In the days after the January 6 attack on the Capitol, the phone lines and websites of local election officials jumped across the country: Tens of thousands of Republicans called or reported to change their party commitments.
In California, more than 33,000 registered Republicans left the party during the three weeks following the riots in Washington. In Pennsylvania, more than 12,000 voters left the GOP in the past month, and more than 10,000 Republicans changed their registration in Arizona.
An analysis of the New York Times’ voting records in January found that nearly 140,000 Republicans left the party in 25 states that had available data (19 states had no registration per party). Voting experts said the data points to a stronger-than-usual flight from a political party to a presidential election, as well as the possible start of a damaging period for IDP registrations, as voters shy away from Capitol violence and the consequences thereof.
Among those who recently left the party is Juan Nunez, 56, a veteran of the Army in Mechanicsburg, Pa. He said he had long felt that the difference between the United States and many other countries was that the campaign season ended on election day. all sides will accept the result peacefully. The January 6 riot changed that, he said.
“What happened that day in DC broke my heart,” he said. Nunez, a lifelong Republican who is preparing to register as an independent, said. “It shook me to the deepest stage.”
The largest increase in Republicans leaving the party came in the days after January 6, especially in California, where there were 1,020 Republican changes on January 5 – and then 3,243 on January 7. In Arizona, there were 233 Republican changes in the first five days of January, and 3,317 in the following week. Most Republicans in these states and others have switched to a non-affiliate status.
Voter roles often change after presidential elections, when registrations sometimes move to the winner’s party or people update their old commitments to match their current party preferences, often at a motor vehicle department. Other states remove inactive voters, deceased voters or those who have withdrawn from the state from all parties, and crowd the people together with voters who have changed their own registrations. Of the 25 states surveyed by The Times, Nevada, Kansas, Utah and Oklahoma combined such voter list maintenance with registration changes so that their totals would not be limited to changes made by voters themselves. Other states may have done the same, but not indicated in their public data.
Among Democrats, 79,000 have left the party since early January.
But the turmoil at the Capitol, and the historic unpopularity of former President Donald J. Trump, created an intensely fluid period in American politics. Many Republicans denounced the pro-Trump forces that rioted on Jan. 6 and 10 members of the Republican House voted to accuse Trump. A number of Republicans now say they support key elements of President Biden’s stimulus package; usually the opposing party is cautious if not hostile to the key policy priorities of a new president.
‘Since it’s such an extremely unusual activity, it’s probably an indication of a larger undercurrent taking place, where other people also think they no longer feel part of the Republican Party, but they just have’ t contacted election officials to tell them they could change their party registration, ”said Michael P. McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. “So it’s probably an iceberg.”
But, he warned, it could also be that the pronounced “never Trump” reality is just coming into focus, as Republicans have finally taken the step to change their registration, even though they have not supported the president and his party since 2016 not.
Kevin Madden, a former Republican operator who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, fits this trend line, although he has anticipated the recent exodus. He said he changed his registration to independent a year ago, after looking at what he calls the harassment of career officers in the foreign service at Mr. Trump’s first indictment.
“It’s not a birthright and it’s not a religion either,” he said. Madden said about the party affiliation. ‘Political parties need to be more like your local housing association. If the apartment association starts acting in a way that is contrary to your beliefs, you’re moving. ‘
As for the overall trend of Republicans abandoning their party, he said it was too early to say whether it would spell trouble in the long run, but that the numbers could not be ignored. “During all the time I worked in politics,” he said, “what always worried me was not the position, but the trend line.”
Some GOP officials noted that Republicans have recently seen a significant increase in registration, even before the 2020 election, noting that the party has recovered rapidly in the past.
“You never want to lose registrations, and it’s clear that the scene at the Capitol in January has already exacerbated many of the problems Republicans are having with the voter center,” said Josh Holmes, a political adviser to Senator Mitch McConnell. , the minority leader, said. . “Today’s withdrawing support really pales in comparison to the challenges of a decade ago, when Republicans transitioned from absolute irrelevance to a majority in the House within 18 months.”
