There are probably about 1.7 million undiscovered viruses in the wild, half of which could spill over to infect humans and cause new pandemics, UN scientists have warned.
In their report, a team of 22 experts said that unless action is taken, pandemics will emerge more frequently, spread faster, kill more people and cause more economic damage.
A ‘transformative change’ in the way we deal with infectious diseases – towards a preventative attitude – is needed to escape an ‘era of pandemics’, they said.
COVID-19 is at least the sixth pandemic to begin since the outbreak of the ‘Spanish flu’ in 1918, which infected a third of the world’s population and killed 20-50 million people.
The expert panel was convened by the UN Intergovernmental Platform for Scientific Policy on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, or IPBES.
There are probably about 1.7 million undiscovered viruses in the wild, half of which could infect humans and cause new pandemics, UN scientists have warned (stock image)
The report said that all pandemics have so far been carried in microbes by animals – but their emergence is entirely due to human activities.
Nearly a third of ‘zoonotic’ diseases that spill over from animals are due to the loss of forests, which increases the likelihood of close contact between us and wildlife.
And studies have shown that the animals that thrive as a result of such destruction – such as bats and rats – also have the most likely diseases.
About five diseases cross the species barrier in humans each year, with the report ‘every one has the potential to spread and become a pandemic’.
The experts said that humanity’s efforts to limit the loss of biodiversity, such as deforestation, livestock production and the wildlife trade, would prevent in the future.
This, they suggest, can be achieved by taxing such high pandemic risk operations, will reduce the contact between animals and animals and the spread of diseases.
“There is no great mystery about the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic – or of any modern pandemic,” IPBES workshop chairman and EcoHealth Alliance president Peter Daszak said in a press release.
“The same human activities that are driving climate change and biodiversity loss are also causing the risk of pandemics through its impact on our environment.”
‘Changes in the way we use land; the expansion and intensification of agriculture; and unsustainable trade, production and consumption disrupt nature and increase contact between wildlife, livestock, pathogens and humans. ‘
“This is the road to pandemics,” he concluded.
The report warns that a ‘slow and uncertain path’ simply responds to new diseases after they emerge – depending on public health measures and the development of new vaccines and therapeutic agents.
It has the potential, he continued, to lead to widespread human suffering, but also significant damage to the world economy.
So far, all pandemics have originated in microbes carried by animals, but their emergence depends entirely on human activities, the report explained.
Experts have calculated that the total global cost of the COVID-19 pandemic by July 2020 was approximately £ 5.8-111.6 billion ($ 8-16 billion) – which is the cost of £ 4.2-6.4 billion ($ 5.8-8.8 billion) includes due to social distance and travel restrictions.
Pandemics in the past have also not come without a significant economic toll. The 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, for example, cost about £ 38.5 billion, while Zika outbreaks in South America and the Caribbean cost about £ 5– £ 13 billion between 2015–2017.
Future outbreaks, the IPBES report warned, could cause potential annual economic damage in the order of £ 0.7 billion ($ 1 billion).
The experts believe the cost of reducing the risk of future pandemics is about 100 times less than the cost of responding to such crises, and therefore offer ‘strong economic incentives for transformative change’.
To prevent outbreaks, we need to reduce the drivers of biodiversity loss, such as deforestation and wildlife trade, experts said. This – which can be achieved by taxing activities with a high pandemic risk – will reduce contact with nature and animals
“The overwhelming scientific evidence points to a very positive conclusion – we have the increasing ability to prevent pandemics,” Dr Daszak added.
‘But the way we approach it now largely ignores the ability. Our approach has stagnated effectively – we still rely on efforts to contain and control diseases after they emerge, through vaccines and therapeutic agents.
“We can escape the era of pandemics, but it requires a much greater focus on prevention and response.”
“The fact that human activities have been able to fundamentally change our natural environment does not always have to be a negative outcome.”
“It also provides convincing evidence of our power to bring about the necessary change to reduce the risk of future pandemics, while at the same time benefiting conservation and reducing climate change.”
The full findings of the report have been published on the IPBES website.