-
Scientists are concerned that vaccinations are not progressing fast enough to prevent the emergence of new, perhaps more deadly coronavirus strains.
-
New variants that can evade existing vaccines could create a cycle in which people continue to get new coronavirus shots for years.
-
British officials said on Friday that the variant identified there may have a higher mortality rate than the original, although the evidence is “uncertain”.
-
Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
The global effects of vaccines are counter-clockwise: new, more contagious variants of the coronavirus are spreading worldwide, and it is unclear how well existing vaccines work against these strains.
For now, vaccines seem effective against the strain identified in the UK in December, B117. But preliminary research suggests that vaccines may be less effective against B1351, the strain identified in South Africa.
“This is all the more reason why we should vaccinate as many people as possible,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Thursday. “Viruses do not mutate unless they repeat, and if you can suppress them through a very good vaccination campaign, you can avoid this harmful effect of the mutations.”
But the process of getting shots in the arms is starting slowly in many countries. The US has administered more coronavirus vaccines than any other country, but they have given only about 19 million doses as of Friday.
Scientists are concerned that the current rate of vaccinations may allow time for too many new strains. This could lead to a scenario in which scientists have to update vaccines regularly.
Michael Worobey, a viral evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona, recently told the BBC that the emergence of new coronavirus strains could be a glimpse into the future where we will be using this virus in an arms race with flu. ‘
It is also possible that a more deadly strain will emerge before most people are vaccinated. In that case, coronavirus shots may be needed regularly for youngsters, similar to polio or measles vaccines.
The coronavirus may eventually look like a cold
The future of the coronavirus depends a lot on our ability to control the transmission quickly. The more people develop immunity – whether through natural infections or vaccinations – the faster the virus will reach an endemic state, which means that it will constantly circulate but will no longer reach pandemic peaks.
In a recent study, researchers from Emory University and Pennsylvania State University suggested that the coronavirus could eventually look like a cold that infects people during childhood.
According to the most likely scenario of the study, children would get their first COVID-19 infection, on average between the ages of 3 and 5. Almost every child would become infected by the age of 15 years. children in advance. Babies may also have some degree of immunity at birth.
“For the first six months or so of life, or maybe longer than you nurse, children have antibodies from their mother, both from the umbilical cord and from breast milk, so there is some time in the first year of life when children not going to get a primary infection, “Jennie Lavine, lead author of the study, told Insider.
The researchers estimate that re-infections will be even milder – and even increase immunity to related coronavirus strains.
If the vaccinations are rapid, the New York Times reports, the virus can reach this endemic condition in just six months to a year. Fauci recently estimated that life in the fall could return to normal if 70% to 85% of Americans were vaccinated by the end of the summer.
But based on observed patterns of other human coronaviruses, the researchers’ model suggested that the new coronavirus would probably become endemic within five to ten years. Without rapid vaccinations, in other words, outbreaks can last for some time.
Updating vaccines for new variants
Vaccinations cause the production of virus-specific antibodies, so that if people are exposed to the virus after being vaccinated, the same antibodies will recognize and destroy the virus before it has a chance to repeat itself widely.
In an ideal scenario, coronavirus vaccines would protect against all strains of the virus for a number of years.
But scientists are concerned that new coronavirus variants may be different from the original ones in that they may elude the antibodies developed in response to vaccines. If that happens, scientists will have to constantly adjust the genetic instructions of vaccines to overcome new strains. The process is not necessarily difficult, but it does mean that people need follow-up surveys.
“If we ever have to change the vaccine, it’s not a very burdensome thing,” Fauci said Thursday. “We can do that, given the platforms we have.”
But a scenario in which new strains require people to be vaccinated regularly – as is already the case with flu shots – is becoming increasingly likely the longer it takes to get the current shots in the arms.
However, it is also possible that other low immunity may protect people from emerging strains. White blood cells, known as T cells, and B cells also remember foreign invaders, often longer than antibodies. A recent study suggested that patients with recovered coronavirus had at least eight months of robust T-cell and B-cell immunity. A study of SARS, caused by a genetically similar coronavirus, showed that patients who recovered had T-cell immunity 17 years after their infection.
A deadlier strain could make coronavirus shots routine
By vaccinating people quickly, public health officials hope to avoid the worst-case scenario: the emergence of a more deadly coronavirus strain.
“Things we should keep looking for may prevent it from becoming a very mild, endemic thing that should not be vaccinated, if the virus somehow changes so that infections get worse in childhood,” Lavine said. said.
In that case, she added, all young people would have to take shots before contracting their first coronavirus infection.
There is already evidence that the British coronavirus strain may be more lethal than the original. British scientific chief adviser Patrick Vallance said on Friday that the new variant could have up to 30% higher mortality rates among some age groups, although the evidence remains “uncertain”.
The good news, though, is that existing coronavirus shots seem to work against it.
“From what we have seen so far, the variants described do not alter the ability to neutralize antibodies elicited by vaccination to neutralize the virus,” Tal Zaks, chief medical officer of Moderna, told the JP earlier this month. Morgan Healthcare Conference said.
But it makes the task of vaccinating people even more urgent.
“Everyone is likely to get infected at some point,” Lavine said. “Let’s make it after the vaccination so you do not get really sick.”
Read the original article on Business Insider