A sign explaining the mask requirements for a shuffleboard business in Tampa, Fla., Dec. 19.
Photo:
Ivy Ceballo / Zuma Press
The new coronavirus is about to take its last major stand, so prepare for the most difficult six weeks yet. But things will look up as spring approaches. Stay safe and try to avoid becoming the last person to get sick from Covid-19.
Next year will still be cautious, but the fear of Covid will not dominate life after winter disappears. The appearance will decrease sharply in spring and summer. The virus can reappear in the fall, but it can be a manageable threat with the right precautions.
That said, changing the pandemic by 2020 will require some changes. The virus is likely to become endemic, meaning it will continue to circulate, but at a much lower level than the epidemic. If we are wise, next fall may look like a particularly virulent flu season in which the vaccines do not match. Most of the activities that Americans enjoy will be resumed, although some will require precautionary measures.
It starts with changes in the way people go to work. It must be rejected to go to sick work and try to “brave” a cold. Tests for flu and Covid will be widespread with home tests. Many people may still prefer to wear masks in public places, but it will not be necessary. We will pay more attention to ventilation inside and crowds in confined spaces.
These steps have benefits that go beyond Covid. It will also slow down the spread of other respiratory infections – including flu, which is a big toll every year. According to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the flu caused more than 40 million symptomatic illnesses and 650,000 hospitalizations in the 2018-19 season. A 2018 study in the journal Vaccine estimates the economic damage, including reduced productivity, at $ 11.2 billion a year. That figure may be conservative; some models say the burden is up to $ 87 billion annually.
The priorities for next year are to distribute vaccines widely, hopefully with all Americans eligible by spring, while still gathering information on safety and benefits. It will also be essential to provide easy access to vaccination – to prepare pharmacies to offer the Covid vaccine as flu shots. If a high percentage of the most vulnerable population is vaccinated, it will sharply reduce the risk of Covid. The benefits will be even greater if vaccines, as hoped, not only reduce the risk of serious symptoms, but also reduce and spread the chance of infection.
The coming year will be an adjustment to a new normal. Society will not return to its 2019 strategy for dealing with respiratory pathogens, but that is not bad. The response to the pandemic has been plagued by a minority who have rejected Covid’s risks and fought measures such as masks. The attitude of defiance must change into a semblance of normal to return in 2021. But with sensible measures, medications and vaccinations, Covid can be a manageable risk.
Dr. Gottlieb is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and was commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, 2017-19. He serves on the boards of Pfizer and Illumina and is a partner at venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates.
Wonderland: Leading epidemiologists have teamed up to write ‘The Great Barrington Declaration’, which calls for a ‘Focused Protection’ strategy in coronavirus management, and has been signed by thousands of scientists. Images: Getty Composite: Mark Kelly
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In the print edition of 28 December 2020, ‘Covid Is Beginning Its Last Stand’ appears.