Subscribe to the Guardian Today US Newsletter
Donald Trump may have left the White House, but his shadow remains large in Washington and the Republican Party as the Senate prepares for its second indictment.
The 50 Republicans in the Senate are wrestling over how to appease Trump’s supporters, who are still a solid part of the party’s base, while acknowledging that the former president fueled the January 6 attack on the US Capitol.
The senators’ dispute underscores how Republican lawmakers are tied to Trump, even after his term ends, raising questions about the direction the party will move forward when so much of its base remains loyal to a president who oversees hold on to the loss of both chambers of Congress and the White House.
Trump’s continued power over Republican lawmakers was fully visible last week as 45 senators voted to dismiss the indictment for the time being. The senators on January 6 avoided defending Trump’s behavior, but rather that it was unconstitutional to accuse a former president.
“Accusation is to remove from office, and the accused have already left office,” said Rand Paul, who led the charge to dismiss the trial. The Kentucky Republican added that the trial “would drag our large country into the gutter of unrest and vitriol.”
Assuming that the 45 Republican senators who supported the dismissal of the trial also vote to acquit Trump, there is no chance the former president will be convicted of inciting insurgency. It would take 17 Republican senators, along with every Senate Democrat, to condemn Trump.
Tara Setmayer, a Conservative commentator who left the Republican Party in November, described senators ‘support for dismissing the trial as “the most egregious example” of Republican lawmakers’ unwillingness to stand up to Trump.
“It’s amazing when you look at how many opportunities the party has had to take the exit and get away from Trumpism,” Setmayer said. “The result is that the Republican Party is now an anti-democratic, illiberal, pro-seditionist party.”
The problem for Republican lawmakers who may want to split with Trump is that the former president remains overwhelmingly popular at the party’s base. According to an NBC News poll conducted after the Capitol attack, 87% of Republicans still approve of Trump’s performance as president. Reports that Trump was considering launching a third party only heightened Republicans’ fear of being challenged from the right.
Trump’s popularity has left Republican lawmakers with three main options: stay in the former president’s good mercy, resign or run the risk of being elected by a Trump opponent. This dynamic played out last week, when one prominent Republican senator announced his resignation and a congresswoman for accusation faced the threat of a primary challenge before Trump.
Senator Rob Portman, a Republican from Ohio, announced last Monday that he would not seek another term, raising Democrats’ hopes of returning to office next year. In a statement explaining his decision, Portman said: ‘We live in an increasingly polarized country where members of both parties are being pushed further to the right and further to the left, and that means too few people are actively seeking common ground. ground. . ”
Three days after Portman’s announcement, Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz held a rally in Wyoming to track down Liz Cheney, one of the ten Republicans in the House who voted last month to accuse Trump. Gaetz, one of Trump’s staunchest defenders in Congress, told a crowd of about 800 in Cheyenne: “We are fighting for the soul of the Republican Party, and I intend to win it.”
Trump loyalists like Gaetz rely on the idea that the president’s popularity at the Republican base can lead them to victory, but that philosophy does not have a successful record. Since Trump took office in 2017, Democrats have taken control of the House, Senate and White House.
“Being negative and being against the Liberals may be enough to win a few elections, but it is not enough to form a governing coalition. Ultimately, you have to be for something as well as against something, ”said Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. “Right now, the American conservative voter base is divided on what they are for, but they are united on what they are against.”
The ideological divide among conservatives was evident in December, when Trump called for greater stimulus controls as part of a coronavirus relief package. The legislation passed by Congress included $ 600 checks for most Americans, but the then president said the payments should be much larger, up to $ 2,000.
The number was immediately rejected by Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, who refused to consider a bill passed by the House that would approve the larger checks. But according to the poll, 72% of Trump voters agree with the former president that $ 600 checks are not enough.
“The Republican Party needs to determine where the people are currently open to a Conservative party, and they are actually dealing with a number of issues closer to where Trump is than where the party was before Trump,” Olsen said.
These policy differences have raised the question of whether the Republican Party is on the verge of splintering, with one faction adhering to Trumpism and the other focusing on traditional conservative values such as small government and reducing deficits.
‘There’s a healthy debate over, should we just let the Republican Party wither and die on the Trumpism stick and start a new party? “Because this path is unsustainable for the Republican Party,” Setmayer said.
In that sense, the Republican senators’ votes in the indictment may provide some of the first clues as to how the party will navigate this ideological civil war. After all, if Trump is acquitted, he could launch another White House bid in 2024, giving Republicans the opportunity to reappoint the former president.
“There will be a lot to write about this topic over the next four years,” Olsen said. “Accusation will only be the beginning of this story, not nearly the end.”