Typhoon Surigae has been moving slowly towards the Philippines since it developed earlier this week, but over the past 24 hours the storm has increased rapidly.
Surigae, known locally in the Philippines as Typhoon Bising, developed on Thursday from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 215 km / h.
This rapid intensification occurred due to the ideal conditions for hurricane / typhoon development: Wind shift, or the change of wind speed and direction with altitude in the atmosphere, was very low. Sliding against high winds can tear storms as they break, but low sliding allows them to feed the extremely hot water and thrive into a powerful storm.
Continued low shear and excellent outflow will allow Surigae to thrive in the warm water that is a few degrees above normal for this time of year. In fact, it is possible that Surigae may reach superphone status (winds of 150+ mph, 240+ mph) the next day or two.
Forecast moves closer to the Philippines
Earlier in the week, Surigae would track west to the direction of the Philippines before turning north and north, comfortably missing the Philippines to the east. Over the past few days, however, several weather forecast models have shown a trend that the storm could follow closer to the Central Philippines.
On this current track, the strongest winds of more than 100 km / h (160 km / h) and the worst rainfall abroad will remain, but the storm will be close enough to tropical storms (39-73 km / h, 63 -117 km / h). ) and 100 to 200 centimeters of rain.
This rain and wind can be enough to cause localized flooding, minor damage to property and power outages. PAGASA has already issued warnings as conditions are expected to deteriorate on Sunday. If the westerly trend continues, the impact will worsen and additional warnings will be issued.
Regardless of the exact trajectory, a storm of this magnitude will produce large waves and seafarers in the region are advised to be careful.
Even if Surigae stays abroad this weekend, it should be watched next week as it moves slowly to the northwest and north.
How much the storm curve will determine the impact on northeastern parts of Luzon. Some weather forecast models show that by Tuesday and Wednesday the storm is also getting very close to this part of the Philippine coast, but other models and official forecasts remain further abroad with limited impact. Time will tell.