The biggest question the Eagles are facing today is one they cannot honestly answer.
Should they stick with Jalen Hurts or play a quarterback?
The immediate future of the franchise depends on them getting it right. And the scary thing is that they can know no way.
There’s just no possible way Howie Roseman, Nick Sirianni and the rest of the Eagles’ brain trust can sit there in the NovaCare complex and decide with any degree of certainty what they have in Hurts.
After 3 1/2 games? Playing behind that offensive line and those receivers? In an offense where the running game virtually did not exist?
No one can further evaluate Hurts: there were moments where he looked really, really good and moments where he looked really, really bad.
Like every young quarter.
It’s not enough to go on.
Ty Detmer, Kevin Kolb and Bobby Hoying were 8-3-1 along with 18 TDs and 9 TDs in their first four careers. They were the rest of their careers 15-32-1 with 61 TDs and 68 TDs.
Conversely, Randall Cunningham and Donovan McNabb were a combined 2-6 with 6 TDs and 10 INTs in their first four starts. But we all know how their careers went after that.
No one knows after four games.
But literally any team that has a top-10 pick and does not have an established quarterback will consider drafting one. You have to. This is where you find guys like Peyton Manning, Josh Allen or Pat Mahomes.
There are always exceptions. Drew Brees was a second choice. Russell Wilson was a 3. We all know that Tom Brady was a 6.
But your best chance of nailing a franchise QB is in the first round. High in the first round.
There have been 58 Pro Bowl QBs drawn up since 2000. Nearly half (28) were taken in the first 12 picks. Three were taken later in the 1st round, six in the 2nd round, four in the 3rd round, four in the 4th round and then 13 at different places in the 5th round and thereafter or undefeated.
The second round is the second most likely place to find an elite QB, and the first 12 picks are almost five times more likely.
And the Eagles pick at number 6.
And this is only the third time in the last twenty years that they have had a top-six pick and only the sixth time in 45 years. And we know they consider themselves a Quarterback Factory.
These opportunities therefore do not occur frequently.
This is what makes it so difficult.
If you take a receiver or a corner or something else at number 6 and go with Hurts, you may win a Super Bowl at some point, but remember that Brees, Brett Favre and Ken Stabler are the only choices in the second round ever is winning a Super Bowl.
And if Hurts is not that guy, then who knows when your next opportunity will come to pick this highlight? The Eagles did not appear in the top 10 between Corey Simon in 2000 and Lane Johnson in 2013.
Maybe Hurts is terrible and you get right back there in 2022 and sign your quarterback. Maybe he’s an elite and you do not have to worry about it for a decade.
This is the great middle ground that is so worrying. He’s good enough to keep you competitive, but not good enough to win anything.
Then you sit outside the top 10 without a franchise QB.
Setting up a guy in the first few choices is also a risk. No one knows if Justin Fields or Zach Wilson or Trey Lance will also be The Guy. No one needs to be reminded of Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler or Akili Smith.
But pick early in the 1st round and you have history on your side.
The Eagles really put themselves in a ridiculous position last April. Drafting Hurts set in motion a series of events that landed the most important position in the team in chaos.
And all they can do now is guess what they have and guess what they need. They can not afford to be wrong.
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