ABU DHABI, UAE – When Conor McGregor is involved, there is always potential for hyperbole. If you have a star that big, everything is likely to get a notch – including comments related to it or an upcoming battle. But allow me to say, I have been really looking forward to this moment since the end of 2016.
Whether it all comes to its right, the only time will tell. But I believe we will finally be able to realize the true fighting potential of McGregor in 2021. Going back to the end of 2016, McGregor was the reigning featherweight and lightweight champion. He avenged his submission to Nate Diaz. He was not considered the absolute best fighter in the world, but he was on the radar for the honor.
Of course, we all know what happened after that. McGregor (22-4), who fights Dustin Poirier in a non-title lightweight fight at UFC 257 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi (main ticket at 22:00 ET, buy below pay-per-view), has a lucrative boxing match against Floyd Mayweather followed. in 2017 he experienced various legal problems, lost a championship fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018, did not fight at all in 2019 and participated in 2020 once for less than a minute.
And honestly, it’s not hard to understand. McGregor rose to fame levels never before in 2016, and he made money with the Mayweather fight. The match was entertaining and it paid McGregor more than any MMA fight would have, but it was also a farce and a monumental pivot of what he could achieve in MMA.
It’s wild to think: McGregor has been in the UFC since 2013, and one could argue that he only competed twice in his most natural weight class. His cut to featherweight was manageable but cruel. And he is not even close to the average size of a welterweight. McGregor is a lightweight, and we saw him only compete there in 2016, when he won the belt from Eddie Alvarez, and 2018, when he failed to regain it against Nurmagomedov.
Look, we know who McGregor is as a celebrity and a public figure. He has a clear impact on the whole combat sports industry, as well as the sports media industry as a whole. And we also know a lot about him as a fighter. We know he is extremely talented. We know he was the UFC’s first ‘champion’. We know he’s good – very good.
But we do not know how wonderful he is. This is the part that still needs to be defined. If he had never deviated from the world of a ‘Money Fight’ with Mayweather and who had more or less disappeared from the competition, what would he have done? Has the lightweight championship defended multiple times? Challenged for a third band? Can he even have hit Nurmagomedov under different circumstances, if he maintained the momentum of 2016?
I really hope we’re going to find out. McGregor has repeatedly said he is committed to this 155-pound frame and he wants to be active in 2021. We know McGregor is a great fighter. I want to find out this year exactly how wonderful he can be.
By the numbers
6: Knockouts in lightweight for Poirier, who committed for the third most in the division’s history, one behind Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza.
91: Percentage of McGregor wins he finished (19 knockouts and one submission in 22 wins).
1.95: Knockdowns per 15 minutes in the cage for McGregor, the eighth highest rate in UFC history.
6.45: Significant strikes per minute ended up in the Octagon by Poirier, the third most in UFC lightweight history, behind only Justin Gaethje’s 7.46 and TJ Grant’s 6.83.
8: Pay-per-view events that have been brought to the forefront by McGregor since 2015, including this one. Only Daniel Cormier (9) did it more. This will be the fourth McGregor PPV main event to be a non-title fight, the most of any in the last ten years.
Sources: ESPN Stats & Information and UFC Stats
A look back
Since then …
Five against five
Dustin Poirier’s most recent results
Win: Dan Hooker (UD, 27 June 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub3, 7 September 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Max Holloway (UD, 13 April 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Wen: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, 28 July 2018)
Wen: Justin Gaethje (TKO4, 14 April 2018)
Conor McGregor’s most recent results
Winner: Donald Cerrone (TKO1, January 18, 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub4, October 6, 2018; watch on ESPN +)
Winner: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, 12 November 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Winner: Nate Diaz (MD, August 20, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Nate Diaz (Sub2, March 5, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Dom & Gil’s film studio
Dominick Cruz on why Poirier-McGregor 1 went this way:
Gilbert Melendez on how Poirier-McGregor 2 might turn out differently:
And the winner is …
“I think Poirier is going to try to fight smart and win a mixed martial arts fight, and not make it a fight or a wrestling match,” said Urijah Faber, the Hall of Famer. “Conor looked very impressive in terms of his athletics. He seems to be taking it really seriously. I lean on Conor’s side again.”
Faber is one of several fighters and coaches who have weighed in with analysis and predictions. Look what they had to say here.
A deeper dive into the outline of the fight is ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez, the two-time Strikeforce lightweight champion and a former WEC lightweight champion. His starting point: that it’s a rematch.
“McGregor got the best of Poirier years ago,” Melendez writes, “and no matter what, it will weigh heavily on the mindset of both fighters.”
How to watch the fights
Watch the preliminaries on ESPN or ESPN +: Download the ESPN app | WatchESPN | TV
Don’t have ESPN? Get instant access.
Do not have ESPN + for the preliminary round and PPV? Get it here.
Did you buy the fight on your phone and want to stream it on your TV? Find out how here.
There is also FightCenter, offering live updates for every UFC card.
Saturday’s battle map
PPV (via ESPN +), 22:00 ET
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor | Lightweight
Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler | Lightweight
Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood | Women’s flyweight
Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov | Medium weight
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas | Straw weight
ESPN / ESPN +, 20:00 pm
Matt Frevola teen Arman Tsarukyan | Lightweight
Brad Tavares vs. Antonio Carlos Junior | Medium weight
Julianna Pena Teen Sara McMann | Women’s bantamweight
Khalil Rountree Jr. teen Marcin Prachnio | Light Heavyweight
ESPN +, 19:00 ET
Movsar Evloev vs. Nik Lentz | Catch weight (150 lbs)
Amir Albazi teen Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Men’s flyweight
A champion raises the curtain
Former Bellator Lightweight Champion Michael Chandler is making his Octagon debut at the UFC 257 fellow main event, with Dan Hooker, who is No. 6 on the ESPN lightweight rankings. Chandler is number 7.
Chandler will be the ninth former Bellator champion to advance to the UFC, with the previous eight being 5-3 in their debut. Those who won: Alexander Volkov, Lyman Good, Ben Askren, Will Brooks and Zach Makovsky. Those who lost: Hector Lombard, Eddie Alvarez and Joe Soto.
Alvarez is the only former Bellator champion to have won a UFC title.
A few notable numbers – or why the judges might not even have to bother taking their seats at the cage: Chandler scored 76% of his career fights (nine knockouts and seven submissions in 21 wins), and Hooker ‘s final rate is 85% (ten knockouts and seven submissions in 20 career wins).
Two more things to know (from ESPN Statistics and Information)
1. Joanne Calderwood, who faces title challenger Jessica Eye, has scored 444 major strikes in her UFC career, the third most in the women’s flyweight history. Calderwood is No. 5 on the ESPN rankings for the 125-pound division.
2. The opening of the main map is a match between top Brazilian sprinters Marina Rodriguez, who is 8 on the ESPN rankings of 115 pounds, and Amanda Ribas, who is 4-0 in the Octagon. Rodriguez is recovering from her first career defeat, a loss by two decisions against former champion Carla Esparza in July. Ribas finishes in seven of her ten career wins (four submissions, three knockouts).
ESPN’s Jeff Wagenheim contributed to this preview of the fight.