He added: “If Republicans can come together again behind basic conservative principles and resist the liberal supremacy of the Biden government, things will change much faster than people think.”
In North Carolina, the shift was immediately noticeable. The state experienced a significant upsurge in Republicans that changed their party affiliation: 3,007 in the first week after the riot, 2,850 the following week and 2,120 the week after. An existing about 650 Democrats changed their party affiliation every week.
But GOP government officials have underestimated any interest in the changes and expressed confidence that North Carolina, a battleground state that recently backed Republican, will remain in their column.
“Relatively small fluctuations in voter registration over a short period of time in the pool of more than seven million registered voters in North Carolina are not particularly worrying,” said Tim Wigginton, the state party’s communications director. a statement said, predicting that North Carolina would continue to vote Republican nationwide.
In Arizona, 10,174 Republicans have changed their party registration since the attack as the state party moved further and further to the right, as reflected in its decision to censor three Republicans – Governor Doug Ducey, former Senator Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain – for various acts disloyal to mr. The party continues to raise questions about the 2020 election, and last week Republicans in the State Legislature supported the arrest of Maricopa Provincial election officials for refusing to comply with the major equipment and materials summonses for elections.
It is these actions, according to some Republican strategists in Arizona, that have caused the decline in GOP voter registrations in the state.
“The exodus that is currently taking place, based on my instinct and all the people who are calling me here, is that they are leaving because of the sedition that has taken place and the continued questioning of the Arizona vote,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist in Arizona.
For Heidi Ushinski, 41, the decision to leave the Republican Party in Arizona was easy. After the election, she said she registered as a Democrat because “the Arizona GOP just lost its head” and would not let these fraudulent election things go. ‘
“The IDP used to stand for what our morals, just character and integrity felt,” she added. “I think the outspoken GOP that comes from Arizona has lost it.”
This is the third time that Ms. Ushinski changes her party registration. She usually registers to vote against candidates. This time she did it because she did not feel there was a place for people like her in the ‘new’ Republican Party.
“I’m looking up to the Jeffry Flakes and the Cindy McCains,” she said. ‘Seeing the IDP go after them, specifically when they speak in ways I find appealing, just shows me that there is nothing more in the IDP that I can stand for. And it’s really sad. ”
Mr. Nunez, the veteran of the Pennsylvania Army, said his aversion to the Capitol riots worsened as Republicans in Congress continued to push back on sending stimulus checks, and they strongly opposed raising the minimum wage to Increase $ 15 per hour.
“They were so quick to save companies, and give big companies money, but continue to fight to give money to people in need,” he said. Nunez said, who plans to change party this week. ‘I’m also a business owner and can not imagine living on $ 7 an hour. We must be fair. ”
Although the number of voters leaving the IDP varies from state to state, almost every state surveyed has shown a marked increase. In Colorado, about 4,700 Republican voters changed their registration status in the nine days after the riot. In New Hampshire, about 10,000 left the party’s voter list in the past month, and in Louisiana, about 5,500 did so as well.
Even in states without voter registration per party, some Republicans have left outright.
In Michigan, Mayor Michael Taylor of Sterling Heights, the fourth largest city in the state, was already one foot out the door of the Republican Party before the 2020 election. Even as a lifelong Republican, he could not afford to run for office. Trump to vote for president, after backing him in 2016. He rather told Mr. Bid voted.
After the election, the relentless advancement of conspiracy theories by GOP leaders and the attack on the Capitol drove him completely out of the party.
“There was enough before the election to swear off the IDP, but the incredible events since then have made it clear to me that I do not fit into this party,” he said. Taylor said. “Elections were no longer just complained about. They took over the Capitol at the request of the President of the United States. And if I think there was a clear break with the party, it was this. ‘
Mr. Taylor plans to be eligible for re-election this year, and while it’s a non-partisan race, community members are well aware of the change in his thinking since the last citywide election in 2017.
He already has two challengers, including a die-hard Trump supporter, who have started calling Mr. Criticizing Taylor for his lack of support for the former president.