“Do we have a plan if she decides it’s not permissible?” says Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) ‘The answer is no.’
Democrats are trying to limit the minimum wage increase in the so-called budget reconciliation process, which will allow them to avoid a GOP filibuster and pass their bill on Covid by 50 Democratic votes. Otherwise, they need ten Republicans to support it, an unlikely proposal given the gaping gap between the two parties over the issue.
Although Republicans passed a bill that would raise wages to $ 10 an hour and strengthen the use of the e-Verify immigration system among employers, Democrats now have little interest in cutting an agreement.
“They do not want a minimum wage,” Sen said. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) said. ‘The public wants it to be done and the public wants a lot of things to be done [Republicans] is not willing to do. ”
Brown said the Democrats discussed among themselves how they should change the legislation to make the Senate pass. But at least two Senate Democrats, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Cinema of Arizona, are against a pay rise to $ 15 as part of the coronavirus bill. And Manchin said he wants to see the minimum wage increase closer to $ 11.
Democrats have ruled out an attempt to reject the parliamentarian’s decision, a move that would mean destroying the filibuster in some other way. Thus, if the parliamentarian enforces the minimum wage language, some Democrats have discussed trying to link it later to a second stimulus package, arguing that the budgetary effects of a change in wages may work better in a labor bill passed under conciliation .
Another option is to encourage small businesses to increase their wages using tax cuts, if it succeeds with the parliamentarian.
“I’m not going to say exactly ‘how the party would handle a setback with the MP,’ said Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Senate Democrat no. 4, said. ‘I really do not want to start negotiating about it right now. ”
But it is difficult to plan without the critical information they need. And when senators left Thursday afternoon to go home for the weekend, the chamber remained in a state of uncertainty over the fate of the minimum wage provision. Bernie Sanders, chair of the Senate Budget Committee (I-Vt.), Argued that the hourly increase should be included in the coronavirus assistance package because raising the minimum wage would increase the deficit.
Senate Republicans argue that the provision is bizarre, would lead to job losses and harm small businesses. They expect the parliamentarian to strike it – which would both avoid a democratic struggle within the parties in the short term and complicate the prospects for a long-term democratic priority.
Although the leaders of the House and the White House were dismissive of the senate’s angry rules, they were not exactly willing to change their own priorities in the short term, even if the bad manners of the upper chamber were doing bad things.
“The call can take us in any direction,” House Ways and Means chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) Said of the parliamentarian’s ruling. But he promised that the House would vote on an increase “no matter what happens” in the parliamentarian’s office.
“If the parliamentarian decides against it for some reason,” Neal said, “you will probably vote in the House fairly quickly.”
Raising the federal minimum wage from the current $ 7.25 is a major campaign promise for Democrats, and the $ 15 is a top priority for progressives and unions. Protecting the Senate Reconciliation Process may be their only opportunity, without changing the legislative filibuster.
“We must pass a minimum wage of $ 15 per hour,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “If we can do it through reconciliation, wonderful. If we can not, we must tackle the filibuster issue and then pass the minimum wage. ”
Even if the MP decides in favor of the wage increase, the coronavirus assistance package can still be amended on the Senate floor when it arrives there early next month. Republicans are keen to highlight the rift between Democrats over the issue and may propose an amendment to water down the increase in the minimum wage. The reconciliation process provides for long-term amendment offers from senators in both parties.
Meanwhile, some Democrats question whether Cinema, Manchin and other undecided Democrats will derail the entire Covid package over the single issue of wages.
The fate of $ 15 an hour “will depend on whether sen. Manchin and sen. Cinema, who have spoken out against it, somehow feel that the greatest benefit of the bill is more important than the specific provision of the minimum wage , “Sen said. Bob Menendez (DN.J.)
One less attractive option Democrats have available is to work with the IDP. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is part of a group of Senate Republicans proposing a minimum wage of $ 10, said Thursday that she believes a two-party compromise could still be possible in the Senate.
“Obviously we need an increase in the minimum wage,” she said. ‘But I do not really think it should be part of the Covid package. … A better way is to bring an account to the floor and see if we can work it out. ‘
The last time the minimum wage got an independent vote on the Senate floor was in 2014, because the Democrats wanted to increase the hourly rate to $ 10.10. That experience has convinced many Democrats that their best way is to win over 50 of their members using a reconciliation bill, as opposed to what many see as fruitless negotiations with Republicans.
“There are a million angles to it,” said Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.). ‘Although there are some differences about how many, and how fast, the exceptions are, it’s such a unit in our caucus. We’ll figure out a way to do that. I’m pretty confident about it. ”