The Maple Leafs make their most convincing Stanley Cup case in years

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Toronto Maple Leafs are finally here, eventually begin to realize their full potential.

After beating the Edmonton Oilers 3-0 on Monday night, the team has won six of its last seven games and 17 of 23 overall this season. Toronto now leads the NHL’s Canadian North Division by a substantial 7 points, the largest of any frontrunner in the division. According to simulations using our Elo ratings, the Leafs are the best favorite (75 percent) to win the North. They also have a 9 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup – tied with the Vegas Golden Knights for the third best chance in the league.

Either way, 2021 has been an extremely successful start for a Toronto team that has spent the past few seasons celebrating its championship aspirations with its uneven results on the ice. Yes, Stanley Cup talks are usually … premature for a franchise that owns the sport’s longest active title drought (52 seasons and counting). But this Leafs season could actually be something special. The 17 wins are tied at 1933-34 and 1934-35 for the franchise’s second best ever start in 23 games, and Toronto’s simple scoring system (SRS) score of +0.96 goals per game is also on track to beat the second best be in team history.

The most attention-grabbing part of Toronto’s early success is undoubtedly a strong offense that finished second to defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the game-per-game score, which yielded 3.52 goals per night. Leading scorers Mitch Marner (33 points in 23 games) and Auston Matthews (31 in 20) are both among the top five in the league in points so far this season, with Matthews burning the net for the best 18 goals in the league . Statistically, Matthews and Marner even teamed up in the same area as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of Edmonton as a combination of always. While the Oilers duo remain the undisputed top tooth in the game today, Matthews-Marner ’21 is set to be the NHL’s 13th best attacking combination since 1942-43 (the dawn of the Original Six era), according to the goals above the replacement. .

In some ways, the mere score of Marner and Matthews also obscured how impressive the rest of Toronto’s attack was. Forwards John Tavares and William Nylander also scored nearly one point per game (both have 19 points in 23 games), and D-man Morgan Rielly is tied for fifth place among blue liners with 18 points. Meanwhile, veterans Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton have turned back the clock with their best performances in years. The 41-year-old “Jumbo Joe” scored the championship that eluded him throughout his career, scoring ten points in ten games and – if he is healthy – seeing ice time on the Leafs’ side with Matthews and Marner (whose combined 46 years old is only slightly older than Thornton himself). Even with Matthews along the sideline the last few games with a wrist injury, the Leafs have been able to count 3.5 goals per game, a number that fits into their normal production.

But while it’s impressive, none of it is exactly new. The Leafs have boasted electrifying offensive talent over the past few seasons, finishing third last season in goals per game and fourth in 2018-19 and 2017-18. The right missing ingredients in Toronto’s Cup recipe have traditionally meant that the other team to score – an area that almost completely collapsed last season as Toronto finished 26th in the least goals per game, 18th in the save percentage and 23rd in the least allowable chances.

However, these weaknesses have largely reversed this year. General manager Kyle Dubas made an effort during the off-season to sharpen the team’s sift-through defense, adding TJ Brodie, Zach Bogosian and Mikko Lehtonen on the blue line to keep up with Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl. He also acquired goalkeeper Michael Hutchinson as an assurance in the net to play Frederik Andersen and Jack Campbell. The results were unmistakable in the second season of coach Sheldon Keefe behind the bench of Toronto: The Leafs now stand fourth in the least allowed goals, fourth in the save percentage (despite injuries to both Andersen and Campbell) and the eighth place in the fewest points allowed per game. With 5 on 5 with the score close, Toronto ranks 10th in Corsi percentage – a power of attorney that measures a team’s share of all shot attempts in the game – and eighth in the expected goal differential per 60 minutes (which the quality of their shots is better than the quality of the photos they allow on the other side).

In other words, almost any measure, the Leafs have improved significantly in the areas of play that have held back their Cup hopes over the past few years.

This was especially evident in the first two games of their three games that were on the road this week against Edmonton. As mentioned, the Oilers possess one of the most powerful attacks in the league, led by the historic combination of McDavid and Draisaitl. They were also one of the NHL’s hotter teams to participate in the series, winning five in a row and 11 of 13 before meeting Toronto. But the Leafs closed out Edmonton’s star duo, which kept them at zero points and a combined rating of -5, and as a result, they closed out the Oilers in rugby games with a combined score of 7-0.

The fact that Matthews is missing for both games – and that Hutchinson only finds himself in the second game – the win over Edmonton was perhaps the best proof that it’s not just the same old Toronto Maple Leafs. It could even be an indication that this is the year the team is finally building its reputation for disappointment in the playoffs (not a playoff series since 2004) and overall underperformance.

Of course, there is still a lot of season left for the Leafs to return to their usual way. Take the 2018-19 season as a point of comparison: The team started the year by winning 26 of its first 38 games and seemed like a strong choice to challenge the mighty. Lightning coming from the Eastern Conference. But a slowdown in the second half, limited by a total swim on the piece – four wins in the last 14 games of the regular season – predicted a seven-game loss in the first round against the Boston Bruins, who share forming part of the franchise’s three-game losing streak. (with four losses in the last five chances) in the play-off match 7.

But the team has been defensively flawed in the way this year’s version seems to have overcome – at least so far. It also did not have as much top offensive firepower, with younger versions of Matthews and Marner not yet reaching their current heights. The Leafs hope the 2021 edition, on the other hand, has just the right mix of ingredients to keep it playing through the regular season and in the playoffs. And for once, hope does not seem quite as far-fetched as usual.