The Mets are considering investing in another big item in the off-season or adding more players to deepen the quality of the overall list.
The key piece could not be free agent JT Realmuto unless they plan to turn James McCann into a $ 40 million backup. The Mets have not been linked in any recent trade talks with Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant.
That leaves Trevor Bauer.
Or not. Steve Cohen has earned his billions as an expert in risk assessment. The decision could be, for example, that the Mets can achieve just as many victories, for example Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brad Hand, while accepting much less of a financial commitment than Bauer.
Or does Cohen see it: Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson with Noah Syndergaard in the wings? The Nationals won the 2019 World Series with a rotation that looked like that, and probably less offense and bullpen than the Mets currently possess.
However, for almost any Bauer deal, the Mets will rise beyond the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold, and Cohen has indicated he wants to stay below that number in 2021. Mets will lose their second pick in June’s draft and $ 500,000 in international lock money if they sign him. And the Mets are committed to complementing their farming system.
This leads to signs that the Mets are happy that they have added the midfielder they wanted in Francisco Lindor. No one would be surprised if one day there was a warning for a press conference announcing Lindor’s new $ 300 million expansion, and that’s the significant financial outlay this year. Between Lindor, Carrasco, McCann, Trevor May, the retention of Stroman and a few other useful pieces or two, the Mets could trumpet a strong first season under Cohen, albeit with the disturbing revelations that led to the firing of the new GM Jared Porter.
Still, Bauer titrates. It can not escape me that when Sandy Alderson was appointed team president, he said he did not feel overwhelmed when asked about the cheeky Bauer. After all, Alderson was the man who oversaw the Bash Brothers of Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley three decades ago. Bauer has a large social media presence. Sometimes it brought controversy. You can expect more because Bauer is determined to build his brand. But in doing so, the added benefit is that he will also increase interest in baseball and possibly bring fans who do not agree with a team to a new organization.
But at what cost will a team see if this is all true? With what risk?
Despite COVID-19, the leading players in the market have been treated well. Maybe that would not be true with Bauer. Due to lack of sustained excellence or personality issues.
However, until Bauer does not get the big payday – more than Max Scherzer’s seven years at $ 210 million, perhaps north of Stephen Strasburg’s seven years at $ 245 million – I’ll believe it’s a goal of his camp and a possibility stay. A few years ago, Bryce Harper was dealing with a short commitment, but an annual record value of the Dodgers or less per year, but much more money from the Phillies. Like most players, Harper took the biggest guarantee – $ 330 million over 13 years.
Bauer could very well be confronted with the same puzzle, in part because the Dodgers are at least hiding on him. And Bauer is rare (perhaps unique). He believes so much in his training methods that he talked about the willingness to go short or even year after year and just re-enter the market. Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano recently signed with the Yomiuri Giants again for four years, but with the opt-out after each season to retain his right to try and get to MLB earlier. Bauer can apply for something similar – a shorter term for less total money, but with the chance to go out and chase the longer money annually if he wants to.
But I suppose taking less overall money is not the best unless the average value of Gerrit Cole’s current record is $ 36 million annually. Would any team, we say, four years at $ 160 million for the 2020 Cy Cy Young winner?
The Dodgers? The Blue Jays? I keep wondering about the twins. They have chased excellent beginners over the past few years, such as Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler, without securing it. Their head of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, had Bauer in Cleveland and knows that all the techniques that Bauer put forward that brought animus early in his Indian period have now become the mainstream in the game, and that Bauer has a willing helpfulness and had a positive impact on beginners such as Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger.
If relationships matter (and usually do), twin GM Thad Levine and one of Bauer’s agents, Jon Fetterolf, were co-captains of the 1993 Haverford College baseball team – although 1992 captain Josh Byrnes was executive. head of Dodgers, even closer to Fetterolf. Yep, always look at the Dodgers.
But should we keep an eye on the Mets? Cohen, of course, has the money. Does he want the risk?