Iran’s latest move in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal has attracted the attention of international forces and increased interest in a return to the multilateral agreement as US sanctions are lifted.
The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), last week confirmed a report that Iran had started producing uranium metal, a move that violated the parameters of the 2015 agreement – also known as the JCPOA – which sanctions against Iran lifted in exchange for curbs. to its core program.
Non-enriched uranium metal has little civil use and differs from enriched uranium, which can be used for nuclear energy.
Iran says it intends to produce fuel for a research reactor. IAEA inspectors confirmed a small volume of 3.6 grams (0.1 ounces) of the substance in an Isfahan factory – less than the size of a thimble.
But that has sounded the alarm to some people in the international community, as a larger amount of metal, according to experts, could be used for about half a kilogram to build the core of a nuclear bomb.
An annotated satellite image of construction at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility, with analysis by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey.
Photo: Planet Labs Inc. | AP
“This is one of the most serious core steps they have taken,” a former Obama administration official involved in the original JCPOA negotiations told CNBC, referring to Iran. “It’s pretty challenging.” The former official spoke about anonymity due to professional restrictions on speaking to the press.
The United Kingdom, France and Germany, all supporters of the JCPOA, said in January that Iran “has no credible civilian use for uranium metal.” They described the news as ‘deeply worrying’.
“The production of uranium metal could have military consequences,” they warned.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the Europeans’ ruling was important.
“You know you’ll be in trouble if the Europeans do not buy the ‘civilian use’ argument put forward by Tehran. That’s what should sound the alarm bells, “he said.
Incremental setbacks
Iran has been steadily increasing its compliance with the JCPOA since May 2019, one year after the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement and began imposing heavy ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on the country for what it described as its destabilizing regional activities.
Tehran recently increased its uranium enrichment and supply levels beyond the limits set out in the agreement in an effort to pressure Washington to lift the sanctions – which paralyzed the Iranian economy – and return to the agreement, something the Biden government has expressed its desire to do.
What is important is that Iran’s officials emphasize that the moves are reversible and that they hope to return to the agreement under Biden. But the White House says Iran must first abide by the agreement, while Iran says US sanctions must first be lifted, setting a deadlock.
‘It’s reversible’
Yet local experts believe the nuclear deal could remain salvageable.
Iran “is trying to underline how important it is for them to get the US back into the JCPOA,” the former Obama official said. “I do not think it undermines the possibility of getting back into the JCPOA, but it is worrying.”
Aniseh Tabrizi, a senior research fellow and Iran expert at the Royal United Services Institute, agrees.
“It is reversible, especially if it is done in the short term,” she said of uranium metal production in Iran. “There has been condemnation, but no sign that this is the end of any attempt to revive the talks on the JCPOA.”
In the meantime, however, “Iran” has the ability to put significant short-term pressure on the other signatories to the agreement, said Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House, a British think tank.
“But in the long run, ‘she said,’ it is the United States that needs to get into the joint commission discussions, ‘because the US is central to the agreement and sanctions easing for Iran.
An important date to look at is February 21st. At that point, new tough laws passed by Iran’s parliament come into force, including a ruling that prevents further inspections by the IAEA. But it is crucial, Vakil said, that the crisis before Iran’s election in June should be curtailed.
“If the international community really wants to tackle this crisis with Iran, it is essential to implement the JCPOA compliance strategy and a plan to talk to Iran and the Joint Commission,” she said. . “The sooner they can roll it out, the better they can mitigate Iran’s further efforts to increase the ante.”
For Ben Taleblu of FDD, Iran’s tactics so far are dangerous and useless. “Tehran’s continued nuclear escalation means the new transgressions are necessarily more dangerous,” he said. “Despite Iran’s escalation strategy, neither the Trump nor the Biden team has reversed major economic sanctions.”