The wave of optimism following the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccines is waning – and this could cause President Biden trouble.
U.S. deaths from the virus hit 80,000 in January, making it the deadliest month in the country. And new strains are causing scientists concern, including a mutation stemming from the UK that is more contagious and potentially more deadly than previously seen.
On Wednesday, the new head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rochelle WalenskyRochelle WalenskyOvernight Health Care: Biden Advisor Makes More Pessimistic Prediction About Vaccine Implementation | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514,000 by 20 February Vaccine research funds have been abused for decades, and the watchdog says CDC projects could see up to 514,000 deaths in the coronavirus by 20 February. Problems Interrupting First COVID-19 Zoom Information Session Under Biden MORE, said the total deaths in the U.S. due to the virus would be about 500,000 on February 20, based on the current job. More than 425,000 people have died so far.
There have also been problems with the implementation of vaccinations, with government officials complaining that they are not getting clarity on how many shots will be available at any given time.
Although the new government has only been in power for one week and can reasonably not be blamed for many of the current issues, the problems in the economy resonate, which poses a major political risk to Biden.
The Dow Jones industrial average and the broader S&P 500 fell more than 2 percent each Wednesday, the latter having the worst day since October, as the Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to zero.
Retail sales have been below expectations for the past two months. The latest monthly employment report showed that the country experienced a net job loss in December for the first time in eight months.
Any further deterioration could hurt Biden’s political capital with sudden speed.
Reasonably or otherwise, he will be held responsible for a prolonged economic malaise, just as President Obama’s polls declined early in his first term as a result of a financial crisis that began under the previous government, caused jobs.
‘I think its approval and popularity, critically and in the first place, depends on the implementation of the vaccine. If it does not go well, he will be blamed whether it is his fault or not, ”says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“If the pandemic is out of order, so is the economy, and he will also be blamed for it,” Zandi added.
There is currently a growing consensus that a rapid economic recovery seems increasingly unlikely.
“The pace of recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated over the past few months, with weakness in the sectors most affected by the pandemic,” the Federal Reserve’s open market committee said in a statement on Wednesday.
Biden is making a major effort to mitigate the economic consequences of COVID-19 with its proposed $ 1.9 billion bailout package. The proposal, which calls for direct payments of up to $ 1,400 for millions of Americans and the minimum wage to be raised to $ 15 an hour, faces uncertain prospects in Congress.
Biden also claimed that the situation with the pandemic was even worse than he feared, and prepared the country for another few months of difficult struggle.
The president spoke in the White House on Tuesday, equating the fight against COVID-19 with “a time of war” and noted that it was “no secret that we recently discovered … the vaccination program is in a worse state” than we expected or expected. ”
Biden has appointed a coronavirus response coordinator and resumes regular White House briefings from medical experts, including Anthony Fauci
Anthony FauciOvernight Health Care: Biden adviser makes more pessimistic predictions about vaccine deployment CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514,000 by February 20 Vaccine research funds have been abused for decades, the watchdog says Fauci has confidence in vaccine companies ready for ‘mutant’ coronavirus strains. Fauci defends Birx: ‘She should have lived in the White House MORE’, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The president promised on Tuesday that states would have a reliable three-week forecast on the stock they will receive in terms of vaccinations.
There were small missteps.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki
Jen PsakiOvernight Health Care: Biden Advisor Provides More Pessimistic Prediction Deployment | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514,000 by Feb. 20 Vaccine research funds have been misused for decades, and watchdog says McCaul is urging senators to block Secretary of Commerce voting on Huawei as White House goes full steam ahead over COVID-19 emergency relief talks told reporters on Tuesday that Biden had not set a concrete goal, when he suggested that 1.5 million people a day would soon receive vaccinations rather than the amount of 1 million.
“The president did not really say, ‘The new goal is …’ The president said, ‘I hope we can do more than that,'” Psaki said.
Biden claims that 300 million Americans could be vaccinated by early fall. In a way, it’s a sign of optimism. But it also underscores how long it takes before something that approaches normal life – or normal economic activity – resumes.
Earlier this week, the California government Gavin Newsom
GAVin NewsomFBI says California extremist may have targeted Newsom The Hill’s Morning Report – Biden pleads for legislative patience, urgent action amid crisis, Portland mayor, pepper spray man after confrontation at restaurant MORE (D) surprised many observers by announcing the mitigation of restrictions, despite the fact that the coronavirus cases in his state have only recently been increased.
“The bigger threat is that Californians will use it as a sign to drop their hats, even if the virus rages,” a Los Angeles Times editorial warned. “The state can not afford to put the cycle one step forward and two steps back that has kept us firmly in the grip of the pandemic.”
Public health experts such as Kavita Patel, a physician and non-resident at the Brookings Institution, fear that there are real dangers ahead.
“I know restrictions are difficult. “People are tired,” she said. “But the new tribes, combined with a tired population, are very worrying – a recipe for disaster.”
The public mood about the virus remains bleak, despite the existence of vaccines.
In an Economist-YouGov poll released Wednesday, only 17 percent of Americans believed “the worst part of the pandemic is behind us.” Nearly twice as many, 31 percent, believed ‘the pandemic is going to get worse’. Thirty-two percent said we are “currently the worst part” of the fight against the virus.
It is still possible that the worst-case scenarios, in terms of public health and economic impact, could be averted.
The vaccination process can improve, the new virus mutations can have minimal consequences, and economically the pent-up demand can drive new growth as the threat to health decreases.
At the moment, however, it seems anything but certain.
“The economy is struggling and the path of the pandemic has become uncertain,” Zandi said.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.