The Israeli general says it will be difficult to stop the nuclear program

While Iran increases uranium enrichment to 60%, a short jump to military grade at 90%, world powers are trying to entice the Islamic Republic to take a break.

Meetings to return Iran and the United States to a form of the nuclear deal signed in 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, resumed in Austria this week.

Although Israel is not part of the talks, it is a major player in the drama that could increase rapidly.

Israel, along with its Arab allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, want the US to increase pressure on Iran by strengthening the JCPOA to counter terrorism, missile development and what they call “Iran’s expansionism” in the whole Middle East call, to include.

Iran and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war that has escalated over the past month. An explosion disrupted one of Iran’s nuclear power plants in Natanz; one of Iran’s spy ships was hit by an explosive device in the Red Sea; and at least two cargo ships owned by Israel were targeted.

Iran’s decision to increase uranium enrichment comes after the explosion in Natanz, which blames the Islamic Republic of Israel.

Israel has promised to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if all else fails, and they have experience in the arena.

Forty years ago, in June 1981, eight Israeli F-16s took off, flew over the Red Sea, crossed the Jordanian-Saudi border and dropped their bombs on Iraq’s nuclear power station in Osirak before it warmed up. It was called Operation Opera and one of the pilots was Gen. Amos Yadlin.

In 2007, while serving as head of military intelligence for the Israeli army, Yadlin helped design a second operation. This one targeted Syria’s secret nuclear power plant. Operation Orchard was also a success – the target was completely destroyed.

Yadlin said if it came down to it, this time it would be very different: “Saddam and Assad were surprised. Iran has been waiting 20 years for this attack.”

Yadlin said Iran’s program was ‘much more strengthened and diversified’, while Iraq and Syria’s nuclear programs were concentrated in one place. Iran’s nuclear program has been buried in dozens of sites, very deep beneath mountains. Moreover, it is not clear that intelligence agencies know all the details about the locations of the Iran program.

“Iran has learned from what we have done, but we have also learned from what we have done and now we have more capabilities,” Yadlin said.

Military planners in Israel say, despite the talks in Vienna, they have five strategies to stop Iran:

• Option 1: Strive for a stronger agreement between Iran, the USA, Russia, China, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
• Option 2: Demonstrate to Iran that the cost in terms of sanctions and diplomacy is too great to continue on the current path.
• Option 3: What is known in Israel as “Strategy C” – using covert attacks, covert actions and cyber attacks. Try essentially everything that does not have war.
• Option 4: Bombard the nuclear program of Iran.
• Option 5: Insist on regime change in Iran. This is the most difficult strategy.

Due to the strength of the ayatollahs – their control over the army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and a powerful force known for its brutality, the Basij – inciting internal rebellion is a long shot.

According to the government, Ali Nader, an analyst from Iran at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, is leading a number of protest marches in the country. The main reason for the protests is a shaky economy that has been hit hard by US sanctions, which serve as the main US leverage against Iran in the core talks in Vienna.

“The US has a complete stranglehold on Iran’s economy,” Nader said. In 2018, Iran had cash reserves worth more than $ 120 billion. As a result of sanctions, stocks fell to about $ 4 billion in 2020, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund.

The first thing Iran wants during these talks is for the US to ease the sanctions and sell oil freely to Asia and Europe. According to the International Energy Agency, which monitors oil production and shipments, Iran is circumventing sanctions and increasing supply to China.

In January, Iranian oil shipments to China reached record levels. Nader believes that by not doing more to enforce the sanctions, the US is signaling that it is ready to enter into an agreement.

The big question for the conversations, however, is who has the leverage in what becomes a game of chicken.

Henry Rome is watching the negotiations as an analyst for Eurasia Group. He does not expect a collapse or a breakthrough as both parties try to get the other one moving.

While Iran is set to elect a new president within two months, Rome said “Iran does not want to be seen as desperate. The supreme leader would prefer to wait until after the June 18 election before making any concessions.”

“Iran is playing a weak hand, but they are very good at it,” Rome said.

Yadlin is nervous, the US will be too eager for a deal and give away too much, and repeat what he calls are the flaws of the 2015 deal. Yadlin points to Iran’s enrichment performance and achieves the symbolic 60% mark.

“The first deal is a problem, look at how fast it moves,” Yadlin said. “They could have enough enriched uranium to get to two or three bombs quickly.”

While there is still some work to be done in terms of delivery methods and weapons, there is no doubt about Yadlin that they have the knowledge to make nuclear bombs.