A new analysis from Surgo Ventures – a global health foundation that provides information for health programs – suggests that the United States will sooner rather than later meet the demand for COVID-19 vaccine, and the focus will shift to helping people get that not the vaccine to take the vaccine.
- According to the analysis, the ‘demand for the vaccine will take place earlier than expected – already at the end of April – and previously the nation reaches the threshold of 70-90% for achieving herd immunity. ”
What it means for herd immunity
The analysis indicates that the US will vaccinate 52% of Americans by July. So if you have the numbers and the number of people already infected with COVID-19, the US will get about 65% immunity, which is less than what is needed for herd immunity.
- Experts believe that herd immunity – where enough people are infected with COVID-19 for the world to return to normal – will be achieved when 70% of the people are protected, as I wrote for Deseret News.
What is a vaccine wall?
Axios suggested that this would mean that the United States would hit a “vaccine wall” where supply would meet demand and the “focus would suddenly shift to persuasive individuals to vaccinate.”
- “This analysis shows that despite the general enthusiasm we are now seeing in the United States, it is really going to get very difficult,” Surgo CEO Sema Sgaier said, according to Axios.
What about Utah?
A new poll by the Deseret News / Hinckley Institute of Politics found that about half of Utah’s residents have already been vaccinated against COVID-19, and another 15% want their COVID-19 vaccine shots.
- That said, nearly 13% of Utahns do not want to get the COVID-19 vaccine and 7% want to wait.
- “Among the 14% who say they will never be vaccinated, 36% do not trust the vaccines, 25% do not think the shots are necessary and 10% are worried about side effects,” Deseret News reported.