The US could approach a ‘vaccine wall’ as a new survey indicates that demand for COVID-19 immunization could evaporate by the last week of April, even before the country reaches herd immunity.
As of Friday, 44 percent of U.S. adults received at least one vaccine dose, and a survey published this week found that only 59 percent of adults are interested in being vaccinated immediately.
Another 15 percent said they want to wait three months or one year for the shot, leaving more than a third of the population, who according to Surgo Ventures are not at all interested in being vaccinated.
Health officials have suggested that the country should reach a vaccination rate of 70 to 90 percent to achieve coronavirus herd immunity, the point at which a virus no longer circulates freely because it can not find susceptible hosts.
Only 59% of Americans say they are interested in being vaccinated immediately, indicating that the country could hit a ‘vaccine wall’ as soon as this month
Experts have long warned that the explosion of the vaccine faces challenges after the initial distribution to those who have the enthusiasts to receive it.
Last fall, in a record year, only about 100 million Americans, or a third of the population, got a flu shot. To vaccinate at least 70 percent of the entire U.S. population of 328 million against COVID-19, about 90 percent of American adults must be vaccinated.
Since the first COVID vaccine was made available in December, demand has far exceeded supply, and the biggest challenge for healthcare professionals has been getting enough doses and distributing them to those who want them.
According to the new data, those dynamics are now about to change dramatically. Within days or weeks, nearly every American who is enthusiastic about getting the vaccine has received at least one dose.
According to Surgo’s forecast, the available supply of vaccine doses will rapidly increase demand.
“This analysis shows that despite the general enthusiasm we are now experiencing in the United States, things are really going to get really difficult,” said Dr. Sema K. Sgaier, co-gounder and CEO of Surgo Ventures and deputy professor said. at the TH Chan School of Public Health at Harvard.
People wait in line for hours at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination site in the parking lot of the Bravo Supermarket in a predominantly black and Spanish suburb of Orlando.
The non-profit projects are that by early July there will be enough doses available for 100 percent of the adult population, but that only 52 percent of the adults want to volunteer to get the chance.
The forecast shows a drop in incremental survey that will continue until April 2022, as those who want to wait before being vaccinated are slowly volunteering. But even by next April, projections show that only 58 percent of Americans would have been vaccinated.
Separate surveys have shown that white Republican men and African Americans are among the demographic groups likely to refuse the vaccine.
It is then perhaps not surprising that the deep south, where both groups are abundant, lags far behind in most of the country in the deployment of vaccines.
While New Hampshire leads the country with 92 percent of its available vaccine doses, Mississippi has used only 65 percent of the doses, while Alabama stands at 62 percent. The national average is 77 percent.
However, there are signs that resistance to the vaccine is slowly eroding, and some who were initially skeptical have now warmed up to the idea of gaining immunity.
In a survey conducted in December and January, Surgo found that 43 percent of the adults were cautious but ‘convincing’ against the vaccine, while another 17 percent were a hard-line conspiracy theorist who promised never to take the chance. do not get.
In March, half of the ‘convincing’ camp became enthusiasts, while the ‘conspiracy’ camp remained at 16 per cent.
To achieve a population vaccination rate of 70 percent, 90 percent of adults will need to get the vaccine, which means that at least part of the ‘conspiracy’ camp must be won.
There are signs that resistance to the vaccine is slowly eroding, and some who were initially skeptical have now warmed up to the idea of gaining immunity.
‘Make no mistake, it’s much harder to convince this section of the population – after all, there’s a reason we did not initially regard them as’ convincing’. But we can not get around mathematics, ‘said Sgaier.
Surgo suggests that the conviction of the ‘conspiracy’ camp may be necessary to invoke reliable figures to communicate the relative risks of vaccination compared to the benefits. ‘
According to some estimates, about a quarter of all Americans already have COVID and may have some degree of natural immunity, which will lower the vaccination rate needed to achieve herd immunity.
However, Surgo projects that if those who had COVID were vaccinated at the same rate as the general population, the US would not have a herd immunity by July.