| Michigan Chance | +1.5 |
| Ohio State Odds | -1.5 |
| Moneyline | +102 / -125 |
| About bottom | 148.5 |
| Time | TV | Sunday, 13:00 ET | CBS |
| Chances from Saturday at 5pm ET and via DraftKings. | |
I grew up in Ann Arbor and spent most of my life watching Wolverines’ basketball. I have never seen a Michigan basketball team as talented as this one.
Unfortunate, and predictable, is to stand between the Wolverines and a Big Ten title, one of the most talented Ohio State teams in recent memory.
As incredible as it may be, I’m not sure Michigan has the offensive firepower to beat the state of Ohio on Sunday afternoon. However, I’m also not sure if the state of Ohio is defensive enough to stay competitive with the Wolverines in the end.
Therefore, the most important game in this game is the offense of Ohio State against Michigan’s defense.
The winner of the battle is too difficult to predict. However, the bet value in this game lies in the total.
The Matchup: Ohio Attack on Michigan’s Defense
Recently, the offense of the state of Ohio and the defense of Michigan have been phenomenal.
In the last five games, for example, Ohio State is leading 3-1-1. Meanwhile, Michigan is down 4-1 in its last five games. The bottom has also hit both of Michigan’s games since returning after a 24-day hiatus due to COVID-19 protocols.
Michigan boasts the best defense in the Big Ten. This leads the conference in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and also places the conference in the least allowed points per game (62.8).
Meanwhile, the state of Ohio is second in the conference in offensive efficiency and 2-point percentage, fourth in 3-point percentage and first in release percentage. Furthermore, the Buckeyes scored the third most points per game in the Big Ten.
Staff-wise, the state of Ohio is running its offense by EJ Liddell and Duane Washington. The combination of the guard achieves a total of 30.4 points per game this season. Liddell adds 6.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game, while Washington distributes three assistants per game.
In an era where small balls are dominant, Juwan Howard’s team is big and long. Michigan’s foreland consists of 6-foot-7 Isaiah Livers, 6-foot-9 Franz Wagner and 7-foot-1 Hunter Dickinson.
If you do not notice it, it works.
Dickinson was a revelation of the attack, and was also incredibly valuable in defending the Wolverines. Over the last two games of Michigan, Dickinson has a total of 23 rebounds and six blocks.
However, Wagner is Michigan’s gomman. Not only does he score an average of 12 points and three assistants in attack, he is a versatile defender who holds his position against every position. Wagner also averaged 6.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Simply put, he does it all.
PB:
Betting analysis and selection
I believe Michigan is the best team in the conference. Regardless of the outcome of this game, Michigan must compete in the Big Ten Championship and a No. 1 NCAA Tournament.
However, Howard is tied 0-2 (US) and against the spread (ATS) against Buckeyes coach Chris Holtmann. On top of that, Michigan may still be recovering from its long hiatus in the game. Therefore, it is not a smart play to take the Wolverines here.
Instead, I like the bottom in this place.
The Ohio State offense was actually worse than underway this season. The Buckeyes are 50th in the country in points per game, but only 92nd in points per game at home.
Meanwhile, Ohio State’s defense fared better at home. It ranks 129th overall in points per game, but 81st in points per game at home. In fact, the Buckeyes allow only 63.6 points per game in Columbus this season.
Alternatively, Michigan’s already stifling defense performs better on the road than at home. Michigan was allowed 51st in points per game, but 37th in points per game on the road.
On top of that, Michigan’s offense is much less effective on the road, and is 47th in points per game this season, but only 115th in away points per game.
All of this helps explain why Michigan is 4-1 down the road, while Ohio State is 6-5 down at home, but 7-2-1 down the road.
The bottom is 6-3 the last nine times these two teams have played. In the Big Ten, 148.5 is a big enough number to go down.
So I think of the tendencies to continue Sunday afternoon in Columbus. I’m going to play the bottom at 146 or higher.
Choose: Below 148.5 (up to 146)