It is unclear whether Trump saw the report.
The findings are based on an analysis of the exit poll in ten states. Five of them – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – are states that Trump lost after winning them in 2016. The other five – Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – are states that Trump won in both elections.
The report falls on a variety of demographics where Trump experienced a crucial turnaround in 2020, among white seniors, the same group that drove him to the White House. According to the autopsy, Trump saw “the biggest erosion with white voters, especially white men,” and that he “lost field to almost every age group.” In the five states that switched to Biden, Trump’s largest decline was among voters aged 18-29 and 65 and older.
Suburbs – which bolted from Trump after 2016 – also played a big role. The report says the former president suffered a “double-digit erosion” with “White College-educated voters across the board.”
The image of the election presented in the report is widely shared by political professionals in both parties, if not by Trump and his legions of supporters. Trump never made a concession to Biden, and until his last days in office, he clung to the disturbing idea that the election had been stolen.
Fabrizio declined to comment on the post-mortem examination. A Trump spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump’s personal behavior, the autopsy makes clear, contributed to his defeat. “Biden had a clear advantage over POTUS because he was considered honest and trustworthy,” Fabrizio writes.
Trump’s response to the pandemic was also critical. According to the autopsy, coronavirus was registered as the most important issue among voters, and that Biden won the voters by almost 3 to 1 margin. The majority registered Trump’s disapproval of the virus.
Most voters said they preferred to fight the coronavirus over reopening the economy, although the president placed the latter strong emphasis. And about 75 percent of voters – most of whom favored Biden – said they wear the public disguise.
The report also indirectly raises questions about the decision of the re-election campaign to interrupt commercials on TV during the summer and save resources until the autumn. According to the findings, nearly 9-in-10 voters decided who they would support by the last month of the race.
Fabrizio is not the only Trump adviser to offer a post-mortem since Nov. 3. John McLaughlin, another Trump opinion pollster, published a report on the conservative Newsmax website the week after the election.
Meanwhile, advisers to former Vice President Mike Pence have brought in several polls to inform him of their conclusions after the election, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Among the takeaways were that Trump was winning during the final weeks of the race and that his rallies helped get Republicans going in House and Senate races. But pollsters also made it clear that Trump, although there was significant support, was widespread exhaustion among the president.
Within Trump’s inner circle, Fabrizio has long believed that Trump should prioritize the pandemic to win re-election. Last summer, he drafted a 79-page memo, arguing that Trump should first focus on dealing with the pandemic, rather than reopening the economy and recommending, among other things, that he should have encouraged people to wear masks. rather than mocking the practice.