CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) – The man-made lakes that produce millions of people in the U.S. and Mexico are expected to decline to historic lows in the coming months, and this will drop to levels that the federal government’s first ever official shortfall and rapid cuts in Arizona and Nevada.
The U.S. Bureau of Recycling this week released 24-month projections predicting less Colorado river water will flow from the Rocky Mountains through Lake Powell and Lake Mead and into the arid deserts of the American Southwest and the Gulf of California. The water levels in the two lakes are expected to drop low enough for the agency to declare an official shortage for the first time, threatening the supply of Colorado river water on which growing cities and farms rely.
This comes as climate change means less snowpack flows into the river and its tributaries, and that warmer temperatures dry up soil and evaporate more river water as it flows through the drought-stricken American West.
The agency’s model project Lake Mead will drop below 1,075 feet (328 meters) for the first time in June 2021. This is the level that yields a shortfall in terms of agreements negotiated by seven states that rely on Colorado River water: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.
However, the April projections will not be binding. Federal officials regularly issue long-term projections, but use those released in August to make decisions about allocating river water. If the projections do not improve by that time, the Bureau of Recycling declares a level 1 deficit condition. The cuts will be implemented in January.
Arizona, Nevada and Mexico have voluntarily given up water under an emergency drought plan for the river that was signed in 2019. A shortfall statement will subject the two U.S. states to their first mandatory reduction. Both rely more on the Colorado River than any other water source, and Arizona will lose about one-third of its stock.
Water office officials say they are confident that their preparatory measures, including conservation and the search for alternative sources, will enable them to withstand cuts if the drought is as expected.
‘The study, while important, is not a surprise. This reflects the effects of the dry and hot conditions over the Colorado River River basin this year, as well as the effects of a prolonged drought that affected the Colorado River’s water supply, “Arizona Department of Water Resources officials said. and Central Arizona Project said in a joint statement.
In Nevada, the agency that supplies water to most of the state built ‘straws’ to draw water from further afield into Lake Mead as levels dropped. It has also created a credit system where it can return recycled water to the reservoir without allocating it.
Colby Pellegrino, director of water resources of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, reassured customers that the precautionary measures would deter them from the effects of cuts. But she warned that more action was needed.
“It is up to all users of the Colorado River to find ways to conserve,” Pellegrino said in a statement.
The Bureau of Recycling has also projected that Lake Mead would drop to the point they would have worried in the past about threatening electricity generation at Hoover Dam. Hydropower serves millions of customers in Arizona, California and Nevada.
To prepare for a future with less water, the bureau spent ten years replacing parts of five of the dam’s 17 turbines that turn to generate power. Len Schilling, a dam manager at the bureau, said the addition of breakhead turbines allows the dam to run more efficiently at lower water levels. He said the turbines would be able to generate power up to a point called ‘deadpool’, when there is not enough water to make the dam function.
But Schilling noted that less water moving through the Hoover Dam means less hydropower has to circulate.
“As the altitude at the lake decreases, our ability to produce power also decreases because we push less water on the turbines,” he said.
Hydropower costs significantly less than the energy sold on the wholesale market because the government charges customers only for the production costs and maintenance of the dam.
Lincoln County Power District general manager Dave Luttrell said infrastructure updates, less Hoover Dam hydropower and additional power from other sources such as natural gas have increased costs and upset customers in his rural Nevada district.
‘Rural economies in Arizona and Nevada live and die from the hydropower produced at Hoover Dam. This may not be a big deal for NV Energy, ” he said of Nevada’s largest utility industry. ‘It could be a decimal point for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. But for Lincoln County, it adds a big impact. ‘
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Metz is a corps member of the Associated Press / Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a non-profit national service program that puts journalists in local newsrooms to cover covert issues.