UK Govt walks back ‘Third Wave’ Claim, No Corona Surge this summer

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Government scientists in Britain have reportedly pushed back against models that suggested a third wave of the Chinese coronavirus would hit the country over the summer months as restrictions on closure were lifted.

Projections made last week by the UK’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling, Operational sub-group (SPI-MO) of the SAGE quango, painted a serious picture for another possible outbreak of COVID-19, which even suggests that a third wave in June may be comparable to the second wave of the virus in January.

However, senior scientific experts in the government have said it The Telegraph that the modeling is based on shaky presuppositions and that any further potential outbreak would only occur in the autumn months, even if mask wear and other restrictions are scrapped.

The modeling was compared to the ‘Project Fear’ tactic used before the 2016 EU referendum, and was criticized for failing to explain the UK’s successful vaccination system as well as the typical seasonal nature of respiratory viruses.

An unnamed senior government scientist – the Telegraph is perhaps the closest British newspaper to the Conservative government and frequently cites unnamed sources in Downing Street – told the Broadway that there were some major reservations about modeling, adding: ‘A lot also depends on seasonality, so it can well be that it’s more like autumn than summer. ”

‘Will it be influenced by what is happening in Europe? Well, possibly in the sense that if you travel a lot back and forth, it can increase.

‘I think the expectation is that there will be further waves, but it will not be as big as the ones we had, unless things go wrong. Timing, I think it’s more likely to be autumn than summer, but we’ll see. ”

The review comes as beer gardens, gyms, barbershops and shops in England have finally been allowed by the government to reopen their doors to the public, although it is still limited to at least next month.

Researchers from the University of Edinburgh also doubt the possibility of the emergence of the Chinese virus during the summer, suggesting that sunshine limits the spread of the coronavirus. The study suggested that skin could release nitric oxide under the sunlight of the summer months, limiting the virus’ ability to replicate.

One of the authors of the study, Dr Richard Weller, said: ‘There are still so many that we do not understand about Covid-19, which has resulted in so many deaths worldwide. These early results provide exposure to sunlight as one way to potentially reduce the risk of death. ‘

The chair of Health Geography at the University of Edinburgh and another co-author of the research, Professor Chris Dibben, added: ‘The link between Covid-19 mortality, season and latitude was quite striking. Here we offer an alternative explanation for this phenomenon. . ”

While previous studies have linked the amount of vitamin D in a population to lower mortality rates for the virus, researchers in Edinburgh have found no correspondence.

Scientists from Public Health England (PHE) have also suggested that Britain get enough sunlight between April and September to limit the spread of the virus. However, the government health body has warned that there is insufficient ultraviolet light between October and March to affect the spread.

Although some closure measures have been lifted in the past month, the number of people dying from the coronavirus in the UK has continued to decline, with only seven deaths reported on Sunday, the lowest since 14 September last year.

Follow Kurt Zindulka on Twitter here @KurtZindulka

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