RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) – The call for elections by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has jeopardized his political future, forcing him to compete with competing demands to enter into talks with a friendlier US government, to repair the rift with its militant Hamas rivals and keep its illegal Fatah movement from breaking apart.
The presidential order issued last month, asking what would be the first Palestinian election in 15 years, stemmed from negotiations launched with Hamas last year to fight the ranks in the face of unprecedented crises.
The Trump administration ended all aid and proposed a Middle East plan that overwhelmingly benefited Israel and allowed it to annex parts of the occupied West Bank. A normalization agreement between the United States and Israel between the United Arab Emirates last summer thwarted annexation, but the Palestinians were increasingly left isolated in the region.
Abbas therefore negotiated with Hamas, the Islamic militant group that seized Gaza from its forces in 2007. These discussions culminated in the presidential resolution calling for legislative elections on May 22 and presidential elections on July 31.
It is far from clear that the election will actually be held. To do so will require an agreement between Abbas’ secular Fatah movement and Hamas, which, despite multiple attempts at reconciliation, has been bitterly divided for more than a decade. The two parties plan to meet in Cairo this week.
The outcome of the talks will largely depend on the 85-year-old Abbas. He spent decades forcibly seeking a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, areas occupied by Israel during the 1967 war. Instead, he ruled an increasingly autocratic and unpopular Palestinian Authority confined to parts of the occupied West Bank.
Reconciling with Hamas and holding elections could undermine its legitimacy and meet Western demands for accountability. But even a limited victory by Hamas, which is considered a terrorist group by Israel and Western countries, could lead to international isolation and the loss of essential aid – just as after Hamas won the last parliamentary elections in 2006.
In an information session with Palestinian journalists, EU Representative Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff welcomed the call for elections, but he did not reject repeated requests to explain how the EU would react to a Hamas victory.
“Are you putting the wagon in front of the horse?” he said. “Why don’t we start with the horse?”
President Joe Biden has restored Palestinian aid and vowed to take a more proportionate approach, but the Middle East conflict is likely to take a far-reaching backseat to more pressing crises such as the coronavirus pandemic, and the US is unlikely to Hamas includes. Even a Hamas-backed government of independents could pose problems for Western donors.
Elections could also cause the disintegration of Abbas’ Fatah party. He has yet to care for a successor, and could face a leadership challenge from Marwan Barghouti, a popular Fatah leader who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison for his role in the 2000 intifada, or uprising.
“For Barghouti, the presidential candidate is his only way out of prison, or at least that’s what he thinks,” said Ali Jarbawi, a professor of political science at Birzeit University in the West Bank.
Abbas may also face Mohammed Dahlan, a rival of Fatah, who was convicted in absentia of corruption charges by a Palestinian court after he was ousted by Abbas. Dahlan has a base of support in his native Gaza and powerful allies in the United Arab Emirates, where he lives in exile.
“So far, all the talk is about one (Fatah) list, but it is not unlikely that there will be two or even three lists,” said Jehad Harb, a Palestinian political analyst. “Or Barghouti may be waiting for the presidential election.”
Hamas faces its own election challenges, where voters can hold them accountable for the economic devastation in Gaza, which has endured three wars with Israel and a crippling Israeli-Egyptian blockade since the militant group took power.
One idea to make the rounds is to compile a joint list of Fatah and Hamas, but this will largely determine the outcome of the parliamentary election before any votes are cast, raising questions about its legitimacy.
Yara Hawari, senior analyst at Al-Shabaka, an international Palestinian think tank, says that in any case, if the election continues, there will be a ‘shaped outcome’ that will enable Fatah and Hamas to maintain the status quo.
Both Palestinian authorities suppressed disagreement through torture and arbitrary arrests in the areas under their control, and Israel regularly detains Palestinian activists and strikes protests and boycott movements.
“It has already been brought to light,” Hawari said. “If you have a society that is completely suffocated politically, it is often punished for political opposition – it is already uncomfortable.”
The unresolved issues between Fatah and Hamas could also be used as an excuse to cancel or postpone the election.
The two parties have yet to agree on a court to resolve electoral disputes and a mechanism for securing polling stations in Gaza, where Palestinian security forces have not had a presence since Hamas took power. The Palestinian Authority has also demanded that Israel allow Palestinians in the annexed eastern Jerusalem to run in the election.
Khalil Shikaki, the director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Investigation, said Abbas could cancel or postpone the election and blame Israel or Hamas.
“However, if Israel does not give him the pretext and Hamas does not give him the pretext, his hand will be forced and he will have to go to the polls,” he said.
Abbas, whose presidential term expired in 2009, is already facing a crisis of legitimacy, and Western donors could reconsider their support if the election is scrapped. Abbas could also face a setback from the Palestinian public.
“The process has its own dynamics, and although Abbas controls it, I think his calculation will have to adjust to what options he will have left, if he unilaterally decides to cancel the election,” Shikaki said. “There will be significant disagreement in Fatah on this.”