These types of tornadoes are consistent for a long period of time on the ground, as opposed to a typical one that can be on the ground for just a few minutes.
The system responsible for these strong storms is currently affecting the Southwest and will migrate through the Rocky Mountains and emit to the Plains by the middle of the week, allowing the atmosphere to form dangerous storms.
“We have more and more hot and humid air over the Gulf of Mexico that will lift rapidly northwards – the conditions on a large scale are very favorable for severe storms. We think of the smaller details we often see on higher days, especially with ‘ a significant tornado potential will also be in place, “said Bill Bunting, head of forecasting activities at the SPCA.
“This is a very strong system that we have been watching the potential for severe storms as it develops and moves northeast, from the Plains to the Ohio Valley,” said meteorologist Jason Holmes at the NWS office in Birmingham, Alabama. , told CNN. .
The time frame of the storms
The threat of thunderstorms already begins Tuesday night for much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northeast and central Texas.
However, the biggest risk is likely to be during the overnight stay of Tuesday and continue until Wednesday morning. An isolated tornado will be possible, especially in Central Oklahoma, but the biggest risks are heavy hail and damaging winds.
There is also a separate risk for some storms across the South during the day, including parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
“Our actual focus day at the moment is Wednesday. We can see a fairly large threatening thunderstorm and potentially severe thunderstorms,” Bunting said.
Wednesday to Wednesday night is predicted to be the most active day in terms of severe thunderstorms this week. According to the SPCA, there is currently a “moderate risk” of severe weather in eight states in the South. A “moderate risk” is a level 4 out of 5 in terms of its potential severity. These include Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.
The SPCA said that a “moderate risk” means that there are major storms, and that all threats are possible during the drafting of Wednesday – tornadoes, heavy hail of at least golf ball size and intense winds of at least 58 km / h.
Morning showers and thunderstorms are currently forecast for parts of the Gulf Coast. Some of these storms may be severe, but the biggest threat rises in the afternoon and continues until Wednesday evening.
During the afternoon hours, some of the states, especially in the “moderate” or “enhanced” risks, may see supercellular thunderstorms develop. These types of storms are separate, individual storms that are known to produce tornadoes. Not all of these storms will produce tornadoes, but given the favorable environment for tornadoes, it will be possible with some of them.
There will then be a final line of storms pushing up along the cold front in the evening near the Mississippi River and following east through these southern states. The storms along this front must be watched for tornadoes, damaging winds and heavy hail.
“This (overnight) wave of severe storms probably has the greater potential for stronger long-distance tornadoes,” according to the NWS office in Birmingham.
There could be ‘potentially some waves of severe weather, starting in the morning, then during the middle of the day, and then later in the evening when the cold front comes in,’ Holmes said when discussing the Central Alabama forecast. in that ‘Moderate risk’.
By Thursday, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will shift to the U.S. east coast. The region from central Florida to central Virginia is currently being monitored by the SPCA for this risk. Some areas are currently at level 3 out of 5, ‘Improved risk’, according to the Storm Forecast Center. At present, the specific timing and threats of the storms are unknown.
Severe storms typical of South
Severe thunderstorms are not uncommon for this part of the country and during this time of year. Historically, strong tornadoes in mid-March were the most common in northern Mississippi and Alabama, joining this week’s predicted storms.
“The details will play an important role in how bad things get and where the storms strike. I think what’s important is to know that this is a typical early season in the southeastern United States, in the sense that storms move fast and they will continue into darkness, ‘Bunting said.
“One dangerous aspect of tornadoes in the South is that they can occur in the middle of the night when people are asleep, unlike storms from Tornado Alley, which usually become less severe after sunset,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
“It’s really important to heed the warning and not wait until you have a visual confirmation (of the storm),” Bunting said. “It’s time for people to make a plan in different ways to get the warnings.”
This includes setting up notifications about alerts on your phone. Many weather programs provide alerts based on your location, but you can also turn on tornado alert notifications in the settings.