In normal times, the Super Bowl is one of the leading social events in the country – bringing together enthusiasts as well as non-fans for hours of football-inspired festivities.
But in the era of COVID-19, officials and experts say Sunday’s game poses a huge risk, and that widespread large-scale surveillance could hamper California’s dangerous emergence from the worst wave of the pandemic.
‘Do not stumble upon this. We are almost there, ”said dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of health and human services, said in California. “Let’s keep our wait a little longer.”
The warning against Super Bowl parties is as much about avoiding the mistakes of the past as it is about stopping the future disaster. A major warning sign is the emergence of the more contagious and potentially deadly strain of coronavirus first identified in Britain, B.1.1.7, with significant growth in San Diego County, which is likely to lead to one death. led there and who is represented. nearly a quarter of the known cases nationwide.
San Diego County on Wednesday reported at least 137 confirmed cases of the B.1.1.7 variant and 50 probable cases. As of Thursday, at least 611 confirmed cases of the variant have been reported nationwide.
The British variant is thought to be 50-70% more transmissible than the common variety of the circulating coronavirus. Simulations presented by a UC San Diego scientist to government officials warn that, even with a decent vaccination strategy, average new daily cases of coronavirus in San Diego County within two months can be twice as bad as the peak during the fall. and winter push, overwhelming hospital capacity there, as residents again reject public health guidelines to wear masks and avoid gatherings like late last year.
In addition to San Diego County, the British tribe has also been identified in Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Alameda and San Mateo, including two students at UC Berkeley who recently came to the United States from abroad.
“If we make uncertain and end up with a large number of people in our house, not masked, shouting at our teams, we can see a potential reversal of the downward trend and end up with a new boom,” he said. Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, medical epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.
California’s fall and winter boom has faded in part as more people have complied with home rules and there have been no major holidays like Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and New Year recently.
“However, the Super Bowl could be an opportunity to mix again,” Kim-Farley said. And so we need to make sure we get a message: this Super Bowl is not the time to have a big party. Wait until next year. ”
While many factors fueled the catastrophic boom that hit the state in late October, officials said they believed people rallied to follow and celebrate the Dodgers and Lakers championships, fueled the viral wildfire – especially in Southern California, hammered by an avalanche of new COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and eventual deaths.
The NBA Finals began on September 30 and the World Series ended on October 27, giving the Lakers their first championship in a decade, and the Dodgers their first World Series title since 1988. The San Diego Padres have the national season. made for the first time since 2006, people gathered in homes and restaurants to cheer on their teams.
Days after the Dodgers knocked the Padres out of the post-season on October 8, there were already warning signs that a boom was possible. “We’re here to sound the alarm,” said San Diego County Health Officer Dr. Wilma Wooten, said on October 16th.
In LA County, the average daily number of reported cases – recorded by the onset of illness or first positive tests – exceeded 1,100 per day for the first time since the end of August on October 12, when California began reopening after the summer boom.
‘You can only drive Sunset off [Boulevard], and you only see all these restaurants that have set up their TVs outside and there are dozens and dozens of people eating and drinking … no masks, cheering, shouting, gathering, celebrating each other, ”said LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said. “We watched it all and realized in our minds that it really contributes to what we see.”
The highly contagious coronavirus spread by respiratory particles that are emitted when people talk and breathe, and shouting and cheering – especially indoors but also at risk in the outdoor environment – increases the risk of transmission.
Such gatherings, along with those held during Halloween and Thanksgiving, were “the beginning of a boom that led to many deaths in California, a very difficult and dark period,” Ghaly said this week. Since October 15, more than 26,000 Californian COVID-19 deaths have been reported, more than 60% of California’s cumulative COVID-19 death toll of more than 43,000.
California was forced to implement another round of home orders and business closures that officials admit bluntly blunt the severity of the latest boom and that state hospitals are not so overwhelmed that doctors would be forced to ration hospital care.
Just as badly as California had its most recent boom, neighboring Arizona – which has no static mask sequence and kept indoor restaurants and bars open – suffered a much higher death rate per capita. If California had the Arizona mortality rate, California would have a cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate of nearly 78,000.
The Super Bowl is usually the most popular television broadcast of the year, and tens of millions of people usually go to private parties or pack in crowded restaurants and bars to watch.
The director of the American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, dr. Rochelle Walensky, urged Americans to watch the game between Kansas City and Tampa Bay with people “only virtually or with the people you live with.” For those who still want to meet, the CDC has suggested hosting an outdoor party and watching the game on a projector screen, where people from different households can sit six feet or more apart.
LA County allows small private events, but should be held outside, with no more than three households and 15 people attending, and requires physical distance and mask use if they are not actively eating or drinking.
The warnings from health officials are the result of the recent reopening of outdoor restaurants, which were closed for weeks in much of California while the coronavirus struck in the winter.
That ban was lifted last month after the state revoked the local home orders that existed in Southern California, the Bay and San Joaquin Valley.
While undoubtedly a boon to struggling businesses, the reopening is still a source of heartburn in some corners – especially LA County, where health officials have long warned that, without proper precautions, dining areas can be covered outside the table for enhanced coronavirus transmission. , an argument disputed by many in the restaurant industry.
To combat the risk of virus transmission in outdoor restaurants, LA County officials have placed a new order for outdoor dining areas that should “turn off televisions or other screens that broadcast programs until further notice.” Ventura County also recommends that businesses turn off their TVs over the weekend, but reads a statement.
The epidemiologist from UC San Francisco, Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, said it was reasonable for health officials in the LA province to issue such an order.
‘If I were in public health, and I wanted to find out how I could protect the public, I would want to share that with people you do not know, wearing masks, shouting and cheering for football matches is inherently a riskier one. activity; and that the dining room outside, insofar as it is encouraged to keep TVs on, will also be a risky set of activities, ”said Bibbins-Domingo. “I think it’s absolutely appropriate, given what we know about how the virus is transmitted, what we know about human behavior, especially around sporting events.”
Times authors Jaweed Kaleem and Ryan Menezes contributed to this report.