Variants are rising in some countries, which urgently add to the vaccination of vaccines

Photographer: Johnny Milano / Bloomberg

U.S. officials and public health experts are once again sounding the alarm about the revival of Covid-19 cases in some regions, and are particularly concerned about the role variants play in states including Michigan and New Jersey.

The developments could advance a long-feared possibility: that another upsurge could take place, even if states are opened to the admission requirements for vaccines and try to get shots in the arms as quickly as possible.

In Michigan and Minnesota, infections are on the rise, and new admissions to confirmed or suspected hospitalized Covid cases are rising by about 70% and 32% from recent lows, respectively, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Meanwhile, the pace of daily admissions to Covid-19 hospitals has halted its slide in New York and New Jersey – despite the vaccination campaign – and is starting to rise.

The four states vaccinated between 19% and 21% of their population, according to the U.S. total, according to Bloomberg’s vaccination survey.

Another major outbreak could erase the benefits of even widespread vaccination in the U.S., said Nicholas Reich, associate professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. He is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to better predict the path of the virus.

High risk

These concerns underscore the great importance of the vaccination campaign, and this is because many states have lifted restrictions following a prolonged, deadly boom last fall and winter. In addition to the emergence of variants that spread faster, a combination of relaxation rules and pandemic fatigue are likely contributing factors, while events such as the spring break could have consequences in the coming weeks.

‘We’re at the last minute, the last lap of this race of the race, and in some places the variant seems to be moving just a little bit forward. But it is so close, ”said Reich. “Four more weeks and I’m not sure they will be able to continue.”

The CDC has five variants referred to as “variants of concern”: the B.1.1.7 strain from the United Kingdom; P.1, from Brazil; B.1.351 from South Africa, as well as B.1.427 and B.1.429, both from California. Most are more transmissible and can interfere with how well drugs known as monoclonal antibodies neutralize the virus. B.1.1.7 probably also increases the severity of the disease, according to the CDC.

Last week, the U.S. added an average of about 55,000 new daily cases, about a fifth of the levels from the first week of January, although the number of confirmed infections has increased from the previous week. CDC director Rochelle Walensky pointed to the slight increase during a Monday briefing, saying the northeast and upper Midwest were starting to see more increases.

Meanwhile, hospital admissions are at the national level, which is worrying because hospitalizations have been steadily declining in January and February, she said. Deaths due to Covid are still declining, but the rate of decline has slowed, according to Walensky, over the past week.

The latest figures should “serve as a warning sign for the American people,” Walensky said. ‘The continuous relaxation of preventive measures while the cases are still high, and the varieties concerning the spread rapidly spread over the whole United States, is a serious threat to the progress we have made as a nation. ‘

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The revival in Michigan began in ski areas before spreading, said David Rubin, a physician and director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, which models the distribution of Covid-19.

“It’s not subtle. It looks more like Europe, “said Rubin. “If it can occur in Michigan, I see no reason why it could not occur in Illinois, which is only a few weeks behind, and the metropolitan area in New York.”

In New York City, senior health adviser Jay Varma said at an information session on Monday that more contagious variants contribute to a plateau in cases and that officials are “very concerned” about it.

Variant came to the fore

Data indicate that B.1.1.7 is at least one of the culprits. In Michigan, the faster-spreading variant that emerged in early February accounts for about 55% of all cases, according to data from test company Helix. No one is verifying enough variants to fully understand its occurrence, but Helix tested for S-target failure in Covid-19-positive samples, which he said is an important feature of the variant that first times have been identified in the United Kingdom.

B.1.1.7 in Michigan

Percentage of samples showing the most important feature of B.1.1.7 variant

Source: Helix Covid-19 Surveillance Dashboard

The proliferation of more contagious variants like B.1.1.7 led to Michigan’s recent increase in Covid cases, Governor Gretchen Whitmer said at a Friday briefing. At the event, Joneigh Khaldun, the state’s chief medical officer and deputy director of health at the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, said confirmed infections had risen by 77% since February and warned that the state ‘may be at the beginning of another boom. ‘

Lynn Sutfin, a public information officer for the department, said it was difficult to assess the Helix data because the company did not have direct contact.

“At the moment we do not have enough evidence to determine whether B.1.1.7 is the dominant variant in our state and we will need more scientific evidence to make the determination,” Sutfin said in an email on questions said.

Judith Persichilli, New Jersey’s health commissioner, also downplayed the threat, saying on Monday at a Trenton virus update that there were 400 reports of CDC variants in the state, the vast majority of which were the B.1.1.7. variant, but added that ‘we have no variants that are considered consequences.’

‘Multiple factors’

Variant is one of ‘several factors that play’, said Adam MacNeil, a CDC epidemiologist, saying that previous training in the US is not necessarily related to new strains. He said that although B.1.1.7 became commonplace, there was also regional variation, including another variant known as B.1.526 rising in the New York area, and the occurrence of two California variants. in the state.

Two variants of the agency are most concerned about evading the effectiveness of the vaccine – B.1.351 and P.1 – remain scarce in the US, which is a good sign, MacNeil said.