WASHINGTON (AP) – The U.S. military is warning that China is likely to accelerate its timetable for taking control of Taiwan, the island democracy that has been the main source of tension between Washington and Beijing. decades long and is widely seen as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic war between America and China.
The concern over Taiwan comes as China harnesses new forces from years of military build-up. It has become more aggressive towards Taiwan and more assertive in sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. Beijing has also become more confrontational with Washington; senior Chinese officials traded sharp and extraordinary public barbs with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antony Blinken held talks in Alaska last month.
However, a military move against Taiwan would be a test of US support for the island, which Beijing considers a breakaway province. For the Biden government, it could offer the choice of abandoning a friendly, democratic entity or waging a total war over an issue that is not on the radar of most Americans. The United States has long promised to help Taiwan defend itself, but it deliberately left it unclear how far it would go in response to a Chinese attack.
This accumulation of concern is in line with the government’s view that China is a frontline challenge for the United States and that more needs to be done soon – militarily, diplomatically and in other ways – to deter Beijing because it is the United States. if the dominant power wants to displace. in Asia. Some U.S. military leaders regard Taiwan as the most immediate flashpoint.
“We have indications that the risks are actually going to increase,” said adm. Philip Davidson, the most senior U.S. military commander in the Asia-Pacific region, told a Senate panel last month with reference to a Chinese military move to Taiwan.
“The threat is manifesting itself in this decade – in fact in the next six years,” Davidson said.
Days later, Davidson’s expected successor, adm. John Aquilino, not supporting the six-year term, but said during his confirmation hearing to senators: “My opinion is that this issue is much closer to us than most people think.”
Officials from the Biden administration spoke less outspokenly, but stressed the intention to deepen ties with Taiwan and drew warnings from Beijing against the interference of outsiders in what they say is a domestic affair.
On Wednesday, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the military threat against his country was growing, and although he said it was not “particularly disturbing”, the Chinese military has been waging a real battle over the past few years. – type ”exercises closer to the island.
“We are prepared to defend ourselves, that is without a doubt,” Wu told reporters. “We will wage war if we have to wage war, and if we have to defend ourselves until the last day, then we will defend ourselves until the last day.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin China calls the ‘pace threat’ to the United States, and the military services adapt to it. The Marine Corps, for example, is recreating itself with China and Russia in mind after two decades of ground-based fighting against extremists in the Middle East.
Hardly an aspect of China’s military modernization fails to upset the U.S. military. Adm. Charles Richard, who as head of the U.S. Strategic Command is responsible for U.S. nuclear forces, wrote in a recent essay that China is on track to be a ‘strategic counterpart’ to the United States. He said China’s stockpile of nuclear weapons was expected to double “if not triple or quadruple” in the next ten years, although it went beyond the Pentagon’s official view that stocks would “at least double” in that period.
However, Taiwan is considered to be the most pressing issue.
U.S. officials have taken note of the actions of the People’s Liberation Army, which appears to be designed to rattle Taiwan. For example, Chinese airstrikes, including flying around the island, are a daily occurrence, serving to advertise the threat, destroy Taiwanese pilots and planes, and learn more about Taiwan’s capabilities.
Chinese officials mocked Davidson’s comments in Taiwan. A spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, Col. Ren Guoqiang, urged Washington to abandon ‘zero-peace thinking’ and do more to build mutual trust and stability. He said that “attempts by outside forces to use Taiwan to try to subdue China, or the use of Taiwan’s independence forces to use military means to gain independence, are all dead ends.”
The implications of a Chinese military move against Taiwan and its 23 million people are so profound and potentially serious that Beijing and Washington have long managed a fragile middle ground – Taiwanese political autonomy that excludes control of Beijing but is short of formal independence.
Predictions about when China would decide to try to unite Taiwan with the mainland have varied for a long time, and there is no uniform view in the United States. Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, said last week he doubted Chinese leaders were ready to enforce the issue.
“I don’t think it’s coming anytime soon,” he said.
The Trump administration has taken a series of steps to demonstrate a stronger commitment to Taiwan, including sending a cabinet member to Taipei last year, making him the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island since formal diplomatic relations was broken in 1979 for the sake of China. . The Biden government says it wants to cooperate with China where possible, but has objected to a wide range of Chinese actions.
Last week, U.S. Ambassador to the Pacific Island of Palau, John Hennessey-Niland, became the first serving U.S. Ambassador to visit Taiwan. since Washington cut ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing.
China is a regular target for criticism in Congress. Concerns about countering the growing military power are reflected in the course of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which was funded for $ 2.2 billion for 2021. Davidson wants it to support, among other things, establishing a better air defense system to protect US territory Guam from Chinese missiles. and maintaining U.S. military dominance in the region.
Rep. Adam Smith, a Washington Democrat and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, is skeptical about the Army’s determination over dominance.
“Given the way the world works now, it’s just hopelessly unrealistic to let one country dominate,” he said in a recent online forum sponsored by Meridian, a nonpartisan diplomacy center. He said the US military, in partnership with allies, could maintain sufficient strength to send the message: “China, do not invade Taiwan, because the price you are going to pay is not worth it.”
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Associated Press author Ken Moritsugu in Beijing, AP author Huizhong Wu in Taipei, Taiwan, and AP diplomatic writer Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.