The US is about to run out of people who want the vaccine

A pharmacist holds a vial of Johnson & Johnson covid-19 vaccine at a hospital in Bay Shore, NY

A pharmacist holds a vial of Johnson & Johnson covid-19 vaccine at a hospital in Bay Shore, NY
Photo: Mark Lennihan (AP)

This week, all 50 states have officially been eligible for covid-19 vaccination for all adult residents. But while millions of Americans are still queuing up to get their dose, experts warn that the country is fast approaching a surplus of vaccines, with too few consumers to reach the available supply. Once that happens, it is still a question of whether the US will distribute its unwanted vaccines to countries they urgently need, or even provide the opportunity to make their own.

Tuesday an analysis of the Kaiser Family Foundation ended that the US will reach a tipping point in the next two to four weeks in enthusiasm for vaccination against covid-19.

Currently, just over 50% of eligible adults have received at least one dose of the vaccine. According to the recent KFF poll at the end of March, about 61% of the adults enrolled. But there remains a steady contingent of Americans – 10% to 15%, based on various polls – who openly say they will never willingly get a vaccine. And even under the best case scenario – where half of the people still believe the vaccine will eventually change plans – it will probably only take 28 days for anyone who wants to get a vaccine, according to the KFF.

The country will probably only meet with President Biden this week stated goal of the administration of 200 million doses within the first 100 days of his presidency. And it is likely that our projected levels of vaccine coverage will still be sufficient to sharply curb the spread of the pandemic and reduce deaths and serious illnesses caused by covid-19, similar to those in countries such as the UK and Israel. happened. But we may not achieve herd immunity – levels of vaccination and natural immunity that will fully protect people who are unable or unwilling to be vaccinated against local outbreaks. Once enthusiasm drying up, the U.S. vaccine supply is also in danger of spilling away, even though most of the world has not yet been vaccinated.

Earlier this month, Vanity Fair report that talks have begun within the Biden government over how the US would donate their future unwanted doses. But these discussions were thwarted as the country continued to experience relatively high levels of new cases and many experts feared that a fourth peak of the pandemic would appear. Since then, while a few states like Michigan have experienced alarming spikes in new cases, the U.S. as a whole has remained on a plight. However, it is not just local problems that have delayed these efforts. Many of the existing contracts with the government’s vaccine manufacturers – negotiated by the Trump administration – would have to be reworked first, as the current language apparently prevents them from giving excess doses to other countries.

The US and other affluent countries, as members of the World Trade Organization, have done the same in the past. obstruct efforts by poorer countries to secure doses by temporarily waiving patents enabling them to manufacture their own vaccines locally at much less cost. And despite that recent pleas by some lawmakers to change the government’s opinion and throw its support behind these waivers ahead of the next WTO general meeting in May, it is not clear whether the US will do so.

All of these setbacks and deliberate decisions could mostly, but not completely, protect the US from the pandemic, while many of the poorest countries in the world would. according to some, mostly remain unprotected until 2024 recent projections.

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