(CNN) – The million-dollar donation sample will be donated in less than one month, which will be presented directly to Congress — and the Democratic leaders — to approve the US $ 1.9 billion economic estimate project.
The next four semesters will try to unite the Democrats and demand that the Progressives and Moderates of the party agree on their clear philosophical differences regarding the need for recovery at this time. Also, consolidate a reality for President Joe Biden: his first impetus in Congress, the economic stimulus package, will not be bipartisan. In the meantime, a process is underway that will allow the Democrats to approve this bill in the Senate with only 51 votes.
The conclusion: This week’s Congress, during the silent session to reunite the initial offer of the Democrats on the alivio frente al covid-19 will continue this week, while the Chamber of Deputies is on the receiving end of US $ 1 , 9 bilones la proxima semana.
In the next few days, the Committee of Presidents of the Chamber of Representatives will elaborate the project of the final economic estimate based on the sections approved by the Commission last week. It is ensured that the democrats are in conditions to follow the support of the bank and approve the project of the next week.
The intermediate obstacles
The President of the Chamber of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has a margin of fifty votes in her bill. The current situation is not the same as in the 2020 forecast, when the economy was stagnant and the incubator of the virus was paralyzing the countries that lawmakers are working on in order to approve the most large-scale project. of history with unity.
The escalation of this package is even more intense, including for some Democrats. It does not mean that some Republicans in vain will cross the party line and vote in favor, as it will give Pelosi more space to advance the legislation in the plenary, so watch the comments of the members during the next days, meanwhile case during the recess, to hold a trail of haste that is going to be an aristocratic race for the President of the Chamber.
The problem of Senado
In the last few weeks, Democrats in the Chamber of Deputies have not worked hard to transform Biden’s proposal into a legislative text. The Democratic Assistants from the Senate of the Finance Committee were consulted by the Mediation and Arbitration Panel of the Chamber of Representatives. The Committee on Health, Education, Work and Pensions of the Senate (HELP, by its seal in English) has been working with the Education and Work panel of the Chamber of Representatives. The assistants have been in direct contact and the Democratic senators have clearly stated, as well as the need for private comments with the public, which are needed in the Chamber of Deputies’ bill to be viable for its staff.
Aun así, the Democrats of the Chamber and the Senate are not in full unity at the moment. There is an expectation that there will be changes in the project of the Chamber of Representatives in the Senate, but there will be no formal revision of a commission such as the previous week in the Chamber. In addition, the Democrats’ current plan is to carry out their project — with some potential changes that have taken place in private form — directly in the Senate plenary. It will be successful in the week of March 2. The Democrats in the Senate will hold two seminars to approve the project of the antitheses that will present the subsidies by example. Yes, if a project of a different economic estimate differs from the Chamber of Representatives, the Chamber will approve new ones by March 14th.
For those who are interested in the case from home, it means 27 days — less than one month — to resolve this.
What are the internal debates about the economic estimate?
At the same time, Senate Democrats are seeking to resolve a series of internal debates on the scope of this bill. This includes, for example, all costs are US $ 1.9 billion and are available to increase the minimum wage to US $ 15 per hour. También are satisfied with the limits of the Cámara to the checks of estimate that otorgan to the persons who ganan US $ 75.000 and the pairs that ganan US $ 100,000 the US $ 1,400 completes and gradually reduce the amount of the check for the stadiums with mayors ingresos.
The Democrats, in large part, have discussed these issues privately and it is likely that the Mayor’s will vote in favor of what is being read in plenary, given the expectations that exist that the additional financial benefits will be a popular medium. A Democrat senator told CNN last week: “Mira, I’ve been voting in favor of this one just now.” However, the next three weeks may lead to the democratic unity being tested in a way that we have not seen for a long time.
The gap between the minimum wage
When Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent, stepped in to become the Democrat’s Principal Commissioner of the Senate Commission, he led the desperate hope that Democrats would control a 50-50 Senate that the Democrats won. what you have to do to legislate is potentially in conflict.
The encounters of the 5th of January will bring a wave to the dynamics of Senado. And Sanders’ papel in the commission, now as president, has inevitably pushed the Senate Democrat group more than any other on key issues. His staff has been amplified to include Senado veterans who specialize in navigating the arcade rules of that chamber as well as the conciliation. Súmale is the leader of the Senate Mayor, Chuck Schumer, in the New York State election, which is close to the conscientious objectors (including an integral energy of the Chamber with a history of derrocar a moderbros del liderazgo) y bueno, la dynamics de quien tien el poder en est negotiaciones se ve muy diferente a la de hace dos anos.
At the moment, nothing is clearing up more dynamically than the gap between the minimum wage and the new package of economic estimates.
Read objections
People to keep in mind: Senator Kyrsten Sinema has made it clear that it will not vote on a Senate covity-19 project that includes a minimum wage of US $ 15 per hour.
“Kyrsten is working to ensure that an immediate aid project is enforced in addressing Arizona’s immediate needs and creates all proposals that are not related to those immediate needs – such as the reduction in one’s salary, CNN reported last week.
Sin Sinema, the Senate can not approve the project of economic estimate included including the appeal process that allows it to be approved with only 51 votes. Schumer now has margins of error. And the Cinema will be able to put up with all the legislation. Does not mention that it is not the only one that has expressed private concerns about an increase in the minimum wage in this proposal. Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from Virginia Occidental, also opposes including this point. It was not clear if he was in trouble on his vote.
What happens if the package is sent?
Although Schumer has repeatedly said that he is working closely with Sanders in order to advance, other members of the Democratic leadership are more sobriety with respect to dynamics.
When the question arises as to what is required to include the minimum wage in the project, the mayor of Dick Durbin, a Democrat from Illinois, said to the periodicals last week: “There is no need to listen to serious questions. for some Democrats who want to be resolute ».
In other words, at the moment the theme of increasing the minimum wage can be severely punished by this proposal in front of covid-19. If it included, pierden at least a moderate senator. If lo dejan fuera, se arriesgan a perder progresistas.
A positive balance in the minimum wage in the economic estimate
It is very possible that the topic of raising the minimum wage will not increase the standing required by the Senate Parliament. This will allow Democrats to endure the pain of losing their decision.
In order to advance a project using the conciliation, the Senate Parliament revises any provision with the staff to ensure that it complies with a set of specific criteria. One of these criteria is that it should not have an incidental impact on the defendant. In other words, the proposal could not be done otherwise and it would result in a prescriptive impact. If only you should be in the project of your if it is proposed to affect the proposal. During the debate over derogation and replacement of the Equitable Health Act, many dispositions over the right to abortion were eliminated from the Republican Party’s project because the parliamentarian argued that there was no direct impeachment impact.
What will be the ultimate palabra?
But, again, parliamentarians are allowed to include in the impeachment of the Republican Party in 2017 the perforation in the National Refuge of New Year’s Eve. In other words, we do not need to declare a form or other with a minimum wage of US $ 15 sobreviviría. Sanders has contracted staff specifically to help navigate this revision by the House of Representatives known as the Byrd House, named by Virginia Occidental Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd. This legislator came up with the rule to avoid any abuse by the parties in the conciliation process and to act in order to approve a legislation that would allow for obstruction.
These conversations are on the market. But it is possible that the Senate parliament will actually push a high on the issue, preventing the Democrats from taking the wrong decision and losing their votes.