Two alarming new coronavirus variants – first identified in Brazil and the United Kingdom – have been detected by Stanford Medicine in the San Francisco Bay Area amid growing concerns that the virus’ continued evolution will help it spread vaccines. to combat, spread, kill and evade the deadly disease.
The discovery of these strains, coupled with increasing numbers of California’s own homemade version, comes as no surprise to experts – as viruses move through a population, it inevitably changes. And they ignore international borders.
But this finding underscores the need for accelerated vaccinations to prevent their spread, as well as continued masking, social distance, and isolation of sick people. The spread of these variants means that vaccine manufacturers may need to develop shots to protect against it.
“The general strategy to prevent these things is just to get everyone vaccinated,” said George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco. As long as we have non-immunized people, the virus will mutate, he said.
“The more people we can immunize,” he said, “the smaller the risk of developing newer and newer strains that are more vaccine-resistant than those that currently exist.”
The strains from Brazil and the United Kingdom have been found in Stanford’s Clinical Virology Laboratory, which has developed tests to detect the presence of viruses that are already spreading around the world. The Stanford team is investigating hundreds of viral specimens collected from people across the Bay, with plans to expand. They also sequence entire viral genomes to identify new mutations as they emerge.
Finding viral variants and quickly identifying new mutations is crucial to detecting sudden changes in the pandemic.
“I expected to see these variants sooner,” said Dr. Ben Pinsky, medical director of the laboratory. The laboratory uploaded the genomes of the Bay Area variants to GISAID, an international database shared with global researchers.
“We need to continue to monitor the prevalence of these mutations – and determine how common they are in our population, with the expectation that they are likely to increase to an increasing extent,” he said.
In the Darwinian struggle in life, the most successful viruses are viruses that spread quickly and can evade our defenses. Over time, they become dominant.
But there are not an infinite number of mutations, says dr. Barry Bloom, professor of public health and former dean of Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. If the COVID-19 virus makes too many changes, it can no longer infect our cells effectively.
The news comes when two vaccine manufacturers reported new data on their clinical trials that raised concerns about viral mutations. On Thursday, Novavax said the vaccine was 90% effective in the UK, but only 49% effective in South Africa, where a new, very worrying coronavirus variant has become commonplace. Johnson and Johnson said Friday that the single-dose COVID-19 vaccine was 72% effective among volunteers in clinical trials in the US, but only 66% among those in Latin America and 57% among those in South Africa.
According to a recent laboratory study, the Pfizer vaccine resembles the proteins of the British and South African varieties. A laboratory study of the Moderna vaccine has shown that it is effective against the eggs of the British variant, but that it works less well against the proteins of the South African variant. As a precaution, the company is now developing a booster shot.
To date, the U.S. has distributed 48 million doses of vaccines; of which 26 million were administered.
Confronted with the pace of viral change, Rutherford proposed prioritizing vaccinations in areas where these variants occur – a version of what is known as ‘ring vaccination’.
“I think there could be strategic focus in those areas – getting more vaccinations from more people,” he said.
Stanford’s new test uses a technology called reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, or RT-PCR, to find the virus ‘genetic material in samples collected from humans’ noses. Then, using DNA probes, they identify whether the samples were infected by the original strain of the coronavirus – or one of the new variants.
“Our hope is that Stanford’s increased surveillance, the combination of RT-PCR and sequence for whole, will provide critical information to help the health efforts over the coming months,” Pinsky said.
To date, the highly contagious British variant – known as B.1.1.7 – has only been found in the provinces of San Diego and San Bernardino, as well as 28 other states. It is known to be more transmissible, and there is evidence that it can also be more deadly. The Stanford Laboratory found that one confirmed case of 837 samples had been screened. This variant is expected to become the dominant tribe of the country by the beginning of April.
The Brazilian variant discovered in the Bay – called P.2 – is not well understood. So far, there is less fear than his cousin P.1, who is now destroying the Brazilian city of Manaus. P.2, distributed in the state of Rio de Janeiro, shares only one of P.1’s three mutations. But the shared mutation, called an ‘escape mutation’, is worrying because it helps the virus evade our antibodies. This may therefore reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine. Of the 837 samples selected, the Stanford Laboratory found no evidence of P.1 – but one case of P.2.
“There is a slight difference” between the two Brazilian tribes, Pinsky said. “But I think it’s fair to say that there are the same problems.”
The South African variant has not yet been detected by Stanford. South Carolina on Thursday reported two cases of this variant to non-travelers from different parts of the state, indicating that the community has spread. Vaccines and some antibody treatments may be less effective against this strain. One study found that half of the patients had a complete loss of immune recognition; the others showed a modest decline, with probably still enough immunity to be protective.
But our variant in California – which was only reported 12 days ago – is increasingly plentiful, representing about 20 percent of the Stanford series’ show series. This strain is not currently of concern because it is vulnerable to both vaccinations and treatments.
“It is a wake-up call to all of us that we will continue to see the evolution of mutants,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said Friday at a White House press release. ‘The virus has a playing field to mutate. If we stop its replication, it can not change. ”
“It’s an incentive to vaccinate as many people as possible,” he said, “as fast as we can.”