the fight against corruption at a high level a priority, and he was chairman in a time of sustained economic growth and national success in containing the coronavirus.
Under his leadership, Vietnam is expected to maintain a foreign policy to balance Chinese and American interests, while the party will keep the grip at home by suppressing discord by imposing long prison sentences.
“The most important message is that the party will cling to power at all costs,” said Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. “I do not expect any major change in the direction of Vietnam’s foreign or economic policy in the next five years.”
The Communist Party of Vietnam rules the nation of nearly 100 million people and has ruled for more than 45 years since reunification. Leadership of the one-party state is divided into three positions: the party head, a president who serves as head of state and a prime minister who runs the government. Since 2018, Mr. Trong as party leader and president.
The party promotes a version of state capitalism that drove Vietnam to 2.91 percent economic growth last year, despite the severe headwinds of the coronavirus pandemic. It was down from more than 7 percent the previous two years, but from the highest growth rates in the world.
Vietnam was one of the most successful countries to contain the coronavirus, with strict border control, masking, contact detection and isolation of infected people. Prior to a recent outbreak, it took almost two months without detecting a case of local transmission, and it reported only 1,817 cases and 35 deaths.
A new study by the independent Lowy Institute in Australia puts Vietnam second in the world behind New Zealand in dealing with the first nine months of the pandemic.
Across China, Vietnam maintains strong but occasional protests with its giant communist neighbor to the north, which wants to expand its influence in the South China Sea. Analysts predict that Vietnam’s relations with China will remain strong, but that Vietnam will continue to seek improved ties with the United States to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
About mr. Granting a third term of five years to deal with these matters as general secretary means that he has to go against the party’s own rules and limit himself to two terms of office and abandon the age limit for him for the third time.
“The party wants to project an image of unity, solidarity and strength so that it can prevent internal fighting between different factions,” said Tuong Vu, an expert on modern Vietnamese history and politics at the University of Oregon.
Mr. Trong represents a conservative Marxist-Leninist faction within the party, which has come under increasing pressure from more pragmatic communist leaders of different factions.
He chose a favorite subordinate as his designated successor, but the party rejected his nominee. Mr. Trong chose to remain as general secretary rather than allow the leader of a rival faction to the highest post.
“It means to me the failure of the party leader,” he said. Vuving said. “He had to hand over the baton to another Conservative candidate, but his choice was not popular with the central committee members.”
Mr. Vuving predicted that the next leader of Vietnam would be less doctrinal than Mr. Trong, as the leaders of more pragmatic factions in senior positions would still fight to succeed him.
‘He’s the last Conservative to become general secretary. It will relax after he leaves, ‘said Mr. Vuving said and Mr. Trong ‘called a transition leader. ‘
The weekly party congress in Hanoi, a much-anticipated ritual, ended on Monday, a day early, as many members left to deal with a new outbreak of the coronavirus in the northeastern part of the country.
The outcome of new cases, which may include patients with the more contagious variants in Britain and South Africa, is the worst yet for Vietnam. In the last four days, it has reported 266 new infections.
But Vietnam has reaped the economic benefits of its overall success with the pandemic. This benefits from a shift in manufacturing from China to other countries, as large international companies want to diversify their operations and avoid US tariffs. Foxconn, for example, is building a $ 270 million plant to assemble Apple phones and laptops in Vietnam.
“Although they are a communist party and very conservative in Marxism-Leninism, they are a zealous globalizer in economic policy,” he said. Vuving said.
The government maintains this in part by imposing draconian prison sentences on journalists and critics who speak out against it. In the months leading up to the party congress, it has taken a tough stance.
In January, three journalists – including Pham Chi Dung, the founder of the Independent Journalists Association of Vietnam – were sentenced to 11 to 15 years in prison. Another prominent journalist, Pham Doan Trong, was arrested in October on charges of making and distributing propaganda. She was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Phil Robertson, the deputy director of Asia for Human Rights Watch, said he foresaw no end to the repression of freedom of speech with Mr. Trong to power.
“The re-election of the hard-line Nguyen Phu Trong means that the ruling Communist Party is doubling its repression of proponents of greater democracy and human rights in Vietnam,” he said. “This Congress demonstrates how little political reform is possible in today’s Vietnam, which is still one of the most authoritarian governments in Southeast Asia.”
In addition to the fact that he served as party leader, Mr. Trong took over the presidency in 2018 with the death of sitting, Tran Dai Quang. Mr. Trong is expected to relinquish the presidency later this year when the National Assembly with rubber stamp ratifies the new top leaders of the government.
Under the scenario, the current prime minister, Nguyen Xuan Phuc (66), who lost his bid to become party general secretary, will become president, a post that has higher prestige but less power than the prime minister.
Mr. Phuc, who is more pragmatic than Mr. Trong becomes, set a largely successful record, but could not garner enough support in part because he hails from South Vietnam. Northerners dominated the highest leadership positions.
Mr. Trong, who apparently is running with a bit of trouble and apparently had a stroke, nevertheless delivered a 75-minute speech on the opening day of the congress in which he praised the country’s economic development and control of the coronavirus.
There is no formal process to take office if he leaves office before the end of his five-year term, but the Central Committee is expected to elect a new general secretary from among the senior leaders.
“It could create a crisis because of all the uncertainties surrounding the situation,” he said. Vu said.