U.S. life expectancy has dropped by just over a year – the largest decline in decades – due to the large number of deaths due to COVID-19, according to estimates from a new study.
The researchers are investigating that the average life expectancy in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic will drop by 1.13 years, bringing it to 77.48 years, according to the study, which was published in the journal on Thursday (January 14). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. This is the largest one-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years, and it will bring the country’s life expectancy to its lowest level since 2003, the researchers said.
Life expectancy in the US rarely decreases, and if it does, it is making headlines. Recently, American life expectancy has declined with 0.1 years in 2015, 2016 and 2017 – a trend attributed to the increase in “deaths from despair”, including drug overdose and suicide. The new estimated decrease due to COVID-19 is ten times greater.
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What’s more, the study showed even greater declines in 2020 among black and Latino communities, particularly hard hit by the pandemic. Overall, nearly 400,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S., according to the Johns Hopkins Virus Dashboard.
According to the study, the life expectancy for black people will decrease by 2.1 years, to 72.78 years, and the life expectancy for Latino people will decrease by 3.05 years to 78.77 years. In contrast, life expectancy for white people is expected to decline by 0.68 years to 77.84 years.
“Our study analyzes the effect of this extraordinary number of deaths on life expectancy for the entire country, as well as the consequences for marginalized groups,” studied co-author Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Southern California. said in a statement. ‘The exorbitant effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of black and Latino Americans is likely to be due to their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving poorer health care, leading to more infections and worse outcomes . ‘
The researchers estimate US life expectancy at birth using four scenarios – one in which the COVID-19 pandemic did not occur, and three scenarios that used COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The greater decline in life expectancy for black and Latino populations was due in part to an excessive number of deaths at younger ages for these groups, ‘said co-author Noreen Goldman, a professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton University. said the state. “These findings highlight the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential exposure to viruses among younger individuals who do not consider themselves at high risk.”
It is important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of how long a population of people would live if they experienced the mortality rates in a given period (in this case, in 2020), the authors said. said.
Although Covid-19 vaccines could significantly reduce transmission this year, the researchers do not expect life expectancy to bounce back immediately in 2021.
“While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful, the US is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic,” Andrasfay said. “As a result, and because we expect long-term health and economic consequences that could lead to stronger deaths for many years to come, we expect there to be long-term consequences for life expectancy in 2021.”
Originally published on Live Science.