The number of newborns registered in China is falling by 15% amid fears of the population

The number of newborns registered in China is falling by 15% amid fears of the population

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Demographic issues in China could pose serious problems for the world’s second largest economy when the current population retires in working age. Experts are concerned that if the trend continues, or the population starts to shrink, China could grow old before it becomes rich.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 250 million people over the age of 60 in China last year, about 18% of the population.

Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor of social sciences and public policy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said that although there is likely to be a decline in births in most countries by 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, the statistics from China are in line with a general downward trend.

“The impact of Covid has probably exaggerated it, and in the coming years the declines are not likely to be that severe, but the downward structural trend is likely to continue,” he said. “The number of new babies born will never be so high in the future because the number of pregnant women is declining and will decrease rapidly (in the coming years).”

While China’s demographic shift is still nothing compared to some of its older age neighbors – such as Japan and South Korea, both of which’s populations are now shrinking, it still poses future problems, especially as the “one child” generation ages.
In operation from 1979 to 2015, the ‘one child policy’ restricted most couples in China to a single baby, as part of an effort to control a rapidly growing population while the country was still developing. Draconian application of the rule has hit couples with heavy fines or penalties, while millions of women are forced to have abortions if they are found to be carrying a second child.
As a result of the policy, China’s fertility rate dropped dramatically, from a peak of nearly six births per woman between 1960 and 1965 to 1.5 between 1995 and 2014. At the same time, the number of people over 65 increased by 3.36%. in 1965 to almost 10% in 2015, when the one-child policy was switched to allow two children. In 2019, people over the age of 65 made up 12.6% of the total population
Since 2016, couples have been allowed to have two children, but it seems too late to reverse the decline, and parents have increased in most developed countries to have fewer children. The next national census, the count of which began in November, is expected to decline for the first time in decades and could mean that India surpasses China as the most populous country.
By 2050, a third of the population, about 480 million people, over 60, is expected to be with much younger workers from single-parent families supporting their parents and two grandparents, in a country where social services for the elderly are still available. missing. Uncertainty about the official figures from the government could also mean that the situation is worse than it currently appears.

China’s leaders are well aware of the potential toll that an aging population could take, which is hampering the country’s economy, just as it is about to become the world’s largest, and has sought to to encourage having children – after decades of those who have been punished done.

In 2018, People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party, led a full editorial entitled “Giving birth is a family matter and also a national matter”, warning that “the impact of low birth rates on the economy and society ‘began to show. ‘
Women, who bear the brunt of the one-child policy, are also coming under fire in the new pressure to have more children. After decades of encouraging women to join the workforce, the pressure to marry and give birth is increasing, although many millennial women are deviating completely from the idea of ​​marriage.

Between 2013 and 2019, the number of people marrying in China for the first time fell by 41%, from 23.8 million to 13.9 million. While the decline is driven in part by demographics – the policy for one child means that there are simply fewer people to marry – there is also a shift in attitudes towards marriage, especially among young women, some of whom become disillusioned with the institution for its role in entrenching gender inequality, experts say.

“With increased education, women have gained economic independence, so marriage is no longer a necessity for women as it was in the past,” said Wei-Jun Jean Yeung, a sociologist at the National University of Singapore. Have studied Asian societies. , told CNN last year. “Women now want to pursue self-development and a career before getting married.”

Chinese millennials do not marry, and the government is worried

But gender norms and patriarchal traditions have not caught up with these changes. In China, many men and parents-in-law still expect women to perform most childcare and household chores after marriage, even if they have full-time jobs.

“Putting up a poster to say we have two children is a wonderful thing, it’s not enough,” said Gietel-Basten, the HKUST demographer, pointing to the economic hit that women still suffer due to children. “There just isn’t the social policy support to compensate for the negative impact.”

As the trend became apparent, coupled with declining birth rates, the Chinese government increased the pressure on young people, especially young women, to marry and settle down. In 2007, the state-sponsored All-China Women’s Federation created “Remaining Women” to describe unmarried people over the age of 27, a term that has since been adopted by the Ministry of Education and widely used in state media to refer to women who leave or avoid marriage. completely.

The government has also made it harder to end existing marriages, with China’s national legislature instituting a ‘cooling-off period’ of 30 days last year for people filing for divorce. There has been widespread criticism of this, especially amid growing screams about domestic violence in China.

Gietel-Basten said the pressure on a shrinking population of women to have more children was unlikely to have much effect, especially as childlessness, currently rare in China, could be expected to rise to levels elsewhere. seen in the region. Instead, the government, as some of its neighbors have begun to do, must prepare for an aging society to compensate for potential consequences.

“Yes, the population is getting older, and in the future the population will decline. What you need to do is say how we can make the most of the people we have,” he added. “You can do this by increasing productivity, by making changes in education, reforms to the pension system, the health care system, by investing now to mitigate bigger problems in the future.”

CNN’s Joshua Berlinger and Nectar Gan reported.

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