The worst of the current wave of coronavirus infections seems to be behind us, with the seven-day average number of new cases declining in almost all parts of the country. Nationally, the average reached a peak of almost 260,000 new cases on January 8; the figure for February 3, 136,442, is down 47 percent from that high.
Some parts of the country, including the Upper Midwest, are experiencing greater declines in new cases than others. Four states in the region – Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Iowa – have seen daily average cases drop by 80 percent or more.
The places with the strongest decline are mostly small provinces where the total number of cases is relatively small, leading to wild fluctuations in the data. Limiting the data to about 600 provinces that had at least 100 daily cases at their recent peak shows that cases have dropped by an average of 60 percent.
Most areas on this map showing smaller declines experienced their winter peaks later, meaning they did not have as much time to descend. The Middle East, for example, peaked in mid-November, while the east coast peaked in mid-January.
The current decline remains strongest in the Midwest. In Hennepin County, home of Minneapolis, the daily incidence dropped from about 1,200 to about 200. Wayne County, home of Detroit, saw a similar drop, to 220 from 1,200.
Although business in the United States is generally declining, some parts of the country are still reporting new business at a higher rate than during the worst peak they experienced last year. This chart compares current rates with previous peaks, which are defined here as the highest daily average before October 1st. For some countries that saw an early pandemic boom when widespread testing was not yet available, these early peaks can be underestimated.
Most of the locations on the map above experienced a relatively small increase in reported cases during the first wave of the pandemic early last year. While now on a downward trajectory, the current number of new cases is higher than anything they experienced during the first six months of the coronavirus crisis.
Maine, for example, saw relatively low numbers of cases until November, when business began to rise before peaking at the end of January, nearly 12 times the state’s high last year. Nevertheless, the current daily number of cases in Maine is tame compared to other parts of the country – such as Texas, the rate of which is three times higher than in Maine if it is adjusted for the population.
In the state of New York, areas outside of New York City were not hit as hard as in the spring of last year, but experienced a cruel second wave this winter. Hawaii is the only state in the country where the first wave was more severe than the second wave in terms of reported cases.
US Average Daily Cases
California
16,269
–64%
+ 62%
It remains to be seen whether the new variants of the coronavirus circulating in different parts of the country will cause a new increase in cases. The more contagious variant first identified in the UK has now been detected in more than half of the states. On the other hand, as more people are vaccinated, the transmission rate may decrease, which may prevent a surge. Although both vaccines currently approved in the United States require two shots, studies show that even one dose offers strong protection against the virus.