LOS ANGELES – The campaign to recall the Government of California Gavin Newsom is already showing signs of a circus like the one that led to the fall of Gray Davis in 2003.
Axios reported on Tuesday that Caitlyn Jenner, the former reality star and Olympic and stepparent of the even more famous Kardashian family, is considering entering the governor’s race if a recall petition is eligible for the vote. NBC News has not verified whether Jenner intends to present, and she has not announced a decision.
Jenner may be the first of what many strategists believe will be a long line of celebrity and novelty candidates who can thoroughly reflect those who ran in 2003, when adult film star Mary Carey, former actor Gary Coleman and the Hustler publisher Larry Flynt added their names. to the list of more than 100 prospective governors. Action film hero Arnold Schwarzenegger eventually won the election.
Almost 20 years later, the comparisons stop there.
None of the three Republican contenders who intend to announce have a stately name recognition similar to Schwarzenegger’s. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who is considered the likely forerunner, is not known outside of Southern California. Businessman John Cox lost by double figures to Newsom in 2018, and Doug Ose, a former member of Congress, briefly ran for governor in 2018 before leaving the race.
“The biggest thing Newsom needs to do is stop a Democrat from getting started,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist and former Schwarzenegger spokesman. “So far, so good, but it’s easy too. We’ll wait a few more months.”
Memorial organizers say they have collected more than 2 million signatures, well above the 1.5 million needed to reach the state threshold. Provinces have until the end of the month to verify signatures and report their scores to state election officials. The finance department will take about 30 days to compile a cost estimate for the election before a legislative panel reviews the findings. Only then would an election date be set.
If a revocation is eligible for the ballot, voters will be asked two questions: the first is whether they want to revoke Newsom, and the second is who should replace him. There is no limit to how many people can participate, and whoever gets the most votes wins.
Since Davis was recalled in 2003, California’s political landscape has increasingly shifted to the left. According to the Secretary of State’s office, registered Republican voters in February 2003 were 35 percent of the electorate, up from 24 percent this year.
In contrast, 44 percent were registered as Democrats in 2003, and this year it is 46 percent. In 2003, 15 percent did not want to say in which party they were; this year, 24 percent of voters registered under ‘no party preference’.
“Politically, we are a very different state than in 2003,” Democratic strategist Katie Merrill said Wednesday during a Facebook Live panel hosted by the Sacramento Press Club. “If you look at the races across the country, the Republican Party has become a third party in California.”
Democratic strategist Ace Smith told the panel: “It’s a different time. We are in a state where there were honestly Republicans who used to be somewhat moderate. Trump’s Republican Party lost [its] manner. “
The shadow of former President Donald Trump, who has been repeatedly called a kind of political bowman, is another notable difference between the recall attempt against Newsom and the campaign against Davis.
Since trying to oust Newsom, Democrats in California have been working together on the idea that the campaign is a power attack by Trump loyalists bitter over the loss of the White House to President Joe Biden.
Last month, Dan Newman, a campaign adviser to Newsom, said the recall campaign was ‘purely partisan politics’, while Newsom said white supremacists and right-wing military groups, including the Proud Boys, were among the recallers.
“We are only concerned about the fact that violence is moving into the future as we move further and further away from the January uprising and make us insecure. We need to remain vigilant about these groups and how serious they are,” Newsom said last month. MSNBC said. . “All you need is about a quarter of the people who supported Trump just to sign a petition, and it turns out they did.”
In 2003, Davis did not have such a ghost to distract attention. He was already embroiled in various crises when he won a second term in 2002, after being heavily criticized for reacting too slowly to an energy crisis that knocked out power for more than a million residents in 2000 and 200. He apologized, but the debacle claimed his reputation.
Davis won re-election in 2002 with 47 percent of the vote. In 2003, only 27 percent of California voters approved of his job, the Los Angeles Times reported at the time. The option to recall Davis received 55 percent of the vote.
In contrast, 40 percent of respondents said they would recall Newsom, 79 percent of whom were identified as Republicans, according to a survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, a non-partisan research organization. Newsom’s approval rate is also higher than Davis’s, with 53 percent among likely voters last month, compared with 42 percent who said they did not approve of his job performance.
“If no other Democrat participates in the race and it stays that way – the economy recovers, the coronavirus doesn’t rise again and all that looks good – then he’s not going to be nearly as unpopular as Davis was,” Stutzman said.
Unlike Davis, whose administration has been hampered by a $ 38 billion budget deficit, Newsom boasts a one-time surplus of $ 15 billion at the beginning of the year, according to its budget proposal for 2021-22. During the pandemic, wealthy Californians earned $ 185 billion in capital gains, or money from the sale of assets, which led to $ 18.5 billion in tax revenue for the state, reports The Associated Press. Because of the surplus, Newsom’s plan would spend $ 25 billion more than last year.
But record levels of homelessness and unemployment have plagued California throughout the pandemic, with experts warning that this summer could bring another catastrophic round of fires up and down the state.
As residents are fighting crises in several areas, supporters say it is too soon to celebrate the victory.
“What a breach,” said Anne Dunsmore, recalling the fundraiser. ‘You have people living on the street and being flooded from their tents, and we’re going to brag about a surplus? Go spend it. ‘