The race between variants and vaccines is increasing, with the discovery of more alarming coronavirus variations in California, even as vaccinations are increased and many counties in the Bay Area ease the restrictions on public health.
Public health authorities on Wednesday confirmed the first case in California of a variant called P.1 that wreaked havoc in Brazil; it was found in a San Bernardino County resident. They also announced a fourth case in California of a South African variant, this one in Santa Clara County. The case was in an individual who had recently traveled nowhere, and expressed concern that the variant was spreading in the community, albeit at very low levels.
These two variants are somewhat resistant to antibodies and may make vaccines less effective. Meanwhile, three more variants that are more contagious than earlier versions of the virus are spreading rapidly across the state – two homemade variants now account for more than half of all cases in California.
The increase in variants is worrying, but not unexpected. In fact, the variants take a slower position than experts in public health and infectious diseases have feared, raising hopes that vaccinations will keep them going. A fourth surge may not be entirely preventable, but it seems increasingly likely that it will not be nearly as devastating as earlier waves.
In other words, California and the Bay Area may continue in the race.
‘This is not the time to let go of the accelerator. We must continue to increase the pressure on vaccinations, ”said Joe DeRisi, co-president of the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, which conducts genomic sequencing for public and public health agencies. ‘But I’m still very optimistic. We’re heading in the right direction. ”
Variants have been the biggest increases in the last few weeks around the world, especially in parts of Europe, including the United Kingdom, and in Brazil. The more contagious variant from the UK, called B.1.1.7, is the most common culprit.
The global situation has made public health experts in the United States worried about a possible fourth wave here, and indeed, in some parts of the country, things are starting to flatten and even type. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that B.1.1.7 could dominate parts of the country by the end of this month or early April.
But California is doing better than most other places. Although variants appear with a greater frequency, they are not as widespread as experts have now feared. The B.1.1.7 variant accounts for only about 1% of the cases followed up in the state.
Cases of Coronavirus across the country are declining week over week, but not quite as dramatically as earlier in the month. Hospitalizations and daily cases are back to October. Deaths also fall. The winter push is over.
Provinces reopened with a fairly quick cut. Only 10% of the state remains in the most restrictive press level. Next week, three Bay Area provinces – Marin, San Francisco and Santa Clara – are likely to join San Mateo County in the orange level, the second least restrictive. This will enable them to expand indoor eateries and open-air pubs, music venues and family entertainment establishments such as bowling alleys.
Most counties plan to allow the full range of activities by state, although San Francisco authorities say they will take a somewhat more conservative approach. At a committee meeting of the Board of Supervisors, dr. Sara Cody, the Santa Clara County health official, said Tuesday that she would open all state-approved activities, but advised residents to remain cautious.
“Just because something’s open does not mean it’s safe or necessarily a good idea,” Cody said. ‘We are still in a race between the emergence of the new variant and our ability to vaccinate. We have to be quite careful with all the other things we do – to put on masks, remove them and not get together in the crowd. ‘
Santa Clara County has identified more cases due to coronavirus variants than anywhere else in the Bay, but it also does much more genomic sequencing than its neighbors. The province found 15 cases of B.1.1.7 and two of the state’s four cases of the variant from South Africa.
All of these variants are important in part because they have mutations that make them more contagious than the previous version of the virus. The British variant is thought to be up to 80% more contagious, and can also cause serious illness. The California variants, by comparison, can be about 10% to 20% more contagious.
Dr Chris Farnitano, the Contra Costa province health official, said reports of cases in New York, as well as congestion in parts of Europe, were concerned about reopening, especially as more variants appeared. His country discovered its first two cases of the B.1.1.7 variant this week.
“A month ago, they opened indoor eateries in New York, and since then things have not been coming down,” he said. ‘We know every time we opened up in the past, we had another wave. The only thing that is different now is the vaccine. And as the city of New York shows, they have not yet received enough vaccine to drive things away. There is still a risk that if we open up too fast and really take up this variant, we could lose the race. ”
Sill, experts in infectious diseases and public health said there are signs that enough people have already been vaccinated in California to do business and, in particular, hospitalizations and deaths. About 23% of Californians have received at least one dose of vaccine. Especially cases in cases of nursing homes dropped, which was frequent in the pandemic fatal outbreaks.
It is possible, experts say, that California may see a fourth boom – but that it will not be nearly as devastating because the vaccines prevent the worst results.
‘I am informed of every death in the country. And last week was the first week I can remember since last spring, where no deaths were reported. Seven days in a row, ”said Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County Health Officer. “It could be another sign of what the new normal looks like.”
Erin Allday is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @erinallday