Three years from today, on Monday, April 8, 2024, more than half a million people in North America will probably use a few moments of their daily routine and look into the air to see one of nature’s great shows . : an eclipse of the sun.
And those who are lucky enough to stretch along a narrow path that stretches across northern Mexico through parts of 15 U.S. states will have the opportunity to what many people come to call the most spectacular heavenly roadshows – a total solar eclipse.
Many readers will definitely remember “The Great American Eclipse of 2017. “This event rightly received considerable media attention. It was the first total eclipse of the sun visible from the neighboring (48) United States since 1979, the first since 1918 to go from coast to coast, and the first the total solar eclipse visible from the United States in the 21st century, and it was also the very first time in modern history that the path of totality was visible only within the borders of the United States and no other country.
Video: Total solar eclipse in April 2024 – Look at the path of totality
Related: Total solar eclipse 2024: here’s what you need to know
A spectacle for solar eclipses
It was an amazing experience for all who saw the sky, suddenly darkened to mid twilight levels and with it, the sudden appearance of stars and planets in what was just moments earlier a day sky.
Then, of course, there was the incredible corona, the outer atmosphere of the sun, which was only visible during those precious moments when the solar disk was completely obscured by the moon. And in some places around the dark limb of the moon, there were also prominences – pink tongues of glowing hydrogen gas – clear. And as the first rays of rising sunlight streak along the rugged rough edge of the moon, a ‘diamond ring’ is briefly created that signifies a sudden end to ‘The Greatest Show on Earth’.
But the best is yet to come. Because as spectacular as ‘The Great American Eclipse of 2017’ was, an even better eclipse is on the way in 2024.
‘The Great North American solar eclipse’, which will begin in Mexico, passes into Texas, then passes northeast into the Ohio River Valley, upstate New York, Quebec, Canada and New England, and eventually leaves the mainland by the Canadians. Maritimes. And it’s not too early to start making plans to see it!
Related: The most amazing photos of the 2017 total solar eclipse
A standout among total eclipses
Since the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the dark shadow cone of the moon – called the ombra – from which the spectacle of a total eclipse can be seen, has swept over parts of the lower 48 states only 21 times. The duration of the total eclipse ranged from just one second (April 28, 1930) to an incredibly long 5 minutes and 20 seconds (June 24, 1778). The average duration of all twenty-one cases is 2 minutes and 12 seconds.
For the eclipse of August 21, 2017, the maximum duration was 2 minutes 40 seconds, which was almost half a minute longer than the US average.
But on April 8, 2024, the maximum duration will be as long as 4 minutes and 26 seconds (in southwest Texas). It is 135 seconds longer than the US average and 40 percent longer as the maximum duration of the eclipse of 2017.
Related: The Greatest Solar Eclipses in American History
In fact, of the 21 previous totalities that hovered over the current adjacent U.S. borders, only two surpass the 2024 eclipse in terms of the duration of the total: the above-mentioned 1778 eclipse and the 16 June 1806 eclipse (4 minutes and 52 minutes). seconds). The latter eclipse is known for the observations by José Joaquín de Ferrer, a Spanish astronomer who wrote the first corona ‘for the ray of light surrounding the dark sun during totality’, and by James Fenimore Cooper, who shared his own experience of this eclipse of Cooperstown. , New York in an autobiographical vignette.
The width of the total road of the 2024 eclipse will also be extraordinary: the shadow for the previous 21 eclipses in the US was on average 150 kilometers wide. In 2017 it was about 115 kilometers wide, but in 2024 the total road will be significantly larger and 200 kilometers wide.
A great audience!
Usually, the path of most solar eclipses tends to have a perverse habit of sweeping over remote parts of the earth or over wide parts of the ocean and avoiding large population centers. In 2024 not so.
In Mexico, the cities of Mazatlán (population 503,000), Durango (pop. 655,000) and Torreon (pop. 735,000) are within the total road. In the United States, Dallas, Texas (pop. 1.3 million) will be the largest population center, followed by Austin (pop. 951,000), Indianapolis, Indiana (pop. 864,000), Cleveland, Ohio (pop. 385,000), Buffalo , New York (pop. 256 000) and Rochester (pop. 207 000).
And there are many other big cities like San Antonio, Texas, St. Louis, Missouri, Louisville, Kentucky, Cincinnati and Columbus in Ohio, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, which are less than a few hours drive from the zone of totality.
The largest city that will witness the total eclipse will be in Canada: Montreal, Quebec, (about 1.8 million).
Interestingly, across the lower Ohio Valley, the totality roads of 2017 and 2024 intersect. On average, a specific geographic location is treated approximately once every 375 years with a total solar eclipse. But Carbondale, Illinois – what it has christened the city “Eclipse Crossroads” – will experience totality again in 2024, less than 7 years after experiencing the total eclipse of 2017!
Weather forecast
According to Canadian meteorologist Jay Anderson, who studied the climatic conditions for many years before the coming solar eclipses: ‘April is a transitional month across the continent, with winter storms gradually giving way to the convective build-up of spring and summer. Mexico, the dry winter season is in its last month before the summer rains begin. Across the United States, southern parts of the runway are already far into the thunderstorm season, while in the north spring storms and occasional avalanches are another indication of departure. winter. In Maritime Canada, the last snow has yet to melt and fresh snowfall is a threat to every weather system. “
The best probability for good weather is in Mexico, where cloud cover varies from just about 20% to about 50% on the Texas border. In contrast to these conditions, the weather forecast in the United States is marginal, if not entirely unfavorable. Climatological records indicate that the average cloud cover increases by about 50-60% in Texas, northeast of the Missouri-Illinois border, and then jumps nearly 80 percent to the Indiana-Ohio border. Near and along the Great Lakes, cloud cover drops again to about 60-65%, before rising above 80% again for Quebec, Northern New England and the Maritimes. You can get more details on the Eclipsophile website here.
But even in the most pessimistic regions, one only has to remember the famous aphorism attributed to science fiction writer Robert Heinlein: “Climate is what you expect, but again it is what you get!”
The weather in April in the United States and southern Canada is indeed much more volatile than in Mexico, so there is hope everywhere for a very clear sky on the day of the eclipse.
And as we get closer to the special day, Space.com will provide detailed coverage for prospective eclipse hunters, so mark your calendars and stay tuned!
Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for Natural History Journal, the Farmers’ Almanac and other publications. follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and so on Facebook.